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  • #131,861
  • Aug 16, 2009 6:35am Aug 16, 2009 6:35am
I see a down trend at H4 that could break the up trend. What you see as horizontal resistance line I see it as a respect to the down trend at H4. Price met the trend line and left the short term up trend

Cheers,
Reza

Quoting knuckledrag
Just sitting around waiting for Best Buy to open (need another hard drive), going through FF. I looked at your blog and yes it makes sense to me. However I place far less importance on diagonal trend lines than some.

My reasoning in not trusting trend lines is simple. Those charts we all love so much are in effect nothing more than a clock designed to show the progression of orders being filled in time increments of our choosing (ie 1hr,4hr,5min).

Horizontal support and resistance on the other hand has the effect of showing where price is defended...
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  • #131,862
  • Aug 16, 2009 6:49am Aug 16, 2009 6:49am
Expected for this week:

 

  1. Trend is bullish but upside may be limited as it will be a weak buy.
  2. We can expect 1.43 but stop loss must be kept around 1.4250.
  3. If 1.4250 is broken, 1.4150 is very likely, followed by 1.4105.
  4. If 1.4304 is broken, look for 1.4338, 1.4387 followed by 1.4446.
  5. Would be looking for scalps this week on dips instead of holding on to intra day positions.




Resistance: 1.4304, 1.4338, 1.4387, 1.4446
Support: 1.4269, 1.4250, 1.4221, 1.4196, 1.4150, 1.4015

Charts on blog.

  • #131,863
  • Aug 16, 2009 7:31am Aug 16, 2009 7:31am
hahahaah i like FF not only because of forex.. i think we have many friends here too
  • #131,864
  • Aug 16, 2009 7:52am Aug 16, 2009 7:52am
Quoting Hell7
I've posted this weekly chart and several daily ones under news.

Enjoy.
Looks like starting a weekly downtrend there. That level seems a bit tough to break.
  • #131,865
  • Aug 16, 2009 8:27am Aug 16, 2009 8:27am
EUR-USD WEEKLY chart shows a doji (indicision) candle. With a "shooting star" from the week before IMO we have made a short term top.

Counting the waves IMO we should see a pull-back. How far of a pull-back we will actually see is not certain. We do have some important economic reports coming out this week which should move the market.
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  • #131,866
  • Aug 16, 2009 8:43am Aug 16, 2009 8:43am
Quoting 5ysfx
man go to park, pool anywhere
do something...
I'm going to barbecue and ate me some grilled koala and dingo
  • #131,867
  • Aug 16, 2009 9:07am Aug 16, 2009 9:07am
Quoting candlesticks
EUR-USD WEEKLY chart shows a doji (indicision) candle. With a "shooting star" from the week before IMO we have made a short term top.

Counting the waves IMO we should see a pull-back. How far of a pull-back we will actually see is not certain. We do have some important economic reports coming out this week which should move the market.
how about a 38.2% or 50% retracement? assuming, 2 candles ago was indeed the peak of the movement.
  • #131,868
  • Aug 16, 2009 9:48am Aug 16, 2009 9:48am
posting a couple of charts with those same historic diag fibs..bears are not in the woods yet.. bulls need to get above friday 4253. if we turn bullish thursdays posted levels are still in play (all 3 chart levels). on the smaller chart the bull/bear divergence could go either way.. i charted predictive bear moves lows... with the light blue blue and red lines.. you can see the historic fibs and a estimated level for them at that moment in time. those diag fibs are labeled with normal fibs and some custom numbers as well..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #131,869
  • Aug 16, 2009 10:23am Aug 16, 2009 10:23am
This is my chart for next week.
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Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #131,870
  • Aug 16, 2009 10:36am Aug 16, 2009 10:36am
Quoting candlesticks
EUR-USD WEEKLY chart shows a doji (indicision) candle. With a "shooting star" from the week before IMO we have made a short term top.

Counting the waves IMO we should see a pull-back. How far of a pull-back we will actually see is not certain. We do have some important economic reports coming out this week which should move the market.

Hello Candlesticks - nice chart. Interesting you mention economic reports. Which ones are you referring to?

