EURUSD

omg i think someone fade my story just to remain at the top !!!!!


where is Jay when i need him

...that we're all so anxious to predict and trade the new trend that we're frequently looking for whom to blame for big market moves, and we're prone to long-term predictions based on sudden events. Friday's USD Bull move was, imo, no big pre-planned event, but a direct reaction to the very favorable, surprising NFP and unemployment numbers. The investment money came out of the closets and out from under the mattresses to invest all over the place - equities and currency. It upset the status quo, created a lot of excitement, made some folks a lot of money, and lost some folks a lot of money. It's not necessarily the beginning - or the end - of any big trend. It's just the market doing what it does. I don't know what direction it's going to move. I would suspect that it will continue to react in favor of USD, but that could change at some fib or with some other big news.

What am I going to do? Watch the news calendar so that I'm ready to take advantage of good trading times when big news is NOT coming out. Do my best to not walk/trade in front of a fast-moving bus - often caused by news. Do my best to watch my charts and get a feel for which short-term trends develop, so that I can jump on for a few pips. Listen to those traders who I trust are better than me at analyzing the market and who avoid big emotion in their trading.

There was indeed speculation on Friday and over the weekend that the Fed will be raising the rates before the end of the year. Imo, that is one of the big things that indeed moves currency rates without regard for the stock market or commodities, so I'll be watching for - but not predicting that.

I think it is dangerous to view the events of one day - on any trading day - as cataclysmic. It's just the market doing what the market does. Watch those trendlines and fibs; listen to the news; trade what you see today; be ready to trade something else tomorrow or next week. That's The Market.

My two cents. Not sure I got my point across but I hope it helps someone. I also hope you're having a great weekend and I wish you successful trading.

P.S. Thanks to those of you who frequently post your insights and trades.

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lol y r u changing your post each time i reload

Just a quick chart of the US Dollar Index, to let you think about Friday's move.

To take a dollar bull move seriously, I really would want to see at least a 3 days high breakout, and a 200 sma 4H cross, not new year lows.

I don't think the EURUSD uptrend is dead.

My pick is that we established a nice playground range in the first week of August 1.4450-1.4150 and now we will play inside for the rest of the month, until the next leg up...

I plan to see 1.4620 by month end or early September...

The only thing that could make me change my mind and re-evaluate is if bears can take the daily 1.4007, or the weekly 1.3748 swing points...

Until then I see no valid reasons to second guess the trend.
Trend that was reinforced when we took the 1.4439 swing point, opening the door to 1.4719 future tests


See you later, when markets are trading again...

buddy we think the same.. i feel it will go up again prob..

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fontu

Good post, FxSwing. I agree with your thought process. Interesting to note that the H4 200sma presently intersects the 76.4 (1.4111) fib on 4446-4007 retrace. It's also just above the lower TL touching 1.3832 of 7/8/09 and 1.4007 (7/29/09). Good place for a bounce. Trend is still up since March of this year. 1.3832 could be another good bounce point. Refer to the D1 chart.

people take care of ur charts...do not split of my screen

i posted the wall crap because of all u.s. pairs together the 2 weakest are the euro and the chf.. for the weakest currencys to move the stronger have to lead. they did not the kiwi briefly crossed the ph by 30 pips or so only. but the rest stayed in check....this is another reason i closed my pending long on eu. i posted dollar index stuff about a short term bottom also. but as in the other stuff my charts and calculator said it.. not me.. i just posted blindly standing in front a bus what other things told me. short term.


looking at the charts alone this is just a pullback in the larger uptrend. and during consolidation charts can lie by crossing trendlines. but it could be simply a range and the price is not moving because trend is not strong enough at that point or a reversal.. trendlines or also timelines and the pair simply follows its own schedule not the charts schedule. i cant disagree on what the charts say. the trend is the trend till its not. so bears and bulls hopefully smart traders are looking for signs of direction because we simply dont care. i put out some numbers last week that bulls have to overcome to resume trend. i recall the kiwi was the only one to go over by 30 pips with a wick.. other then that wall remains wall until its not. ok i agree the trend longer term is up..but since most of us here dont trade more the min to days possibly weeks tf we want a nearer term direction...the bulls simply are not gonna lie down..

