Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1094 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #21,861
  • Aug 8, 2009 10:00am Aug 8, 2009 10:00am
big moves past week over the table, but i can't avoid to note that GU and EU close Weekly over big supports zones(around 6600 and 4150), and UJ below big resistance (97,50)... 2 of them even above its respective previous 4H ranges... (EU wasn't able)

and remain there till market closed...

is curious because was a fast move down, but anyway wasn't able to break such supports zones... it is looks more than a pullback from previous breakout movements...


Just a thought, my modest opinion....
  • #21,862
  • Edited 8:28pm Aug 8, 2009 2:06pm | Edited 8:28pm
Here is some stuff on covering your profits, still trying to work on the PA stuff. Don't like the charts I have to work with from friday.. But will have a go.. Don't forget your Zoom in button bottom right of your screen.. Sorry for the way it came out.. Ken


Edit of below in the example we took the $5.00 off at +20 pips..
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #21,863
  • Aug 8, 2009 2:42pm Aug 8, 2009 2:42pm
Forgot something
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #21,864
  • Aug 8, 2009 3:13pm Aug 8, 2009 3:13pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
thats lovely to hear...made my day! it really did

I must spend more time in here theres a lovely vibe i get from this thread..keep up the good work guys..
Thank you nAVIN2007 and to ALL of you that receive the victory and celebration of others with a kind-hearted spirit. As I read your words (above) I truly felt that these good news of others brought joy to you..many in this thread are like that, starting with EO who began the thread, and I tell you, that is what REALLY makes this thread such a success, we are all here to encourage and help one another..when one has losses, others honestly feel bad for that person and what one kicks butt, everyone celebrates it. We are never hear to tear down each other and I am so glad EO does not tolerate it...he'll send stinkers to hell right away...
When one has that healthy (not to mention Biblical) foundation things can only get better.....THANKS AGAIN
  • #21,865
  • Aug 8, 2009 8:03pm Aug 8, 2009 8:03pm
Here is a bit more Price Action stuff to look at..

1 Hr.
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #21,866
  • Aug 8, 2009 8:04pm Aug 8, 2009 8:04pm
15 min
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #21,867
  • Aug 8, 2009 8:04pm Aug 8, 2009 8:04pm
4 hr.
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #21,868
  • Aug 8, 2009 8:08pm Aug 8, 2009 8:08pm
I'm going to make one post right now and I'll be back in a couple of hours to make some more posts. Here's my weekly, nice big ass pin we got isn't it? Everyone is ready to short it and run for 1.35 all over again, but are they? I'll be back later to elaborate and I'd love to hear some input before I get back on everyone's thoughts. One thing about this chart, I've only adjusted one S/R since 3 weeks ago and that's the top resistance.
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Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #21,869
  • Aug 8, 2009 8:21pm Aug 8, 2009 8:21pm
Quoting eohater
I'm going to make one post right now and I'll be back in a couple of hours to make some more posts. Here's my weekly, nice big ass pin we got isn't it? Everyone is ready to short it and run for 1.35 all over again, but are they? I'll be back later to elaborate and I'd love to hear some input before I get back on everyone's thoughts. One thing about this chart, I've only adjusted one S/R since 3 weeks ago and that's the top resistance.

My minor opion...
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #21,870
  • Aug 8, 2009 11:26pm Aug 8, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting eohater
I'm going to make one post right now and I'll be back in a couple of hours to make some more posts. Here's my weekly, nice big ass pin we got isn't it? Everyone is ready to short it and run for 1.35 all over again, but are they? I'll be back later to elaborate and I'd love to hear some input before I get back on everyone's thoughts. One thing about this chart, I've only adjusted one S/R since 3 weeks ago and that's the top resistance.
Maybe previous resistance has become support?
  • #21,871
  • Aug 9, 2009 1:30am Aug 9, 2009 1:30am
Quoting eohater
I'm going to make one post right now and I'll be back in a couple of hours to make some more posts. Here's my weekly, nice big ass pin we got isn't it? Everyone is ready to short it and run for 1.35 all over again, but are they? I'll be back later to elaborate and I'd love to hear some input before I get back on everyone's thoughts. One thing about this chart, I've only adjusted one S/R since 3 weeks ago and that's the top resistance.
I'm wondering if we will get a 6580 bounce or just slowly fall until September.

The charts will tell....

HOLLA
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  • #21,872
  • Aug 9, 2009 2:34am Aug 9, 2009 2:34am
Quoting eohater
I'm going to make one post right now and I'll be back in a couple of hours to make some more posts. Here's my weekly, nice big ass pin we got isn't it? Everyone is ready to short it and run for 1.35 all over again, but are they? I'll be back later to elaborate and I'd love to hear some input before I get back on everyone's thoughts. One thing about this chart, I've only adjusted one S/R since 3 weeks ago and that's the top resistance.
Pins against the trend have been unsuccessful thus far - I'm looking at the pin in mid march and the pin at the end of may. The pins with trend have been far more successful, i.e., bears tried to push the price down but bulls just reloaded near the bottom for higher prices.

