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  • #129,441
  • Aug 8, 2009 12:55pm Aug 8, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting trading801
heh looking at the big drop 08 08 08 eh
Looks like that price may move around 1.42 & mostly lower side for this 08 due to purely fundamental reasons & a disaster technically we observed yesterday. Anyway recovery will occur in time when the euphoria be over of 08 & 08, i heard for months before & Gatorinla hints too earlier. Time will heal everything .Bullish nature still preserved very well & not thinking very big drop, just another 1-2 months of continued consolidation around 1.42 ,a little ( 250pips) higher level (of 1.3950) than before.
just my idea.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #129,442
  • Aug 8, 2009 1:24pm Aug 8, 2009 1:24pm
i have the daily channel like u too...

the orange line...

posted it in stories..
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=189248

do grace my humble views.. if u can..
  • #129,443
  • Aug 8, 2009 2:58pm Aug 8, 2009 2:58pm
I updated this week's trading plan for EUR/GBP, first target 0,8565-70, then down to 0,8530-35, then a new retest of the first top that forms, target then 0,8650-60 area. Look at the chart - follow the orange trading paths.
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Twitter: Forexlivetrade - Buy: AFFI.CPH ISIN: DK0015966592 - target 12 DKK
  • #129,444
  • Aug 8, 2009 3:51pm Aug 8, 2009 3:51pm
Ok...we managed to reach 38.2 on equities. Volume is low but...anyways we are there. Now if BB keeps monetizing, this thing can go to 50% and beyond. The big sharks are gambling with our money anyways so what they have to loose ?

Now if equities tank.....

The dollar followed the markets today.
Is it the end of a long lasting inverse correlation ?

If I was a big bank I would illude a bunch more people, making them go long the dollar as the market tanks, than slam their SL with a nice new era of direct correlation.


WEll...maybe it's all inside my head...maybe the dollar already payed all its sins, and from now on will ascend to the nirvana of currencies while the mighty Euro will be sent to....Hell....NO! Parity
  • #129,445
  • Edited 6:24pm Aug 8, 2009 4:34pm | Edited 6:24pm
Quoting Platypus
The dollar followed the markets today.
Is it the end of a long lasting inverse correlation ?

If I was a big bank I would illude a bunch more people, making them go long the dollar as the market tanks, than slam their SL with a nice new era of direct correlation.
Is the $/equities inverse correlation merely the result of big bank manipulation? What happened to the "risk appetitie/risk aversion" interplay?

There was some talk on the blogs on Friday, the gist of which was: there is a growing expectation that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates as signs of recovery from the recession kep coming. And, thus, the "either stocks or bonds" dynamic relative to risk appetite/risk aversion has begun to break down & this was quite evident with the positive effect on the dollar with good news from the NFP announcement.

As a novice, I am confused; I had gotten used to what seemed like a stable correlation between "risk aversion" (stocks down) and E/U negative movement, or vice-versa. What will happen now if the rumors of a Fed interest rate increase continue to float? Will US interest rate increases necessarily be matched by the CB's of other countreies or the ECB? My brief forex trading experience has taken place in a time when the carry trade has been dead. Is that time coming to an end now? What, I will have to learn a whole bunch of new crap?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #129,446
  • Aug 8, 2009 4:57pm Aug 8, 2009 4:57pm
Quoting The Fool
Is the $/equities inverse correlation merely the result of big bank manipulation? What happened to the "risk appetitie/risk aversion" interplay?

There was some talk on the blogs on Friday, the gist of which was: there is a growing expectation that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates as signs of recovery from the recession kep coming. And, thus, the "either stocks or bonds" dynamic relative to risk appetite/risk aversion has begun to break down & this was quite evident with the positive effect on the dollar with good news from...
I don't believe in evolution Fool but let me take a phrase from the evolutionist as a advise.

Adapt or die !!
  • #129,447
  • Aug 8, 2009 5:59pm Aug 8, 2009 5:59pm
Just a perfect Monthly reversal candle pattern... again!
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cut losses short, let profits run.
  • #129,448
  • Aug 8, 2009 6:20pm Aug 8, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting Domas4
Just a perfect Monthly reversal candle pattern... again!
I see nothing perfect about it.
ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #129,449
  • Aug 8, 2009 6:26pm Aug 8, 2009 6:26pm
the month hasnt ended yet. this candle could do anything still
  • #129,450
  • Aug 8, 2009 6:30pm Aug 8, 2009 6:30pm
The way I saw it is the price got caught between Monthly R1 and Weekly R1. Nothing more.

Again, that's the way I saw it, so on the break, I made a small short and made a little $$$.

By Wednesday I could tell that it got stuck between these two levels.