anyway i posted a 15 min chart with some levels on it.. yes i know longer termers are laughing as i would have 3 months back about a 15m used to show direction...but the longest journey starts with the first step. besides for now its short term.. the reason im posting this is because a longer chart had shown 4444 as a top. in my numbers i was biased to 4437 since it should be a stronger number. but 4444 is the next...before you bet the best goat remember the larger trend is still north....ok on my bigger chart as said many times befor 4148 is a big number to me.. we closed above. so bulls still have power..bouncing back toward 4444 is expected.. but the less we bounce is possitive for bears..not going above or rejection at 4273/81 is bad for bulls. short term for now, but could develope longer term..at sunday open if we stay south of 4199 until london its a bad sign for bulls... ok still keep other red blue number handy... the 15 min chart talked about is only valid below 4410 and above 3817..once breached disregard. 15m cht levels. 4410 4273 4178 4115 4044 3957 3817... 4115 is a 50% number on the 15m chart. at lot of time i take profit here expecting retrace and re-enter.. before closing friday we are in what i call a turn area the place is between 4171 and 4124 with 4148 in the center also with 2 weaker numbers on either side of 48. 60 and 36. we closed north of this area and usaully when area rejected we go back to 50% number that is 4199 and if lower trend in tack we bounce lower.. not reaching 4199 is a good sign we go lower before london session.. possible rejection above that is 4224.. for those not knowing about red and blue numbers dig though my post the last or ask.. a few guys made a templet..

ok away from charts.. heres what i know... fact.. china is having problems in forclosers ect. credit has tightened in china.. they are buying less copper.. they are buying less coal.. they are buying less steel... tanker full of oil are all over the world with no place to go. the baltic shipping rates are dropping (more proff of whats happening in china). storage full or near full in u.s. ..

not fact imfuo.. texas is the best state to be in is now laying off many oil workers. the same thing in louisiana. anyway the supply demand crap with no job points one direction.. u.s. is the demand.. the rest are the suppliers. nfp still shows job loss.. its like the doc saying we have to cut off your leg but after the operation you find just your foot off.. your still not gonna dance for a while...much less even walk without crutches or a limp.. but maybe what this has done with china news and earnings made usd come into favor. then there is the gold hording in europe.. why? do they expect something and want to cover ass with gold?

all the above crap is crap.. sort it.. or discard it.. im short term short at those levels with a tight sl.. im long longer term bullish untill those levels are taken out.. lets see what happens.. i will be carefull at low from 2 weeks ago..i may long with tight sl then and play it by ear.. cautious bear

Does this picture represent going against the trend?

6 hours or so to battle zone

I try to look at forex as my friend, not a war zone. I usually find this attitude more profitable :]

forex is>>

Domas is right, Forex is your friend. Just like Bubba here in the shower.
See, he's friendly, outgoing, wants to get to know you.

If you just be so kind to bend over and pick up the soap, please.

Forex sez thanks.

I read and heed all of your posts, Gator. Thanks for taking the time on a Sunday.

LMAO.
Well, you never know he likes that.

GL this week everyone. I expect a boring week of trending with a slight downward slope.

My plan: Let this pair settle, establish its range, then start scalping from the top with sells.

Serious resumption of bulls a couple of weeks away. End of this week and next week we could see upside fakes and downside fakes. Lots provided to confuse before a serious trend resumes its course...Deal with that then.

Seconded, except for the bold part (not including Steve's name).

i'm looking for some opinions... I feel like we're going to see some retracement back up towards the 1.44 levels early in the week, probably open my long position in a few hours.. Anyone think we're going to drop back below 1.4 anytime soon...

-Mike