EURUSD

Overslept this trade :/

Up...we go...NOW

You're right, it's currently stalled at the 23.6% level.

What are the prob the banks will try for the 38% today?

see saw? stress??

I find today has been rather slow, the stress is most likely caused by betting what you cant afford to loose. In other words you are mostly likely highly leveraged relative to your account size.

I bought 1 lot yesterday at 1.42, price went all the way to 1.41 where i added another lot to bring my cost down to 1.415 hoping to collect at 1.4250 or above. PA has not yet shown any clear direction and the most draw down i have experienced has been roughly 1% of my account when price was at 1.41 otherwise its been quiet

im stopped out.. what makes no sence is the kiwi is not showing the strength like the euro just did. the gu did but not a commodity pair. so im baffled ... was some news the cause?

This upmove is running into an important area. I have closed out my long and reversed again for low risk trade.

ok back short.

True observation. From what you're saying, I'm guessing your account is roughly about 37 times mine, yet we trade the same lot. Probably not the best MM on my part...haha

i have never changed my mind...i was always short LOL

this is one of the benefit of not using SL...u are never stopped out...

dax and ftse getting minus right now.
oil keep standing above 70.5.
it should be bearish for a while.

i am short @4182 right now

Leverage is the number 1 account killer. Once that is understood clearly 90% of the job is done.
Account size does not really matter, what matters is the bet relative to the size.If new to trading you should use 1:1 gearing
example:if you have a 10,000 account you only trade one 10,000 mini lot

I try to restrict myself to 4:1 maximum gearing coupled with entering the position 1 or 2 lots at a time leaving some room for averaging the cost. With low gearing you will never really have to worry about putting close stops or huge draw down especially if you have read the trend correctly.

just be careful with that things bro haha.
soon it will killing yourself.

Im Long off the 4 hour chart. Will give it some time with a stop below the last swing low.

My take on things from a fundamental point of view with technicals added for timing purposes. Unless you have not noticed the pattern for the EUR/USD pair in recent months with some exceptions on certain days.

Please be more than aware the FED will have things to say on Wednesday at 2:15 PM and the market can always be led by the FED to have perceptions changed in an instance. The FED wants folks to think the economy is improving if for no other reason to increase confidence. The facts say different and the markets are near a topping point.

The pattern I refer to is before we get into the NY open EUR/USD has a tendency to move up and then it gets hit down. This is always affected by the changing fundamental numbers that lead the charts.

The charts now show or did show at 7:29 AM a level at 1.4184 with resistance at 1.4200 (21 day moving average) and 1.4250 (5 day MA)

Support low for the morning was 1.41222 and the support is called at 1.4104 to 1.4123 (August trend from April 22)

55 day moving average at 1.4078 ... daily studies is mixed ...

Now onto the fundamentals that will move the charts and the markets in most cases if not all (The not all is occasional intervention)

EUR/USD now at 1.4168 and EUR/JPY at 136.60 which as it goes up brings EUR/USD up most of the time and the reverse is true. USD/JPY is at 96.42

Gold is up $2.40 at $949.40 and Oil is up $ .23 cents at $70.83

Europe markets are all down a small number. The Dow Futures are down at the moment 22 (As they adjust up or down the EUR/USD will usually adjust with it)

Sometimes a speaker on CNBC can move the Dow Futures some depending on their credibility or the topic.

The most important indicators from a fundamental point of view is the US Dollar Index and the yield on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. You can use other lengths like the 5 year and the 30 year but I prefer the ones that I use.

US Dollar Index at 79.09 now ...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT...i&w=15&t=l&a=2

and it is moving around now down some in recent minutes but not stable.

The yield on the 2 Year Us Bonds is 1.23% and the 10 Year Us Bonds is at 3.76% with the spread being 253 basis points.

As the US Bonds are sold the Yields go up and usually the US Dollars gotten for the sale, flow to other asset classes.

Generally when the Dow goes down the EUR/USD and USD/CAD is sold and the money flows back into the bonds and the Yields go down and The US Dollar needs to be bought to buy the US Bonds so money flows from the other asset classes.

The complicating factor now is the safety of the US Dollar itself as a world reserve currency and this is where USD/JPY comes into play along with EUR/USD when there is direct bad news against those currencies they do not get that benefit.

If the market thinks the FED will raise rates the Us Dollar would get stronger but it would be bad for the stock market so at present time we have cross currents to be aware of. Usually when the Dow opens and also around 10:00 AM with option expiry time the EUR/USD might get weaker or stronger depending on the short term trend. I call the short term trend for me 3 days or so.

Those are my thoughts. Be careful as we have a FED decision soon with comments to follow after the announcement

i think it will be choppy?


i know jay wont like it but my new phrase is.


HUG ON TO THE FU#$!#$KING TREE

The single most important facet to longevity in this game is how much you risk on each trade. (Money Management)

You can be an average trader and a great risk manager and you'll most likely be here a year from now.

You can be a great trader and risk 5% or more on each trade you won't be here a year from now.

The statistics tell the story. Risk more than 5% on each trade and your chances of longevity are small. (I believe the number was 20% or less... I forget the number but it was low as hell)

Mike

me too... my short 1.4170 still in action....

looking forward for another pending sell at 1.4190 if possible....

TP & SL buddy?

otm, that is a good setup. add your position a couple times (e.g. 1.42 and 1.425) and you'll do fine. my target is 1.47

hope my target works for today..