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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #22,601
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:43am Aug 13, 2009 10:43am
i don't have a tweezer bottom on the last 2 1hs, my second 1h is 4 pips lower than the first one hour. I see what you guys are getting at though -- it seems quite often buyers will take positions at the opening price of a previous strong candle like that
'The past will always show us the future'
  • #22,602
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:43am Aug 13, 2009 10:43am
I think we move too fast for some people!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #22,603
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:44am Aug 13, 2009 10:44am
Quoting fourxtrader
EO or Infinity,

As seen on the current GU 15m:

Do you consider trade setups on "second
visits" to and through the 35 and 50 mas
and place any weight' on the fact that
the previous successful cross did not
achieve new highs on the chart?

Could this breakdown diminish the value
[color=blue][i]and strength of a pending 35 - 50...
The first one is normally the highest probability... I take the second sometimes but its more risky, especially as no new high was made on the first attempt..
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #22,604
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:45am Aug 13, 2009 10:45am
Quoting eohater
78 here bro, did you go again?
I'm a young guy, but I'm getting slow...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #22,605
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:46am Aug 13, 2009 10:46am
Quoting Infinity
waiting on the next h4 for my next move..
Same here really, but the price asked for me to take it, I tried to get 75, but price changed before my market order was filled. I've booked 10, covered now at BE. Whatever comes will come now. The h4 is what I'm watching and appearing we're going to get a long legged doji (for thos who don't know what this means, equal top and bottom wicks with small body) no defined direction from that alone. We then go to our lower TF to find more direction.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #22,606
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:47am Aug 13, 2009 10:47am
Quoting Infinity
The first one is normally the highest probability... I take the second sometimes but its more risky, especially as no new high was made on the first attempt..
Exactly! Then we go to our prior PA and see where sellers and buyers are sitting to pounce with confluence from our HTF, whehter it be h1 or h4. Like now, we're waiting on the h4.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #22,607
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:48am Aug 13, 2009 10:48am
Quoting eohater
Same here really, but the price asked for me to take it, I tried to get 75, but price changed before my market order was filled. I've booked 10, covered now at BE. Whatever comes will come now. The h4 is what I'm watching and appearing we're going to get a long legged doji (for thos who don't know what this means, equal top and bottom wicks with small body) no defined direction from that alone. We then go to our lower TF to find more direction.
machine.....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #22,608
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:49am Aug 13, 2009 10:49am
Quoting Infinity
The first one is normally the highest probability... I take the second sometimes but its more risky, especially as no new high was made on the first attempt..
  • #22,609
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:50am Aug 13, 2009 10:50am
Quoting eohater
Exactly! Then we go to our prior PA and see where sellers and buyers are sitting to pounce with confluence from our HTF, whehter it be h1 or h4. Like now, we're waiting on the h4.
Let's take the first 35/50 cross as an example, we took it, booked good profit, but she failed to make a new high, sellers pounced, drove price down. No new low, but no new high so we're converging on the m15. Go to our h1, we see sellers are pushing strong, our h4 is showing sellers as well are pushing strong. Supportive of taking a short position. Now, the key is where, I personally would have a hard time shorting at this price, I would like to see price drive back up a little around 6620, but the h1 tweezers are holding for the time being. So many variables, so many pips to be had!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #22,610
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:52am Aug 13, 2009 10:52am
Quoting Infinity
machine.....
Somedays and somedays the machine is broken! Thanks bro!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #22,611
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:52am Aug 13, 2009 10:52am
Quoting eohater
Let's take the first 35/50 cross as an example, we took it, booked good profit, but she failed to make a new high, sellers pounced, drove price down. No new low, but no new high so we're converging on the m15. Go to our h1, we see sellers are pushing strong, our h4 is showing sellers as well are pushing strong. Supportive of taking a short position. Now, the key is where, I personally would have a hard time shorting at this price, I would like to see price drive back up a little around 6620, but the h1 tweezers are holding for the time being. So...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #22,612
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:55am Aug 13, 2009 10:55am
Quoting fourxtrader
EO or Infinity,

As seen on the current GU 15m:

Do you consider trade setups on "second
visits" to and through the 35 and 50 mas
and place any "weight" on the fact that
the previous successful cross did not
achieve new highs on the chart?

Could this breakdown diminish the value
[color=blue][i]and strength of a pending 35...
The m15 35/50 cross is kick ass when we come off a high like we did, price came down, crossed, closed and went back. What we're wanting to see is if price can make another new high to continue it's trek. Same goes for when she comes off a new low and comes back to the m15 35/50 crosses and closes. We would want to see price drive back to another new low. If we don't get either, then we start seeing the pressure of the other side pushing to win. The 666x area that price touched when we look at our h4, we can see why so many sellers jumped on that price. You don't need to look at any other chart for a reason. Let me know if you want me to post a chart.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #22,613
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:00am Aug 13, 2009 11:00am
Here's the h4 chart I was referring to
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4.PNG Size: 60 KB
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #22,614
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:03am Aug 13, 2009 11:03am
Quoting Infinity
Pin it is, bearsh it will be!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #22,615
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:05am Aug 13, 2009 11:05am
Quoting eohater
Here's the h4 chart I was referring to
h4 is showing a nice pin there... I would like to see price move up 6600-30 area for a nice short
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #22,616
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:06am Aug 13, 2009 11:06am
Quoting eohater
The m15 35/50 cross is kick ass when we come off a high like we did, price came down, crossed, closed and went back. What we're wanting to see is if price can make another new high to continue it's trek. Same goes for when she comes off a new low and comes back to the m15 35/50 crosses and closes. We would want to see price drive back to another new low. If we don't get either, then we start seeing the pressure of the other side pushing to win. The 666x area that price touched when we look at our h4, we can see why so many sellers jumped on that...
Good stuff.

We can follow this our own charts or go
back through your pdf tutorial.

Thanks for all that you do.

Dr. D.
  • #22,617
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:07am Aug 13, 2009 11:07am
Quoting Infinity
h4 is showing a nice pin there... I would like to see price move up 6600-30 area for a nice short
That's where I would like to see, 6608 is actually what I have my eye on to be exact.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #22,618
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:08am Aug 13, 2009 11:08am
Quoting eohater
Pin it is, bearsh it will be!
yummy...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #22,619
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:08am Aug 13, 2009 11:08am
h1 closed below 10ema .. would we see bears to come ?
  • #22,620
  • Aug 13, 2009 11:10am Aug 13, 2009 11:10am
Quoting InDjaLV
h1 closed below 10ema .. would we see bears to come ?
the h4 is bearish and the h1 is bearish.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
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