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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #3,381
  • Aug 12, 2009 11:25am Aug 12, 2009 11:25am
[quote=eyevoltage;2949747]
Quoting Barry Cade

Here you go, mate......


http://www.icmtrading.com/
I will download demo & check out.

Do they expect you to open an active a/c or are they happy for you to demo?

What timeframe are they on? My first MT platform was FXPro & they were in Cyprus! 4 hour difference & it caused me some problems as some of my indicators couldnt be changed according to GMT differences.
  • #3,382
  • Aug 12, 2009 11:27am Aug 12, 2009 11:27am
[quote=trublu;2949875]Cubs all the way!!! Actually went to a game last week, but they lost . I didn't know you english fellows knew baseball.


Ha. I'm a Brit that doesnt know baseball. Thought it was abbrev for Trouble You!!!
  • #3,383
  • Aug 12, 2009 11:29am Aug 12, 2009 11:29am
Quoting trublu
Cubs all the way!!! Actually went to a game last week, but they lost . I didn't know you english fellows knew baseball.

trublu
You may not realize this, mate, but us "english fellows" actually invented the game!! Only we called it "Rounders"! Played it at school a lot, back in the dim and distant past! When I get the chance, I like to watch a bit of baseball on TV, but the only problem is that it's screened sort of VERY late at night/early hours of the morning, so I don't get to see much of it.
I love NFL as well! Go VIKES!! I believe that's the proper terminology, old chap?

Your trading methodology sounds like something very close to mine, mate, so I look forward to more of your contributions.
Cheers
  • #3,384
  • Aug 12, 2009 11:33am Aug 12, 2009 11:33am
[quote=Barry Cade;2949918]
Quoting eyevoltage
I will download demo & check out.

Do they expect you to open an active a/c or are they happy for you to demo?

What timeframe are they on? My first MT platform was FXPro & they were in Cyprus! 4 hour difference & it caused me some problems as some of my indicators couldnt be changed according to GMT differences.
I run a demo on it, mate, and they don't seem to mind much. Time zone seems to be the same as ours, so that's ok.
Cheers
  • #3,385
  • Aug 12, 2009 12:04pm Aug 12, 2009 12:04pm
Quoting Islander
In a post by Malcolmb14

we have to remember one thing .. China holding massive amounts of bonds they need to get rid of before usd drops . US will somehow manipulate dx back to 90 . .... liekly some form of agreement between china and us ( unwritten) that if they do this then china will waive some of the debt they owe them
(hope it's ok to post this here)
here's a recent, related news item:

16:34GMT US GOVTS: Mulling Over Inflation/Deflation on FOMC, Auction Day]
As market participants try to handicap the how the FOMC statement will address the Fed exit strategy for quantitative easing and how the interest paid on excess reserves will be the new fed funds, they will also be keeping an eye on the results of the Treasury"s auction of USD23bn of 10yr notes with particular attention to indirect participation (i.e. Chinese). In connection with this Treasury announced recently that it plans to up its issuance of TIPs next year, which coincidentally followed recent insistence by Chinese officials for more TIPs issuance.
Of course given the historical record it is quite understandable that the Chinese who hold about USD1 trillion in U.S. Treasury paper might be concerned at the sight of prodigious US stimulus that that could ignite inflation and send long term US treasury yields soaring higher and/or the US dollar lower.
Since the Federal Reserve Act was passed in 1913, the dollar has lost about 97% of its value. Even the explicit Fed comfort zone of 1-2% for inflation denotes a similar type of outcome of an 85% depreciation of the dollar over the same amount time assuming a 2% inflation rate. The irony is that the TIPs remedy to compensate the bond holder for inflation is more paper as a consequence of accretion of principal for the TIPs bonds based on increases in the CPI, which assumes rightly or wrongly that the CPI is a useful measure of inflation.
An alternative to TIPs would be to use gold as the traditional inflation indicator and the most monetary of all commodities to compensate for inflation. Economist Judy Shelton made the case in the Wall Street Journal Op Ed page for the Treasury to issue "gold-backed Treasury bonds -- payable at maturity in dollars or ounces of gold, at the option of the holder."
Compared with 2yr nominal treasuries that yield 1.18%, the gold forward curve implies an internal rate of return of about 1.28%, while constant maturity 2yr TIPs yield about 0.81%. However Shelton says that gold indexed bonds should give bond holders the option to receive interest and redeem principal in either dollars or an equivalent weight of gold "at the option of the holder". In other words the bondholder would in effect own a call option on gold.
However, if the investor owns an option to receive interest and principal in dollars or gold, the cost of those options would reflect in a lower yield. How much lower? Using COMEX gold options and a little interpolation, IFR estimates that given current pricing in gold options a 2yr treasury note with al;l the options included would have an internal rate of return in the neighborhood of negative -5.67%. From a different perspective, the time value of gold options would have to less than a quarter of current levels for a 2yr gold indexed note to provide the same yield as 2yr TIPs. Alternatively, the yield on the 2yr note would have to rise to 9.15% for a 2yr gold indexed note to offer the same yield as 2yr TIPs.
The implied negative yield on the theoretical 2yr gold-indexed note seems to suggest an inflationary risk, especially given that the same exercise under normal market conditions tends to produce gold-indexed yields that are more or less similar to TIPs yields. However, the caveat is that similar gold indexed notes denominated in JPY in the mid to late 1990s also produced negative yields and Japan has had nothing but deflation for the past 15 or 20 years.
[email protected] / CDS data provided Moody's Credit Quotes
  • #3,386
  • Aug 12, 2009 12:17pm Aug 12, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting eyevoltage
You may not realize this, mate, but us "english fellows" actually invented the game!!...
Ya I've heard of rounders before but don't know anything about it. As for liking the Vikings that is unacceptable, Bears fan here all the way.

