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  • #621
  • Aug 17, 2009 3:13pm Aug 17, 2009 3:13pm
Major Atlantic storms fail to stir energy prices

HOUSTON - The season's first Atlantic hurricane and two other storms have done nothing to spur a rise in energy prices, largely because supplies are high and demand low, but oil companies are keeping close watch on their offshore operations in the Gulf of Mexico.After a quiet start to the 2009 hurricane season, three storms whipped up in recent days, though none appears to pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf's massive energy complex.

Crude prices fell to new lows for the month Monday, dropping to around $65 a barrel, and natural gas prices slumped to new lows as well.

Pump prices have changed little in the past week. On average, a gallon of regular unleaded was selling for $2.641 on Monday, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and the Oil Price Information Service. That's less than a penny lower than average price a week ago.

The apparent indifference to storms in the Atlantic stands in stark contrast to last year, when oil prices ticked higher as tropical depressions formed.

Several factors are involved, the biggest of which is a recession that's crushed energy demand at home and abroad. U.S. crude inventories rose again last week and are nearly 20 percent above year-ago levels. Natural-gas supplies also are bloated.



link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32450693/for/cnbc/
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #622
  • Aug 17, 2009 3:44pm Aug 17, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting Popee83
Now more tough love to the rookies ... we get into the 'calculus' of human behavior .. no more geometry and simple algebra ...

Hence, start by digesting this book if you haven't already .... no more baby steps ... now we hit the ground proper for more serious trade analogies.

We understand mob behavior ... Here we go .. hope you enjoy
Thanks for the reading matter - here is something which also features selling to the crowds .... keep up the good work

http://www.tradethetruth.com/pics/mtmv3.pdf
  • #623
  • Aug 17, 2009 3:54pm Aug 17, 2009 3:54pm
Quoting Popee83
Whats up ... How was the day .. a blast I hope!
Yup, good day - currently trading London breakouts on M15.

Hope you took the profits on offer this week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: london eur breakouts.jpg Size: 176 KB
  • #624
  • Aug 17, 2009 4:09pm Aug 17, 2009 4:09pm
Quoting macman
Thanks for the reading matter - here is something which also features selling to the crowds .... keep up the good work

http://www.tradethetruth.com/pics/mtmv3.pdf
This link isn't opening .. I can only access upto : http://www.tradethetruth.com/

Anyways, been looking at your charts, impressive. I see you are playing the m15 Tf scalps. Am currently not able to trade on scalps due to my schedule. Hence am applying the analysis I use on the NSE 20 Index (our local bourse) for my swings and including some fundamentals in the mix.


So, what do you think about the allegation that insiders in the states are selling? I bet the usual. They may jerk up the PA about 100 to 200 pips before dumping them again to create a false bullish impression. Lets wait and see 2morrow if they will pull this stunt. We call them 'squeezes' or 'milking'. The sell-offs that ensue are usually characteristically sharp and intense following these false pull-ups.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #625
  • Edited 4:33pm Aug 17, 2009 4:20pm | Edited 4:33pm
Quoting macman
Thanks for the reading matter - here is something which also features selling to the crowds .... keep up the good work

http://www.tradethetruth.com/pics/mtmv3.pdf
Got it man, thanx

http://www.tradethetruth.com/pics/

Hey Macman, I think all readers should upload a copy .. it is 17.5 MB ... and virtually the truth! Will dig into it in depth ..
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #626
  • Edited 4:36pm Aug 17, 2009 4:33pm | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting Popee83
This link isn't opening .. I can only access upto : http://www.tradethetruth.com/

Anyways, been looking at your charts, impressive. I see you are playing the m15 Tf scalps. Am currently not able to trade on scalps due to my schedule. Hence am applying the analysis I use on the NSE 20 Index (our local bourse) for my swings and including some fundamentals in the mix.

...
No doubt in my mind insiders will be selling by now. Watch out for the next 'bad news' pretext to trigger the falls.

The enclosed read on VSA should prove interesting for a dedicated market watcher.

Just found a short version - also attached

Be careful out there !!

p.s. Added the rest of charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: london aud chf breakouts.jpg Size: 171 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: london gbp nzd breakouts.jpg Size: 177 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: london usd breakouts.jpg Size: 178 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf VSA BASICS from MTM.pdf   1.6 MB | 233 downloads
  • #627
  • Aug 17, 2009 4:40pm Aug 17, 2009 4:40pm
Quoting macman
No doubt in my mind insiders will be selling by now. Watch out for the next 'bad news' pretext to trigger the falls.

The enclosed read on VSA should prove interesting for a dedicated market watcher.

Just found a short version - also attached

Be careful out there !!

p.s. Added the rest of charts.
Sure man. Am now short but still careful of the jerk-ups. These insiders pull the 'squeeze' to shake off all the jittery traders. One of the hardest things for a trader is sitting tight amidst all shake-ups....
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #628
  • Aug 17, 2009 4:47pm Aug 17, 2009 4:47pm
Quoting Popee83
Sure man. Am now short but still careful of the jerk-ups. These insiders pull the 'squeeze' to shake off all the jittery traders. One of the hardest things for a trader is sitting tight amidst all shake-ups....
Right, which is why right now I am only scalping M15 short term - only trading what I can see.