This particular pin seems to have closed below the june high, so I'd say this particular pin should be quite significant. A note of caution I would sound about this pin though is that it was formed by a week of major news announcements, including the BoE QE announcement, and the nfp news release. We'll need to watch for PA on Monday and perhaps Tuesday to determine whether the longer trend is indeed changing.
  • #21,873
  • Aug 9, 2009 2:38am Aug 9, 2009 2:38am
just came n drop my self on ur thread...seem to be good to be here i think.......
  • #21,874
  • Edited 9:13am Aug 9, 2009 5:08am | Edited 9:13am
Quoting eohater
I'm going to make one post right now and I'll be back in a couple of hours to make some more posts. Here's my weekly, nice big ass pin we got isn't it? Everyone is ready to short it and run for 1.35 all over again, but are they? I'll be back later to elaborate and I'd love to hear some input before I get back on everyone's thoughts. One thing about this chart, I've only adjusted one S/R since 3 weeks ago and that's the top resistance.

In my newbie view from a daily perspective, we are approaching what I believe is strong S/R at 6600 and the daily LTL. With the 35/50/365 MA's all lining up at about the same area (right now at 6400 area). While I'm still very new to interpreting the 35/50 MA's, it's been my experience that on daily, after a significant cross of the 365 (running flat in the middle), the first time back to it "generally" means a nice bounce back to where she came from. Often much further than where she started her turn down. We also have the 150/200 Ma's turning up in concert with the trend.

For her to have any significant chance of a run to the 3500 level you mention which I suspect was only an exageration?..lol She'd have to not only break through all that but for me, also the 6280 & 5980 areas as well. I'm still undecided ATM but my overall longer term view is she's still bullish ATM. In the near term of 4H 1H 15M, She was unable to break back above 6715 (although Friday's wind down may not mean much), I see the possibility of some bearish action to the 6630/6600 area. So for me, Monday's PA is still a big piece of the puzzle.

EDIT: An interesting note. The fib level 38.2% drawn on the overall drop from Nov. 07 to Jan 09, and the fib level 50% drawn on low of 6/9/2009 to current high match to within 1 pip at 6420 & 6421. Hmmmmm.... Currently, the 38.2% of the latter rests at 6567.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #21,875
  • Aug 9, 2009 6:20am Aug 9, 2009 6:20am
I think she'll find support at the 6700 area but i am awaiting your analysis so i can learn to trade like the master


Quote
I'm going to make one post right now and I'll be back in a couple of hours to make some more posts. Here's my weekly, nice big ass pin we got isn't it? Everyone is ready to short it and run for 1.35 all over again, but are they? I'll be back later to elaborate and I'd love to hear some input before I get back on everyone's thoughts. One thing about this chart, I've only adjusted one S/R since 3 weeks ago and that's the top resistance.
  • #21,876
  • Aug 9, 2009 11:47am Aug 9, 2009 11:47am
i wanted to add that price tends to drop much quicker than it climbs so if it does drop i would expect some momentum out of her
  • #21,877
  • Aug 9, 2009 12:30pm Aug 9, 2009 12:30pm
Just read your post rt4x!

It brightened up the day here also.....
  • #21,878
  • Aug 9, 2009 2:39pm Aug 9, 2009 2:39pm
Here is a fundamental conspiracy theory Bob and I have been discussing this weekend. Third eye stuff!

Friday the recession ended and things went back to normal! Good Economic Indicator news was followed by dollar strength. The Dow also gained strength. I do not recall that scenario since last year this time. In the past it was a very typical reaction.

There is a glut of dollars on the world market. What better thing to do with all the dollars around the world then to buy a peace of America and participate in the economic recovery. Repatriation!

However, the world Sovereign accounts know not to buy into a top but wall street still wants and needs to sell stock. So, the pros will drive the market down, knowing that the rest of the world will be scrambling to get in on the recovery before it is to late. (buying on the dips)

The goal would be to entice all the world wide dollar supply that is sitting on the sidelines to buy back in to the US stock market on a pullback. Everybody wants a deal, everybody wins!

The good thing about it, the US would be buying back our debt for considerably less then we sold it to them for!

The stock market will pull back, possibly to a fib level, fail to make a new low and buyers will come in and drive it up to make a new high.

Dollar demand increases...dollar back to a buck-fifty against the pound. hehe

Looks like the weekly candle is in agreement. Like to see it run back up the wick, fail to make a new high and let us sellers jump in.
  • #21,879
  • Aug 9, 2009 3:02pm Aug 9, 2009 3:02pm
eohater,

If there is a short wicked candle when crossing 35/50 are there times when you use the PO 20-30 pips higher instead of going short at the next candle open?

Do you always place your SL 20-25 pips above the high/low of reversal candles you trade?

Price often misses 1hr 62EMA by a few pips. Does it makes sense to enter early? Does it makes sense to place SL below above S/R instead of a fixed pip amount?

tdeu

Quoting eohater
Our system is unique!...
  • #21,880
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:56pm Aug 9, 2009 5:56pm
Took a short at 138.62 on the E/J should have took 2/3 off at +20 but it bounced to quick.. So still holding will cover shortlly.. We also developed a new pin on the 1 Hr. conitnuing the PA from Friday.. Would really love to see a close below the 10 ema on the 1 Hr..
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
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