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  • #131,481
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:18am Aug 14, 2009 4:18am
Quoting luis.v.suft
This is a game(gambling) theory, without technical analysis. -used in roulette, it's name: Monte Carlo -
or Martingale. I have developed a safer verson of that, works but still risky. You are right, one should try to stay away from Martingale (though I like to try my luck at Monte Carlo, Vegas, Altantic City, Genting, ........)
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #131,482
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:18am Aug 14, 2009 4:18am
I think Technical Analysis is only a work with indicators which shows a real situation, not the future. So many indicator lies, but its too many that the whole of them can't tell only lies, some of them tells the true if you interpret it well.
  • #131,483
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:20am Aug 14, 2009 4:20am
Quoting Chicky
1. I used to do the same. Then once, risk grew to 30% for a profit target of 1.5%. Asked for help right on this thread, many friends came forward and helped me develop a revised method.

2. Now follow a fixed profit/loss amount. Either one way or the other. I do not change my trades once entered (though enter in 2 to e3 lots, fine-tune the sl and Tp positions, etc).

I need only more than 50% winners with 1:1 risk reward. That alone is a gold mine for me, ........and it is.

I enter 2 or 3 times to get my gearing 4:1 max when price is going against me.
I try to always take 1% profit off the table, you'd be surprised at how often 1% happens especially when the 4H chart is read correctly
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #131,484
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:26am Aug 14, 2009 4:26am
Quoting plan-b
No gambling here mate, I would not have entered short at 1.43 if i had not carefully studied PA..The key here is appreciating that leverage is a double edged sword..Once you take that out by low gearing you greatly increase your survival chances
ok this is a good method if you mixed it with technical analysis. but always use sl.
  • #131,485
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:26am Aug 14, 2009 4:26am
Short EURUSD AND EURJPY

See you
  • #131,486
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:26am Aug 14, 2009 4:26am
Quoting plan-b
Here is an example of a very simple one i use
Monday bought 1 lot at 1.42 (1:1 stress free gearing)
Tuesday price went against me to 1.41..No panic, added another lot to bring price to around 1.415
Wednesday price turned around in my favor and i collected my profit(1% of my account) on its way to above 1.43

Did something similar on gu and my account is up almost 5% this week

I have taken 1:1 short on eu @ 1.43 and gu @ 1.66 no stop or target
I have always been taught not to add to a losing position but to wait till it turns and only then add to the position. I have had it drummed into me that adding to a losing position is too risky as the markets can do anything no matter how much studying of the charts you do.

And that it is always best to have probability on your side when placing trades.

I still green so I only bring this up to see what people think.

When is it okay to add to a losing position?

Thanks
  • #131,487
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:27am Aug 14, 2009 4:27am
What?no one like my psar?
  • #131,488
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:29am Aug 14, 2009 4:29am
Quoting plan-b
No gambling here mate, I would not have entered short at 1.43 if i had not carefully studied PA..The key here is appreciating that leverage is a double edged sword..Once you take that out by low gearing you greatly increase your survival chances
If your analysis gives you a price ceiling (mark) for gradual entries and a TP (either price or profit) then it is safer to use this method. But normally reward does not match the risk in longer term, especially when PA suddenly jumps in one direction with no apparent reason. I lost an account when pa once moved 600 pips in one direction (1.3000 to 1.2400) against my bias, adding positions on every 100 pip down. Then broker increased spread at one point when I was hanging in balance with carefully calculated margin on normal spread. Wiped me out in seconds
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #131,489
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:31am Aug 14, 2009 4:31am
Quoting Chicky
If your analysis gives you a price ceiling (mark) for gradual entries and a TP (either price or profit) then it is safer to use this method. But normally reward does not match the risk in longer term, especially when PA suddenly jumps in one direction with no apparent reason. I lost an account when pa once moved 600 pips in one direction (1.3000 to 1.2400) against my bias, adding positions on every 100 pip down. Then broker increased spread at one point when I was hanging in balance with carefully calculated margin on normal spread.
Was it a news event?
  • #131,490
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:37am Aug 14, 2009 4:37am
Quoting Chicky
If your analysis gives you a price ceiling (mark) for gradual entries and a TP (either price or profit) then it is safer to use this method. But normally reward does not match the risk in longer term, especially when PA suddenly jumps in one direction with no apparent reason. I lost an account when pa once moved 600 pips in one direction (1.3000 to 1.2400) against my bias, adding positions on every 100 pip down. Then broker increased spread at one point when I was hanging in balance with carefully calculated margin on normal spread. Wiped me out...

