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  • #130,121
  • Aug 11, 2009 9:48am Aug 11, 2009 9:48am
Quoting orangeRANGE
I use this kinda strategy during my early day in fx world...watching sNp...bla bla bla...all sorts of things...and it is history for me now...

Anyway, thanks for sharing your idea...

why not? u dont find it useful?

may i ask how do u trade nw?
  • #130,122
  • Aug 11, 2009 9:49am Aug 11, 2009 9:49am
Quoting Knowlegeable
As you watch the SP and or the Dow keep a note on whether the yields on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds go up or down.


Today there is a Auction of 30 Billion US of the 3 Year US Bonds. The money flow will show you where the currencies will go. It is another form of correlation other than Dow up or down.

It really helps my trading and I constantly win trading forex. However maybe it will not work for you. I am a fundamental trader using technicals to determine entry and exit of my positions.

can you explain mroe about this >> Today there is a Auction of 30 Billion US of the 3 Year US Bonds.

and how / why it affects? very interested to learn buddy
  • #130,123
  • Aug 11, 2009 9:52am Aug 11, 2009 9:52am
Quoting Knowlegeable
As you watch the SP and or the Dow keep a note on whether the yields on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds go up or down.


Today there is a Auction of 30 Billion US of the 3 Year US Bonds. The money flow will show you where the currencies will go. It is another form of correlation other than Dow up or down.

It really helps my trading and I constantly win trading forex. However maybe it will not work for you. I am a fundamental trader using technicals to determine entry and exit of my positions.
yes SP can realy work in your favor if u know how to interpret..but like anything here it doesnt work all the time
  • #130,124
  • Aug 11, 2009 9:58am Aug 11, 2009 9:58am

beautiful ! down line holds

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  • #130,125
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:03am Aug 11, 2009 10:03am
Quoting trading801
why not? u dont find it useful?

may i ask how do u trade nw?
I'm not saying it is not useful eitherway. It just doesn't fit my trading style.

I'm more to technical trading (chartist). You can also find my thread in the Trading System.
  • #130,126
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:09am Aug 11, 2009 10:09am
vanyxster - wow can i get a copy of your Template / Indicators?
  • #130,127
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:18am Aug 11, 2009 10:18am
looks like a bull flag to me.. but im no flag expert. usdx
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #130,128
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:22am Aug 11, 2009 10:22am
Quoting trading801
can you explain mroe about this >> Today there is a Auction of 30 Billion US of the 3 Year US Bonds.

and how / why it affects? very interested to learn buddy
Today there are incredible amounts of money moving around. There are the hedge funds with billions, private investers with billions and the FED with TRILLIONS.

They ALL have their black box programs. These were created by the same NERDS who came up with selling worthless paper to the world rated AAA backed by risk free insurance.

Do we know who AIG was ?

Therefore if you can follow where they are moving the money from and then where to you have a BIG edge as I do.

I will find an earlier post of mine today where I explain it with the opening numbers. According to legend, at least 90% of all currency traders lose. I am in the 10% category that win. Not to toot my own horn, but my point is that since probably 75% of all traders including the BLACK BOXES who are nothing but mindless robot traders, use technical indicators only.

Technical indicators only tell you the pulse of the market at that second in time. They do not and cannot predict the future.

EXAMPLE: Bernake comes out on Wednesday at 2:15 PM and says folks guess what, we think we turned a corner, maybe just maybe next year we might need to raise rates.

You can throw out ALL charts with resistance and support levels since the markets will react !

Do you know what might happen ? If you do not you should ask or learn yourself since there will be action and reaction.

My bottom line point is understand the market. Understand the fundamentals. Understand Human Nature and most IMPORTANT understand yourself and you will join our 10% club if you are not already there.

I will find that earlier post and you can see the differences then in the movements of the fundamentals I use while I trade FX.

Those are the price of Gol. The price of Oil. The direction of the Dow.

What is EUR/JPY doing and where is USD/JPY and what is the US Dollar Index doing and maybe most important what is the Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. As the US Bonds are bought money need to flow into the US Dollar out of other Asset Classes including the Euro.