As far as the trading method it's basically what you do because I looked at your posts and basically copied you haha hope that's ok.

Trouble You Barry that's funny, now I can talk to my charts and let them know they're in trouble.

trublu
  • #3,387
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:20am Aug 13, 2009 1:20am
GM all - I hope that any traders who have ever wondered why I keep talking about FO /LO, Frankies Hour etc will take a look at this morning's 1 min charts......those wide range high volume candles all happened 6:00am gmt at the FO as some Big Dogs bought Cable & Euro and sold Swissy.

I've now closed my longs in cable and EJ and am looking for a pull back to buy again - lets hope that it happens before I have to go out for the day
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,388
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:20am Aug 13, 2009 1:20am
Ive started late this morning. Very dark here in Surrey, & bodyclock thought it was 4am! No posts this morning so I guess everyone else the same, or in hiding?

Looking at last 2 daily spinning top candles, having learned the volume theory yesterday, it looks like the elephants are loading up for an upwards move, although big volume. On the 5 min at 7.20-30 it looks like the elephants were again testing the market to flush out the bottom (unpleasant phrase), again indicating a rise.

Doesnt seem to be hanging around at the moment. Any thoughts / positions taken?
  • #3,389
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:27am Aug 13, 2009 1:27am
Quoting Islander
GM all - I hope that any traders who have ever wondered why I keep talking about FO /LO, Frankies Hour etc will take a look at this morning's 1 min charts......those wide range high volume candles all happened 6:00am gmt at the FO as some Big Dogs bought Cable & Euro and sold Swissy.

I've now closed my longs in cable and EJ and am looking for a pull back to buy again - lets hope that it happens before I have to go out for the day
Nice trade Islander, i was here but with a 5 and 15M chart, umh...i think before FO/LO and NY it will be better for me to use M1....
Trade with the momentum
  • #3,390
  • Edited 1:30am Aug 13, 2009 1:27am | Edited 1:30am
Quoting Islander
GM all - I hope that any traders who have ever wondered why I keep talking about FO /LO, Frankies Hour etc will take a look at this morning's 1 min charts......those wide range high volume candles all happened 6:00am gmt at the FO as some Big Dogs bought Cable & Euro and sold Swissy.

I've now closed my longs in cable and EJ and am looking for a pull back to buy again - lets hope that it happens before I have to go out for the day

Lets see if it bounces off R1. High vol selling on 5 min at 7.20. RSI 10 on all charts to 60 min show overbought too.

ps 62% fib also at 6592
  • #3,391
  • Aug 13, 2009 2:29am Aug 13, 2009 2:29am
right now, im long on gu, after the last hammer on M5 but im not sure to keep it long because on H1 we have a beautiful shooting star......let we see if we have confirmation of this shooting star or not...
Trade with the momentum
  • #3,392
  • Aug 13, 2009 2:38am Aug 13, 2009 2:38am
Quoting sailor68
right now, im long on gu, after the last hammer on M5 but im not sure to keep it long because on H1 we have a beautiful shooting star......let we see if we have confirmation of this shooting star or not...
M5 just exit on Doji a few pips +10
Trade with the momentum
  • #3,393
  • Aug 13, 2009 4:34am Aug 13, 2009 4:34am
Quoting sailor68
M5 just exit on Doji a few pips +10
gu, i took another position but long on the last hammer M5 at 65500, i cut already 20% of my position just below psych level 6600 and hold the rest.
Trade with the momentum
  • #3,394
  • Aug 13, 2009 7:17am Aug 13, 2009 7:17am
I have a question about taking trades right before a session opens. I saw a piercing pattern on GU but it was about 5 minutes before New York open so I didn't take it. Right when New York opened price shot up about 50 pips but I figure it just as easily could have shot down 50 instead. So do you guys take trades right before a new session is about to open?

