EURUSD | Page 6486 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #129,701
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:32am Aug 10, 2009 6:32am
This is how I intend to play it

I put a hadge + small position at 1.4276. I was put on Thursday and got hit on Friday. Today I did the good old mistake to stare at the low tf and as a result the hedge closed at 1.4182 and reopened at 1.4202

I expect two major waves:

1. up to the Very important resistance of 1.4353. I will close the long positions at 1.4332 and than add more shorts (heavy) at 1.4350

Next I think we tank untill we meet the lower channel wall (daily) at it's intersection wit a major support at 1.3921. This should happen on Monday. If the price drops faster the lower wall will be touched at about 1.3880 on Friday. For some reason I just think that 1.3921 is the number for reversal. I intend to put a hedge on my shorts at this number and than add long positions depending on the PA. Next step is to set SL for the longs, close the shorts and pray I was right

After the lower wall we should quite rapidly rise to the upper and actually penetrating it a bit, which means above 1.5 and than a sharp drop and a complete trend reversal untill we are back to the 1.2xx zone

Thats the way I see it for the next 2-3 months
Riding the Dragon....
  • #129,702
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:34am Aug 10, 2009 6:34am
Quoting plan-b
I gave an example of WHEN price goes against you, that does not mean it will especially if you are on the right direction..I went long hours ago at 1.42 and so far so good, but since its a small position relative to my account and 200 pip movements are common place this days i will rest easy at night which is more than i can say for many traders.

If it goes to 1.43 that's 1% stress free profit
You're perfectly correct. There is nothing wrong in having an underwater position with low leverage, as long as it's intended in your trading plan / strategy, and your risk is controlled.

Lots of people don't understand that the most important trading parameter is the trade size relative to the trading account, not being right to the latest pip.

Trading size is what makes money in the long run, not picking tops / bottoms.
That's called money management, and it's the true trading grail...

Another thing that validate your position is that you're trading with the daily / weekly trend, not against it, skewing the probabilities in your favor a little more.

The only problem is that it's not a sexy or exciting trading style and a lot of people would better lose money than trade this slow and steady way
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #129,703
  • Edited 6:51am Aug 10, 2009 6:35am | Edited 6:51am
with US coming in later.. i think we can see if friday was really just a mere retracement..

i will be looking at S & P 500 for clues..

asia pac. positive.. >>

INDEXVALUECHANGE%CHANGETIME
NIKKEI 22510,524.26112.171.08%01:46
HANG SENG INDEX20,825.22449.852.21%00:35
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX4,300.501.100.03%02:06

i guess my article about how it was merely a retracement is still in play...

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=189248


i cant wait for us to open hee
  • #129,704
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:35am Aug 10, 2009 6:35am
There is a diamond forming on the 1H chart, but its inside a flag... hmm tough
  • #129,705
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:36am Aug 10, 2009 6:36am
Guys I'm a bit confused. What should be the correct settings for pivot indicator, if my broker says he is located in +1GMT London time and I live in +2GMT. Times are circled in the picture below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 265 KB
cut losses short, let profits run.
  • #129,706
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:37am Aug 10, 2009 6:37am
No if only the FED would add some new stuff as well this darned depression would be over not.

http://blog.rebeltraders.net/2009/08...ession-impact/
  • #129,707
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:42am Aug 10, 2009 6:42am
Quoting plan-b
I'm not saying you will not feel pain(as is the case with any system)
but if you have read the trend well and use low leverage the account has a higher chance
of survival and growth than when you trade both ways with high leverage especially for newbies.
Quoting Atlast
Yes, but the idea is not low leverage making the system work,
since you shouldn't be using high leverage in any system,
unless you have some inside information.
Why not use the same leverage to get more when you are right and lose less when you are wrong.
If someone (not likely a new comer) was to trade UNLEVERAGED
i.e. 10k for each 10K cash in account AND has the patience of Job,
the risk of loss is minimal. One will likely lose more to inflation & time value of money
than loss due to speculation. Trading with cash only would mitigate most of the risk
but also much of the reward as well. Unless trading unlevered, a stoploss is required.
Unlevered trading can still turn a profit.

Did you realize that people who bought 1 lot at 160XX last summer and continued to
buy 1 lot each handle all the way to 123/124 are now at break even ?
Even a chance for profit twice ! once @ christmas near 147 and most recently at the 144 level.
These are extreme examples, but it turned out that way anyway.

Shorts could have employed a similar strategy in reverse and come out as well.
But statistically, the risk there is greater, actually unlimited on the short side.

Without leverage, you have choices that may not be available to a leveraged account.
Since the idea was originally directed towards new traders, this might be even more appropriate:

1:1 up to 4:1 max leverage was the original suggestion. If someone is very new,
it might be wise to consider using no leverage at all (1:1) until it's deeply understood
how powerful leverage can become when coupled with a trending market.
Only slowly add the element of leverage to live trading as to be certain that
the risks associated are fully understood and prepared for.


As an alternative to a demo trader, it's as real as can be and far less exposure.
Sounds about as exciting as driving a new sports car 50 KPH with the top up and doors locked.
It's not supposed to be exciting. It's work and work is sometimes a bore.

Just another suggestion......could be worth only what it cost to read it.
  • #129,708
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:48am Aug 10, 2009 6:48am
Quoting Domas4
Guys I'm a bit confused. What should be the correct settings for pivot indicator, if my broker says he is located in +1GMT London time and I live in +2GMT. Times are circled in the picture below.

your broker is at GMT (london) time, and does it matter what the time diff. is when the pivots are based solely on price?

Tip: make sure you get an indicator you can use for backtesting as well... the one you have there can't I think...?