This pair seems (for me in anycase) not to respond so much to economic releases as cable. I think it will more move with equities this coming week.
  • #131,871
  • Aug 16, 2009 10:50am Aug 16, 2009 10:50am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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my chart for tomorrow
  • #131,872
  • Aug 16, 2009 11:29am Aug 16, 2009 11:29am
Quoting x1810
Attachment
my chart for tomorrow

this is I think the first time I see a chart with only one colour bars.....
  • #131,873
  • Aug 16, 2009 11:34am Aug 16, 2009 11:34am
Quoting I like steak
this is I think the first time I see a chart with only one colour bars.....
Hehe... look closer, the down bars are actually dark red

but all over, yeah.. one color or 2 close colors make things clearer for me. I'm a very simple person!
  • #131,874
  • Aug 16, 2009 11:39am Aug 16, 2009 11:39am
Quoting x1810
Hehe... look closer, the down bars are actually dark red

but all over, yeah.. one color or 2 close colors make things clearer for me. I'm a very simple person!

ok then....I think you have better eyes than me.

  • #131,875
  • Aug 16, 2009 11:44am Aug 16, 2009 11:44am
Quoting I like steak
ok then....I think you have better eyes than me.

well... as long as you see the fibs, you're fine
  • #131,876
  • Aug 16, 2009 12:45pm Aug 16, 2009 12:45pm
I've been studying the charts more deeply over the weekend since I posted late Friday. My outlook has changed slightly.

At market open I'll be looking for one of two set-ups:

1) Price rises to 4240, levels off, and then pushes up to 4350. This is the one I now favor, about 65% to 35% over number 2. In this case I would put my Sell in at 4350, maybe a little higher if I catch a spike.

2) Price rises to 4240, levels off, and then drops to 4160. I consider this a little less likely. In this case I would put my sell in at the 4160 area.

In both cases we should see some trending after these levels get hit. I favor the first one because my charts show that we are going to have a big bearish week. Big players don't give big bear moves away easily-they precede them with headfakes, and make premium entry points hard to find.

We also know that the big players were hanging out defending the 4240 area at the end of last week. Perhaps they weren't really defending it-perhaps they were just gathering bullish position size in order to initiate the push up to 4350.

Anyway, thats how I see things, good luck to all this week.
  • #131,877
  • Aug 16, 2009 2:17pm Aug 16, 2009 2:17pm
Don't think this rally in the dollar can overcome the resistance it has run into. The euro isn't going to go free falling, at least not just yet, with the excellent news on thursday from the eurozone.
So, my chart of last week is still tradeable, until it isn't.
Someone asked me last week what was my experience of the expected range seen on news. I couldn't give an exact answer as I don't normally do that analysis. However, I did have a look (more than a glance), and it is revealing. I won't bother to post it, but I suggest the poster do his own research for it can shed very useful light.
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  • #131,878
  • Aug 16, 2009 2:26pm Aug 16, 2009 2:26pm
Well friday night (my time) was very interesting, and it was good to be able to capitalise on the movement. I see that we are at the bottom TL (more or less) on the daily, and I have a nice little downhill channel on the M5 & M15 as well. I don't see that there is going to be much action yet because I don't believe that this can go much further up, but by the same token I see breaking of the daily TL to the low side as difficult at the moment.

So, I expect to see more of the sideways motion for a while, which will keep me out of action because I just can't trade that very well.

I favour going south in the longer term and perhaps we might see something along those lines later in the week.

5C

Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #131,879
  • Edited 4:10pm Aug 16, 2009 3:45pm | Edited 4:10pm
Stock futures & Oil are down a hair, too early to mean much. But if we get some worse-than-expected news out of Japan in an hour then we should get a good drop in the E/U.

A flow out of Y in the Asian session with an accompanying depression in US stock and OIL futures will mean the USD gets bought. Right?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #131,880
  • Aug 16, 2009 3:59pm Aug 16, 2009 3:59pm
Quoting The Fool
Stock futures & Oil are down a hair, too early to mean much. But if we get some worse-than-expected news out of Japan in an hour then we should get a good drop in the E/U.
I think there are more reasons than just Japan. Going by the weekly and daily charts the Euro has really struggled to get past the 1.40 mark. I get the sneaking feeling there's not much foundation behind it's current level either. But time will tell for sure.
Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
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