Thanks,
trublu
  • #3,395
  • Aug 13, 2009 7:35am Aug 13, 2009 7:35am
Quoting trublu
I have a question about taking trades right before a session opens. I saw a piercing pattern on GU but it was about 5 minutes before New York open so I didn't take it. Right when New York opened price shot up about 50 pips but I figure it just as easily could have shot down 50 instead. So do you guys take trades right before a new session is about to open?

Thanks,
trublu
It depend of your strategy, usually on FO/LO i try to take a position as soon as i see some high volume, Islander did well today, for NY im waiting 15 minutes, but sometimes like today i am long on gu during the opening of NY, i have green pips already but i covered my position.
Trade with the momentum
  • #3,396
  • Aug 13, 2009 8:18am Aug 13, 2009 8:18am
Quoting trublu
I have a question about taking trades right before a session opens. I saw a piercing pattern on GU but it was about 5 minutes before New York open so I didn't take it. Right when New York opened price shot up about 50 pips but I figure it just as easily could have shot down 50 instead. So do you guys take trades right before a new session is about to open?

Thanks,
trublu
Hi Trouble

I am not experienced enough with the trades on this thread, but my experience previously & on indices are that trends frequently start before official opening, as traders are at their desks.

With GU for the last 3-4 weeks trends have been starting at 6am gmt whereas they used to start at 7am or even 8am in a difficult market when UK elephant/big dogs traders go into meetings for an hour or so to decide strategy.

In fact recently some trends have been starting in Asian session. This hasnt happened until very recently & probably means big dogs are getting in earlier to get an edge.

What I would look for is an existing trend. If its a sudden spike, I would be very wary as it could retrace. Certainly only trade in the direction of the trend & be very careful if news items are due!

Today I kept out as its been sideways for a couple of hours & low volume, & a lot of R. that I was hoping would be breached with news items. There is a confluence of 3 fibs at 16637, & R2 at 654. It hasnt happened so I am on the fence.

Just best to do some prep beforehand & understand the picure in different timeframes.

Maybe the guys like EV, Vantage & Islander can give some more experienced views.
  • #3,397
  • Aug 13, 2009 8:25am Aug 13, 2009 8:25am
Thanks Barry and Sailor for your views. I figured it was safer to just sit out today since this was the first time I was trading at New York open. I'll have to keep my eyes open around session openings, also almost got caught in the news today, forgot to check the news calendar.

trublu
  • #3,398
  • Aug 13, 2009 8:30am Aug 13, 2009 8:30am
Quoting trublu
I have a question about taking trades right before a session opens. I saw a piercing pattern on GU but it was about 5 minutes before New York open so I didn't take it. Right when New York opened price shot up about 50 pips but I figure it just as easily could have shot down 50 instead. So do you guys take trades right before a new session is about to open?

Thanks,
trublu
From my point of view, I never trade the Asian session (zzzzzzzz). By the time Franky and London has got going, I'm only just sort of getting my head around things. The NY open is the only one where I'm in a position to actually judge whether or not to enter a position. However, having seen in the past how the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P500 have soared or nosedived just after the opening bell, I'm always inclined to go and make a cuppa around that time, and let things settle down a bit.
Hope this helps, mate.
  • #3,399
  • Aug 13, 2009 8:35am Aug 13, 2009 8:35am
Quoting eyevoltage
From my point of view, I never trade the Asian session (zzzzzzzz). By the time Franky and London has got going, I'm only just sort of getting my head around things.
Not just the Asian session. Sounds like you enjoy Boddingtons too much the night before
  • #3,400
  • Aug 13, 2009 8:53am Aug 13, 2009 8:53am
Quoting Barry Cade
Not just the Asian session. Sounds like you enjoy Boddingtons too much the night before
Yeah, I wish! There isn't much Boddies imbibing these days, mate, due to circumstances beyond my control. (See my profile).

Anyway, here's a lovely trade from a set-up that I've been waiting to develop for a while now. I could see the possibility, but patience, as always, is the name of the game.
A classic retrace into the EMA zone, where it skidded to a halt with a spinning-top/doji candle. A little wait whilst price decided to drop below the xx00 psych-line, and then a nice drop towards the xx25 psych-line where I decided to bail after price started moving northwards.
As I type this, price has decided to show me who's boss and has punched its way down below the xx25 psych-line. C'est la vie.
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