Again, my excellence has been confirmed.
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ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #129,451
  • Aug 8, 2009 6:36pm Aug 8, 2009 6:36pm
Quoting supermatt
the month hasnt ended yet. this candle could do anything still
Not only that but he's claiming that it's "again" a perfect reversal.

Well if the last one was perfect then why didn't it work out perfectly?
ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #129,452
  • Aug 8, 2009 8:01pm Aug 8, 2009 8:01pm
Quoting Domas4
Just a perfect Monthly reversal candle pattern... again!

follow that and see where your account goes
  • #129,453
  • Edited 10:45pm Aug 8, 2009 10:05pm | Edited 10:45pm
Quoting Domas4
Just a perfect Monthly reversal candle pattern... again!
Attached Image


Your first circle with the 3 CLOSED candles in it by rights ought to have included the one to the left from April as that one produced the double top and giving you Bulls = 1, Bears = 3 for the summer...

Only 2 of the 3 "monthly" candles in your current circle have even closed. The third one has 5 trading days in it with price currently a measly 94 pips below the open on an NFP week. Calling that a reversal or otherwise, calling it a "perfect" anything, and using 3 closed candles as your previous basis of comparison with 75% of the current one left is odd...

Care to explain your rationale?

Here's mine... I see price having seriously pierced that white 24 month sma after two months of fighting it but making Higher Lows and a (much) Higher Close in the process, pierced a decently strong (red) descending TL, and seriously busted the 79% level of the monthly swing fib.

In addition Price has either bounced nicely off or closed above the weekly 12sma since it became support the week of April 12. That level is only ~100 pips below current price and I anticipate a test of it.

No matter what happens the rest of this month, Price has 3 weeks left to do whatever it will do... like maybe recover a few dozen pips before it turns green again. So I would say that's not a "perfect" anything, reversal or otherwise.

Well... maybe a perfect mess, but Hey, trade what You see. There's plenty of other folks here trading what they see... many of them with the other side of your trade.

I'm mid term bearish, short term bullish Until Further Notice which could happen any minute, and try to never stand in front of a bus.
FUBAR...
  • #129,454
  • Aug 8, 2009 10:25pm Aug 8, 2009 10:25pm
Quoting trading801
i have the daily channel like u too...

the orange line...

posted it in stories..
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=189248

do grace my humble views.. if u can..

dont u folks agree the daily up is still valid ?
  • #129,455
  • Aug 8, 2009 10:44pm Aug 8, 2009 10:44pm
Hello of people, which will pass on Monday, will continue to fall down it, where is border then, which estimates it?
Money is made by sitting, not trading. Jesse L. Livermore
  • #129,456
  • Aug 8, 2009 11:56pm Aug 8, 2009 11:56pm
Quoting trading801
dont u folks agree the daily up is still valid ?
I saw your reviews & exactly similar to mine , I believe as per technical analysis is still only up though repeated failure .At this level it was very likely to have such sideways till reach the top & finally breakdown.look the weekly & monthly charts too. QQE in monthly crossed up & in lower tf at lower levels ready to build up except H4 which still pointing down movement . Anyway to UP further H4 price needed perhaps this retracement to push higher tf price action to further one step up.Push & pull,stress & strain , and yet up movements.
So there should be every chances of win buying at any bottom .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #129,457
  • Aug 9, 2009 12:41am Aug 9, 2009 12:41am
Quoting The Fool
...... My brief forex trading experience has taken place in a time
when the carry trade has been dead. Is that time coming to an end now?

What, I will have to learn a whole bunch of new crap?
Never stop learning. It's not new it's just different.
And gawd have mercy, so much of it really is crap. Learn it anyway.
The sky is blue....no, the sky is grey. It's the Sun....wait, it's the Moon.

It's like that for a couple years, until you've seen a full boom/bust cycle.
Then, when the next one starts, you'll go, "wait a second, I remember this from the last time....."

Deja-Vu ? Jacuzzi ? Oui-Oui !! (I don't know any more french)
  • #129,458
  • Aug 9, 2009 12:54am Aug 9, 2009 12:54am
Quoting toshi
Never stop learning. It's not new it's just different.
And gawd have mercy, so much of it really is crap. Learn it anyway.
The sky is blue....no, the sky is grey. It's the Sun....wait, it's the Moon.

It's like that for a couple years, until you've seen a full boom/bust cycle.
Then, when the next one starts, you'll go, "wait a second, I remember this from the last time....."

Deja-Vu ? Jacuzzi ? Oui-Oui !! (I don't know any more french)
I know, man, it'll be like Vuja De all over again. Man.

Damn.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #129,459
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:16am Aug 9, 2009 5:16am
buddies.. posted a practical story on a margin call..

do take a look at my humble contribution..

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=189367
  • #129,460
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:52am Aug 9, 2009 5:52am
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