They want safety so they get little Yield but at least they think they will not lose their capital. That is why when the Dow goes down usually the EUR/USD goes down. There are exceptions and today could be one of them because the FED might have to buy their own issue of 30 Billion of 3 Year US Bonds today if China and Japan do not.

If you do not understand this then learn. Otherwise the odds are against those that just rade charts.
  • #130,129
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:23am Aug 11, 2009 10:23am
Quoting gatorinla
looks like a bull flag to me.. but im no flag expert. usdx
you are behind this bull flag form morning still no result
  • #130,130
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:27am Aug 11, 2009 10:27am
Quoting Knowlegeable
Today there are incredible amounts of money moving around. There are the hedge funds with billions, private investers with billions and the FED with TRILLIONS.

They ALL have their black box programs. These were created by the same NERDS who came up with selling worthless paper to the world rated AAA backed by risk free insurance.

Do we know who AIG was ?

Therefore if you can follow where they are moving the money from and then where to you have a BIG edge as I do.

I will find an earlier post of mine today where I explain it with the opening...


Aug 11, 2009 8:06am (3 hr ago)
Knowlegeable http://cloud.forexfactory.com/images...ser_online.gif
Member
Member Since May 2009
27 Posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/t/10372/...cons/icon7.gif Good Morning All
My take on things from a fundamental point of view with technicals added for timing purposes. Unless you have not noticed the pattern for the EUR/USD pair in recent months with some exceptions on certain days.

Please be more than aware the FED will have things to say on Wednesday at 2:15 PM and the market can always be led by the FED to have perceptions changed in an instance. The FED wants folks to think the economy is improving if for no other reason to increase confidence. The facts say different and the markets are near a topping point.

The pattern I refer to is before we get into the NY open EUR/USD has a tendency to move up and then it gets hit down. This is always affected by the changing fundamental numbers that lead the charts.

The charts now show or did show at 7:29 AM a level at 1.4184 with resistance at 1.4200 (21 day moving average) and 1.4250 (5 day MA)

Support low for the morning was 1.41222 and the support is called at 1.4104 to 1.4123 (August trend from April 22)

55 day moving average at 1.4078 ... daily studies is mixed ...

Now onto the fundamentals that will move the charts and the markets in most cases if not all (The not all is occasional intervention)

EUR/USD now at 1.4168 and EUR/JPY at 136.60 which as it goes up brings EUR/USD up most of the time and the reverse is true. USD/JPY is at 96.42

Gold is up $2.40 at $949.40 and Oil is up $ .23 cents at $70.83

Europe markets are all down a small number. The Dow Futures are down at the moment 22 (As they adjust up or down the EUR/USD will usually adjust with it)

Sometimes a speaker on CNBC can move the Dow Futures some depending on their credibility or the topic.

The most important indicators from a fundamental point of view is the US Dollar Index and the yield on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. You can use other lengths like the 5 year and the 30 year but I prefer the ones that I use.

US Dollar Index at 79.09 now ...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT...i&w=15&t=l&a=2

and it is moving around now down some in recent minutes but not stable.

The yield on the 2 Year Us Bonds is 1.23% and the 10 Year Us Bonds is at 3.76% with the spread being 253 basis points.

As the US Bonds are sold the Yields go up and usually the US Dollars gotten for the sale, flow to other asset classes.

Generally when the Dow goes down the EUR/USD and USD/CAD is sold and the money flows back into the bonds and the Yields go down and The US Dollar needs to be bought to buy the US Bonds so money flows from the other asset classes.

The complicating factor now is the safety of the US Dollar itself as a world reserve currency and this is where USD/JPY comes into play along with EUR/USD when there is direct bad news against those currencies they do not get that benefit.

If the market thinks the FED will raise rates the Us Dollar would get stronger but it would be bad for the stock market so at present time we have cross currents to be aware of. Usually when the Dow opens and also around 10:00 AM with option expiry time the EUR/USD might get weaker or stronger depending on the short term trend. I call the short term trend for me 3 days or so.

