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USD/CAD Trading Room

  • #121
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:06pm Aug 4, 2009 1:06pm
Quoting Duce
I think its a combination of SLs being blown and quite a few 'tightened up' TPs. Maybe we're gonna bounce on this pair? Although I'm long, pairity has always been my worst case scenario. The only reason I don't see it is 'cause our economy up here is sh*t, regardless of what the Canadian news tells you. It's summer time, and the minority government wants to look good for the fall session. Fresh manure and rose-coloured glasses for everyone.
Well you can't go wrong with holding a profitable position, and is looking bullish on the daily chart. Could take us higher from here but to be safe is better to place stops below the daily range now.
  • #122
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:09pm Aug 4, 2009 1:09pm
I'm gonna bank today's pips against my current, but unrealized, losses. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Good luck with this pair.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #123
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:08am Aug 5, 2009 8:08am
On the 1H chart, I get something that looks like a coffee cup. Am I correct? What are the technicals of this pattern?
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #124
  • Edited 9:28am Aug 5, 2009 8:58am | Edited 9:28am
Hi,
first post for me in this thread.
I'm long since last night.
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  • #125
  • Aug 6, 2009 10:38am Aug 6, 2009 10:38am
If you look at this pair on the 15m chart for this week...it's a complete trainwreck. Nothing but blood and guts all over the place. But unless we break that 1.0785 this week or next, we're gonna go down. Not what I want at all, but it is forcing me to scalp other pairs while I wait....and wait....and wait....and...zzzzzzzz
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #126
  • Aug 6, 2009 10:44am Aug 6, 2009 10:44am
Ok i m long maybe the trend in going up now
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  • #127
  • Aug 6, 2009 10:47am Aug 6, 2009 10:47am
If you're scalping...possibly up a bit, then down, then up. Just watch oil. But if you look at the long term charts, there is no confirimation of an uptrend. If anything, 1.0785, formerly support, is now resistance. Again, what I want and what this pair is showing is two different things. Trade with your charts.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #128
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:31pm Aug 6, 2009 3:31pm
Daily would have to close above 1.0800 to be looking further move up, seems like a brick wall now.
  • #129
  • Aug 7, 2009 9:25am Aug 7, 2009 9:25am
Finally! A great scalping day with this pair. 8 trades, 170 pips. And another swing lot turned green. 3 more to go. Let's see what next week brings.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #130
  • Aug 7, 2009 9:55am Aug 7, 2009 9:55am
I am Long her.

Hope she will kiss 1.13xx next week.
  • #131
  • Aug 7, 2009 10:03am Aug 7, 2009 10:03am
If we hit 1.13xx, I'll be done for the rest of the summer. Let's take it 100 pips at a time. Good luck.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #132
  • Edited 10:34am Aug 7, 2009 10:07am | Edited 10:34am
Quoting Duce
If we hit 1.13xx, I'll be done for the rest of the summer. Let's take it 100 pips at a time. Good luck.
Yea we hope that she will kiss at least 1.1050.

USD itself is on the up-trend. CAD then falling.

Thanks.
  • #133
  • Aug 7, 2009 10:34am Aug 7, 2009 10:34am
USDCAD, I say Bullish, no time for bearish.
  • #134
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:42am Aug 10, 2009 10:42am
Quoting toshi
My view too. I say U/cad @ 113 by Aug 10th. One full nickel. Also the 50 Daily EMA.

As I'm writing, it's challenging 850. Once that breaks and holds, it's probably already gone.

How high you think ?

Well, it's August 10th and we're still where we left it. A little higher, a little lower,
but fairly much right at 108 +/- The 10850 didn't break and hold.

I am still bullish on this pair, mostly because of the Dollar and IN SPITE OF the price of oil.

I'll continue to wait for 113, but now must see a break over 110 to confirm upward trajectory.

Break and hold, that is.
  • #135
  • Aug 10, 2009 12:14pm Aug 10, 2009 12:14pm
We need to push through and close above 1.0891 and 1.0921 area. Those are the technical numbers I'm watching. On the fundamental side, tomorrow's Housing Starts number will be important. And oil, of course.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #136
  • Aug 10, 2009 12:24pm Aug 10, 2009 12:24pm
Quoting Duce
We need to push through and close above 1.0891 and 1.0921 area. Those are the technical numbers I'm watching. On the fundamental side, tomorrow's Housing Starts number will be important. And oil, of course.
What do you think of the effect of Housing Starts? How it cause USDCAD
  • #137
  • Aug 10, 2009 1:02pm Aug 10, 2009 1:02pm
Low interest rates and affordable (lower) housing prices which form part of this governments stimulus package have helped stimulate this sector somewhat. The July number might come in as expected maybe even a tad higher than expected (I'm only guessing based on what I see), but jobs are more of a concern right now. You have to make money first in order to spend it, assuming you're not using credit. I've heard from a couple of sources that the personal credit default number is rising slightly. Not a good sign.

My position on this pair is known (swing long) and since the Aug. 4 bounce, I'm not looking back 'til the low 1.teens (1.12-1.15). Only 2 long trades are red now, with 5 green. Hopefully tomorrow's number doesn't screw things up in the short term.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #138
  • Aug 11, 2009 8:27am Aug 11, 2009 8:27am
Woke up to another great day on this pair. Still 2 red longs, but my over night trades were both nice and green and cashed out before I had my coffee. It's going up a little faster than I expected, but I'm not complaining.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #139
  • Aug 11, 2009 9:21am Aug 11, 2009 9:21am
1.1050 is a fibo line. Next one up is 1.1179 (50%) on my fibo from the July 8 down turn on this pair. But there will be many tests on the way up, if we keep going up, as I hope. If we do, oil will be dropping a lot more than it has been lately.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #140
  • Aug 23, 2009 11:03pm Aug 23, 2009 11:03pm
I think the USDCAD might see lower price in very short term but it heads up due to COT index reading and the net position size of long CAD (short USDCAD) have been increasing to an unstable measure, I anticipate a sharp and fast move up to till monthly R1 at 1.1414
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