See ya
  • #629
  • Aug 18, 2009 11:33am Aug 18, 2009 11:33am
Fiber h4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber_18th.gif Size: 28 KB


Cable h4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_18th.gif Size: 26 KB


Xau h4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau_18th.gif Size: 27 KB


Massive buy-back on cable as well as on the major stock indices in US. Am really 'milked' as of now but I'll not be covering, I can take the modest drawdown. Fiber didn't see much action. Gold is still not very much moved. Generally, am still short and waiting for the ultimate 138.2 fib S to determine next action.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #630
  • Aug 18, 2009 12:04pm Aug 18, 2009 12:04pm
Investors Brace for Correction, But Just How Bad Will It Be?

Financial markets keep giving investors a scare — usually beginning with a tumble in Chinese shares which then ripple across other assets elsewhere.

It is all about whether the sharp stock market rally of 2009 is about to break and a hefty correction is in the offing.


http://media.cnbc.com/j/CNBC/Section...ers1.small.jpg

Henny Ray Abrams / AP PHOTOS


Anything can happen, of course, but some of the conditions that have propelled stocks, commodities and other risk assets higher since March —notably huge government stimuli —are still in place.
A
s long as they remain, its seems likely investors will be spared a significant sell-off.


The latest scare, triggered by poor U.S. consumer confidence data, saw a Wall Street selloff spill into Monday, when Shanghai stocks dived nearly 6 percent, world stocks as measured by MSCI fell close to 3 percent and the VIX volatility index had its biggest daily gain since April.


The higher the volatility index, the lower investors' appetite for risky assets such as equities.


Tuesday's rebound — world stocks rising, China up 1.4 percent — suggests the party is not over yet. But the reason for concern is understandable.
Shares have recovered so much, so quickly since March that a correction is seen by many investors as almost inevitable.


It took the MSCI world stock index around 10 months to fall 100 points from its November 2007 high, but only five months to gain that amount on the way back up from this year's low.It stands 53 percent higher than it did on March 9.


Other recovery-sensitive assets have seen similar growth.


link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32460932


NB:
I have marked out the outstanding info. from the report in RED.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #631
  • Aug 18, 2009 12:26pm Aug 18, 2009 12:26pm
The Shake-Out
"A shake-out can be defined as a sudden wide spread down, usually on bad news. It is engineered to create panic selling, thus helping the transfer of stock back to the professional traders.
This is usually seen after a bull move has been running for some time. You would expect higher prices after this event.
A true selling climax looks the same as this shake-out does; the big difference is that on a selling climax you will have a Bear Market behind you"

Exerpt from VSA Basics from MTM (file already attached by Macman)


Hence, I believe today and tomorrow we might see the pros who sold off most of their stocks on monday wanting their certs (certificates) back. The jerk-ups should cause the folks holding the certs to sell them back since the markets are moving higher. Todays buy-back isn't convincing enough to cause most jittery traders to let go of the equity certs. More buy-backs should be seen be4 a another serious tailspin.

But the correction is still intact. Tomorrow we risk seeing another buy-back.Personally am still short though.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #632
  • Aug 18, 2009 1:33pm Aug 18, 2009 1:33pm
Quoting Popee83
The Shake-Out
 It is engineered to create panic selling, thus helping the transfer of stock back to the professional traders.

Hence, I believe today and tomorrow we might see the pros who sold off most of their stocks on monday wanting their certs (certificates) back. The jerk-ups should cause the folks holding the certs to sell them back since the markets are moving higher. Todays buy-back isn't convincing enough to cause most jittery traders to let go of the equity certs. More buy-backs...
So, if you hold a modest account size, it is not a very wise idea to be short atm. If you are an active day trader you should go long but carefully monitoring the trades to avoid a pull-back upset.

The tape shows we stand a pretty good chance to see buy-backs up to the the 23.6 fib (maroon) if not the 38.2 fib - especially cable. I'll wait and see how 2morrow goes and then I'll cover.

A good way of measuring the strenghth of a bull or bear mkt with regards to the fundamentals is watching how the traders react to the news. In a bull mkt, good news are always exaggerated by the buying and bad news down played, while in a bear mkt, the opposite is as true ..
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #633
  • Aug 18, 2009 2:29pm Aug 18, 2009 2:29pm
Where's the Selloff?

Everyone on the Street is expecting a pullback, so where's the selloff?Today was a great chance to drop the markets: We opened up fractionally, and immediately sellers emerged.


This is the classic short play: Short the market hard right after the market opens up, and see how far you can push it down.


It didn't work; the S&P [SPX 990.82 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...tchlist_up.gif 11.09 (+1.13%) http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ltime_icon.gif] dropped all of 3 points before stocks began rallying just before 10 AM ET. We are now just off the highs of the day.