Only used MT4 fro a couple of months but as I felt I were in a casino I just had to stop using it...
  • #129,709
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:53am Aug 10, 2009 6:53am
Quoting Larseg
your broker is at GMT (london) time, and does it matter what the time diff. is when the pivots are based solely on price?

Tip: make sure you get an indicator you can use for backtesting as well... the one you have there can't I think...?

Only used MT4 fro a couple of months but as I felt I were in a casino I just had to stop using it...
Well, pivot indicator has to know when the day ends and starts, that's how it calculates the pivots.
BTW, what software are u using?
cut losses short, let profits run.
  • #129,710
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:00am Aug 10, 2009 7:00am
Quoting Domas4
Well, pivot indicator has to know when the day ends and starts, that's how it calculates the pivots.
BTW, what software are u using?

Yes but I meant if you have backtested it and it works, it works...

I am using Global trader now, hate it but it's working and won't bother changing.... trading stocks as well..
  • #129,711
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:02am Aug 10, 2009 7:02am
About one year ago, I added some tools to my trading bag of tricks. I use CNBC to have the information. At the start of my trading day around the time CNBC gets going at 4:00 AM EST, I mark down the starting data just like I will do now on this post.

The Dow Futures are down 30 now. Gold is down $5.40 at $954.40 and Oil is down $ .30 cents at $70.63

The yield on the 2 year Us bonds is at 1.29% and the yield on the 10 year US bonds are at 3.88% with the spread 259 basis points.

The US Dollar Index is at 78.88 and edging up again towards 79.00

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2

Europe exchanges are all down and with no major news out today if the Dow heads down 100 or more EUR/USD will test 1.4150 and below.

EUR/USD trades at 1.4193 and EUR/JPY trades at 138.06 with USD/JPY at 97.27

As the numbers change during the US trading session the money flows will lead the charts and the currencies and commodities will act accordingly.

You can follow it and see the patterns except every once in awhile when there is intervention as happened on Friday and then the US Dollar is bought and the money probably placed overseas.
  • #129,712
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:10am Aug 10, 2009 7:10am
Date: 2009/08/10Time: 13:56 (GMT +2)Ticker: EURLast: 1.4194Pivot: 1.4151st sup.1.4152nd sup.1.4123rd sup.1.40851st res.1.4222nd res.1.42553rd res.1.43Title: EUR/USD intraday: limited upside.Summary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 1.415

Our preference: Long positions above 1.415 with targets @ 1.422 & 1.4255 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.415 look for further downside with 1.412 & 1.4085 as targets.

Comments: the pair has struck against its resistance but remains above its support, the RSI is mixed to bullish.
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0810135549.GIF
  • #129,713
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:14am Aug 10, 2009 7:14am
Quoting fxswing
bottoms.
That's called money management, and it's the true trading grail...

Another thing that validate your position is that you're trading with the daily / weekly trend, not against it, skewing the probabilities in your favor a little more.

The only problem is that it's not a sexy or exciting trading style and a lot of people would better lose money than trade this slow and steady way
good stuff

In today's volatile markets i find stop loss to be a very wasteful means of risk management especially when placed very close in order to allow use of high leverage while trading both ways..You essentially keep giving back to the market most of your profits and that is if you are lucky enough not to be wiped out.

The only winner in this multiple, highly geared, short term trades is the broker..
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #129,714
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:16am Aug 10, 2009 7:16am
Quoting Knowlegeable
About one year ago, I added some tools to my trading bag of tricks. I use CNBC to have the information. At the start of my trading day around the time CNBC gets going at 4:00 AM EST, I mark down the starting data just like I will do now on this post.

The Dow Futures are down 30 now. Gold is down $5.40 at $954.40 and Oil is down $ .30 cents at $70.63

The yield on the 2 year Us bonds is at 1.29% and the yield on the 10 year US bonds are at 3.88% with the spread 259 basis points.

The US Dollar Index is at 78.88 and edging up again towards...
Now see, this is what I WOULD do if I didn't have access to a chart/computer screen.
So long as I could use a telephone to call in an order and get a fill (hello, it's 1990 again ?)
I could trade, even daytrade the market. Definately not for scalpers.

The value in this is that it causes you to pay attention to information that you
might otherwise let go in one ear, out the other, along with so much other data.

This is a good excercise for those who've only traded since the Post-Microsoft Windows era.
If you remember FNN, Scott Ellsworth, Lieba Geft and anchor names as such
from the past then you remember same as me. Bill and Sue are still around.

Ah, those were the days. Everything sucked, but we didn't even know it.
We thought it was great. Screw it. Wake me up in another 20 years.......
  • #129,715
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:23am Aug 10, 2009 7:23am
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...57706N20090808


A Trillion here and some there and before you know it we are talking real money. This will not end good.
  • #129,716
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:26am Aug 10, 2009 7:26am
Quoting Knowlegeable
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...57706N20090808


A Trillion here and some there and before you know it we are talking real money. This will not end good.
Attached Image
  • #129,717
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:33am Aug 10, 2009 7:33am
http://www.dailypfennig.com/currentIssue.aspx
  • #129,718
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:41am Aug 10, 2009 7:41am
14100 anybody ? No so fast, we still need confirmation in the form of a break of Fridays low.

Gators #'s notwithstanding (and they are very cool indeed), I think the market still wants to see some blood.

141 is just a mere fleshwound....
Attached Image
  • #129,719
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:47am Aug 10, 2009 7:47am
Agreed. The US market is waking up to find the pull-back is possibly over.

I reckon we'll go down soon.
  • #129,720
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:48am Aug 10, 2009 7:48am
I do hope so.
3,132 traders viewing now