Those are my thoughts. Be careful as we have a FED decision soon with comments to follow after the announcement
  • #130,131
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:34am Aug 11, 2009 10:34am
so in short buddy.. for the treasuries, when s & p 500 goes down, you also look at the treasuries.. to see if yield went down too?

ie folks flocking to risk safe stuff ...

ie buying usd, selling the rest

ie strengthening it ?
  • #130,132
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:34am Aug 11, 2009 10:34am
As you can now see the Yield came down quite a bit as things are sold for US Dollars and the money parked short term in the bonds.

I told folks earlier that id the Dow went down 100 or more EUR/USD would go down. US data bad like usual so Dow is down. Now for the afternoon sale of 30 Billion in 3 Year US Bonds. We shall see.

If there are any comments or questions I would be happy to respond.
  • #130,133
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:38am Aug 11, 2009 10:38am
Quoting Knowlegeable
As you can now see the Yield came down quite a bit as things are sold for US Dollars and the money parked short term in the bonds.

I told folks earlier that id the Dow went down 100 or more EUR/USD would go down. US data bad like usual so Dow is down. Now for the afternoon sale of 30 Billion in 3 Year US Bonds. We shall see.

If there are any comments or questions I would be happy to respond.
so if the bond sales take up is goooooood,

then we may see USD strengthen right?
  • #130,134
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:39am Aug 11, 2009 10:39am
Quoting Knowlegeable
As you can now see the Yield came down quite a bit as things are sold for US Dollars and the money parked short term in the bonds.

I told folks earlier that id the Dow went down 100 or more EUR/USD would go down. US data bad like usual so Dow is down. Now for the afternoon sale of 30 Billion in 3 Year US Bonds. We shall see.

If there are any comments or questions I would be happy to respond.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2
  • #130,135
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:48am Aug 11, 2009 10:48am
Quoting Knowlegeable
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY
  • #130,136
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:52am Aug 11, 2009 10:52am
Quoting Knowlegeable
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2
"Now for the afternoon sale of 30 Billion in 3 Year US Bonds. We shall see.
If there are any comments or questions I would be happy to respond."

first of all thanks for your inputs, great resume...
i guess when you say this afternoon you mean US afternoon right (im in spain)? is there a place to follow this happening (web) and is there a fix time?
Thanks once again...
  • #130,137
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:54am Aug 11, 2009 10:54am
Lately it has seemed that when the Dow goes down, the Euro goes down as well. A play on reserve currency. With Dow down around 100 today, I am sidelined... but believe we may see further decline if the market stays crappy. Just my opinion...
  • #130,138
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:55am Aug 11, 2009 10:55am
Quoting trading801
so if the bond sales take up is goooooood,

then we may see USD strengthen right?
http://www.thegeekknows.com/2009/08/...gger-move.html

That is good. Go here each day and you learn from a real expert in the field of trading.

WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Go there at the end of each trading day.

Good Fortune
  • #130,139
  • Aug 11, 2009 11:01am Aug 11, 2009 11:01am
Quoting Knowlegeable
http://www.thegeekknows.com/2009/08/...gger-move.html

That is good. Go here each day and you learn from a real expert in the field of trading.

WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Go there at the end of each trading day.

Good Fortune
thanks for the praise.. will read that... thanks !!
  • #130,140
  • Aug 11, 2009 11:01am Aug 11, 2009 11:01am
Quoting socrates123
"Now for the afternoon sale of 30 Billion in 3 Year US Bonds. We shall see.
If there are any comments or questions I would be happy to respond."

first of all thanks for your inputs, great resume...
i guess when you say this afternoon you mean US afternoon right (im in spain)? is there a place to follow this happening (web) and is there a fix time?
Thanks once again...
A link important with a Spain part attached

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry...ant-ypf-2009-8

China is KEY here when it comes to buying the US Bonds. When they stop and this article says clearer they are then the FED prints more paper and the Treasury sells US Bonds then the FED sends the NEW MONEY printed to other central banks and they move the monoply money around until one day Gold trades at $5000 US an ounce.

History just keeps repeating. Everything else is noise.
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