Still, the pullback talk is everywhere, and most are eager for it to come.
The talk is of a pullback of at least 10 percent, that would bring the S&P 500 back to the 900-910 level.

Cannacord Adams said that a "more cautious tone is clearly being established and the chances of a real pullback are increasing."
Lowry, the oldest technical analysis service, this morning said, "the correction from the August 13 rally highs probably has further to run."
The correction? We're only down 2 percent from the August 13th highs! Yeesh!


The bears believe that the markets will drop in September and October when its obvious that we won't get the boost in consumer spending that we are expecting, and that the Asian recovery is based largely on short-term stimulus from Japan and China. Bears believe the market will have difficulty rallying for the rest of the year.


The bulls believe we will get a drop on overbought conditions, but they want the market to drop so they can BUY AT A LOWER PRICE.


The majority of traders are in the second camp right now, even though they believe fundamentals are poor.


Bulls have a strong argument: we already know we won't get the boost in consumer spending, and the markets are hardly falling apart!




link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32463495
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #634
  • Aug 18, 2009 3:32pm Aug 18, 2009 3:32pm
Just tried to simplify charts to make retracements better visible ... (hopefully)

Fiber h4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber_18th.gif Size: 34 KB


Cable h4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_18th.gif Size: 31 KB



Good trading ya'll 2morrow. Am now trading like a big boy .... though a little shaken ( but not moved ) by the tape reading atm. I still maintain that the correction is real, but the buy-backs aren't yet done. The climax could see cable running upto the 23.6 fib (maroon)~ 1.6700 region - same goes for fiber.

Hence, careful now and good luck. Trade with an open mind.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #635
  • Aug 19, 2009 11:08am Aug 19, 2009 11:08am
Anyone squeezed? If so make sure you can withstand upto the 23.6 fib.
Buy backs .... though a thin market.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #636
  • Aug 19, 2009 12:38pm Aug 19, 2009 12:38pm
Quoting Popee83
Anyone squeezed? If so make sure you can withstand upto the 23.6 fib.
Buy backs .... though a thin market.
Attached Image



"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #637
  • Aug 19, 2009 12:47pm Aug 19, 2009 12:47pm
Free lunch ... anyone?

Attached Image


This cannot be over-emphasized ... I just saw a false oil inventories report ... Seriously folks ... who are we kidding here ...
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #638
  • Aug 19, 2009 1:34pm Aug 19, 2009 1:34pm
Where Do Bulls and Bears Come From? from David Lamb

"I've often wondered why the epithets Bull and Bear are used to describe the particular directions of market movements. For instance, I have witnessed first hand how aggressive the Bear is every day, just to survive. The Bull, on the other hand, is lazy most of the day, grazes when he pleases, and is not often dependable on the one thing he is used for: breeding.
In nature it seems to me that the Bear is a much more eccentric, powerful, and aggressive beast than the Bull. If I were to use the same epithets for the markets I think I would choose just the opposite of how they are used now."

Attached Image


Currently just posting cartoons ... will post charts later on when the NY session closes
Today in my local bourse I had 14 massive buy orders in one of our leading financial bank with instructions from the banks asset manager to damp them on Friday ... I urged him to hold at least until September, but he was too nervous .. All in all the NSE 20 closed down 12 points.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #639
  • Edited 2:09pm Aug 19, 2009 1:53pm | Edited 2:09pm
Where Do Bulls and Bears Come From? from David Lamb

Attached Image


"I have wondered the same thing for years. I agree with your assessment. It seems like it should be the other way around. There has to be some kind of a story as to why "Bulls and Bears" were chosen, but I don't know it.

I have looked deeper into this bull/bear dichotomy and have come up with these conclusions. Bears do hibernate each year for a long time. Contrary to what you see on the Discovery channel, bears aren't all that aggressive all the time and are pretty laid back most of the time. They have to work hard for their food, and there is great competition associated with food, and they never know where their next meal is coming from. Further, the fun activities (such as breeding) are highly competitive.


Bulls, which do lay around a lot, are actually pretty aggressive until they've established a pecking order (similar to bears), but then again once that's established they go about living their lives and get along pretty well. But then when you look at a bulls, you are only really looking at a "successful" bull. You see, most bulls are not successful, they're hamburger in your fridge! The successful ones live long prosperous lives, eating good food, getting pampered (by bovine standards), and their most important job is to propagate the species!


Just think about that! It's every school boy’s dream (and middle-aged guy’s dream)! Spend your life being pampered, being fed good food, and hanging out with the guys! And all we've got to do to keep that job is have copious amounts of sex!


I'll take the job of "successful bull" over being a bear any day!
Reminds me of the joke about a father bull and his son standing on top of a hill looking down at a herd of cows. Son says to dad, "Hey dad, lets run down the hill and have sex with one of those cows!" Dad says, "No son, lets walk down hill and have sex with all of them!"

(Scott Brooks comments)

link:
 www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=1898
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #640
  • Aug 19, 2009 2:24pm Aug 19, 2009 2:24pm
Attached Image



LOL ...
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
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