True that,

for example i will only increase my shorts up to 1.4450(the reason for this level is clear on h4) and i never go past 4:1 gearing(100 pips against this max level representing 4% of my account)...
Most of the time i am able to take my 1% at around 3:1 gearing
Volatility means close stops become wasteful, but when well placed they will preserve capital
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #131,491
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:37am Aug 14, 2009 4:37am
overbought at 4285 and rejected from 61 fibo ???
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  • #131,492
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:41am Aug 14, 2009 4:41am
I got my ass handed to me one time because some country decided to test fire a missle.( If you remember that) was sometime last year I believe I had not a SL at the time.It was a micro account and I got wiped.Traded for profit all day to blink and see it wiped with account
  • #131,493
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:42am Aug 14, 2009 4:42am
Quoting Fly2
Was it a news event?
It was in August or Sept 2008. I never used to check the news release then. I think that break occured in late Asian session and lasted a couple of hours during London. But I lost thousands of dollars in just few hours on this break. Loss of money of course hurts, but the greatest loss was losing mental capital and confidence (in myself plus others' confidence in me).
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #131,494
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:44am Aug 14, 2009 4:44am
1.4267 first TP
P.S. first TP hit. Where's the guy with his 10 lots, 2000 bucks there.
  • #131,495
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:48am Aug 14, 2009 4:48am
Quoting plan-b
True that,

for example i will only increase my shorts up to 1.4450(the reason for this level is clear on h4) and i never go past 4:1 gearing(100 pips against this max level representing 4% of my account)...
Most of the time i am able to take my 1% at around 3:1 gearing
Volatility means close stops become wasteful, but when well placed they will preserve capital
Very wise.

This is one major reason for my moving to longer term TFs. I could not find a decent trade during this whole week. Only one decent trade this week, that also closed at BE when PA yesterday suddenly spiked 100 pips down just to hit my sl that were in the basement.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #131,496
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:51am Aug 14, 2009 4:51am
Quoting Atlast
1.4267 first TP
P.S. first TP hit. Where's the guy with his 10 lots, 2000 bucks there.
Me too...4270
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #131,497
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:54am Aug 14, 2009 4:54am
Quoting realjumper
Me too...4270
Good work. Now some clear low TF pivots to protect remainder of position.
  • #131,498
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:58am Aug 14, 2009 4:58am
Quoting Chicky
Very wise.

This is one major reason for my moving to longer term TFs. I could not find a decent trade during this whole week. Only one decent trade this week, that also closed at BE when PA yesterday suddenly spiked 100 pips down just to hit my sl that were in the basement.
Wall street raiders. Big boys picking on medium and small boys-ran it right up into a huge cluster of stops-they knew what they were doing.
  • #131,499
  • Aug 14, 2009 4:59am Aug 14, 2009 4:59am
This next bar should decide the direction for the rest of the day. Watch the news in 2 and a half hours time.

Anyone else noticed this pattern?

Dazzer
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  • #131,500
  • Aug 14, 2009 5:00am Aug 14, 2009 5:00am
Quoting Fly2
I got my ass handed to me one time because some country decided to test fire a missle.( If you remember that) was sometime last year I believe I had not a SL at the time.It was a micro account and I got wiped.Traded for profit all day to blink and see it wiped with account
I remember that. These were basically two event in two consecutive days. One firing missiles and other country giving provocative statements. But my ass remained safe.
The Thief of Wall Street
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