Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1093 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"? 28 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #21,841
  • Aug 7, 2009 2:42pm Aug 7, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting PippiNole
Take care and have a great weekend and some HS.

Or maybe some tepid snuggling
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #21,842
  • Aug 7, 2009 2:54pm Aug 7, 2009 2:54pm
Thanks Ken, Pippi and Eo for your kind words...will check later in the weekend for comments on weekly pin, daily BEAR, etc...gotta love it...PARTY TIME !!!
  • #21,843
  • Aug 7, 2009 2:54pm Aug 7, 2009 2:54pm
eo thanks for the concern im a little down but im over it next week will be a new beginning. im good at the htf pa no prob
but i do have one question

who the heck is bob??? http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/s...aughing025.gif
  • #21,844
  • Aug 7, 2009 2:57pm Aug 7, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting johnnykanoo
who the heck is bob??? http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/s...aughing025.gif
Related To Bob Marley and they were never very far apart..You saw One might see both..


http://images.paraorkut.com/img/arti..._marley-66.jpg
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #21,845
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:28pm Aug 7, 2009 3:28pm
Quoting cisco
Might have a brief stop in the 665x neighborhood.
Been gone since lunch but I see we made it.
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #21,846
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:38pm Aug 7, 2009 3:38pm
Quoting rt4x
To Eo and all those who know the story and care to hear....my son is down to size 34 pants from tight 42's and size M shirt from 2XL....(gastric by-pass surgery made with forex trading right here on this thread
ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND EVERYONE !!!
That's wonderful news...congrats!

As for me...I got my car detailed, the oil changed and installed new toilet seats.

When you get my age it doesn't take much to get you excited!

Have a great weekend everyone and don't forget to love on someone. As always, just don't get caught!
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #21,847
  • Aug 7, 2009 4:01pm Aug 7, 2009 4:01pm
Quoting rt4x
To Eo and all those who know the story and care to hear....my son is down to size 34 pants from tight 42's and size M shirt from 2XL....(gastric by-pass surgery made with forex trading right here on this thread
ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND EVERYONE !!!
thats lovely to hear...made my day! it really did

I must spend more time in here theres a lovely vibe i get from this thread..keep up the good work guys..
  • #21,848
  • Aug 7, 2009 6:29pm Aug 7, 2009 6:29pm
hey guys i was posting a chart at bp's and i thought it was relevant so ill post it here. it is about the weekly pin that formed on her. there was a pinbar formed aprox 10 weeks ago but the bias remained long then sideways which is where we are now. there is a new 2009 high so maybe price will be rejected but there is alot of "traffic" in the way and i think there will be a fight between bears and bulls.

http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/2706/gu1h.gif


http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/7958/gu2.gif

edit* disregard the 700 pip sl it should have been 400 but that is j16 anyway
btw ooooooowwwww that bob, i know bob
  • #21,849
  • Aug 8, 2009 12:07am Aug 8, 2009 12:07am
John Thanks for posting your charts very informative to me as I have never traded long time frames like that. Hope you don't mind I put some PPA stuff on your chart to show the difference in views.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Johns chart.jpg Size: 150 KB
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #21,850
  • Aug 8, 2009 2:27am Aug 8, 2009 2:27am
Quoting nAVIN2007
thats lovely to hear...made my day! it really did

I must spend more time in here theres a lovely vibe i get from this thread..keep up the good work guys..
Your always welcome here bro!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #21,851
  • Aug 8, 2009 2:28am Aug 8, 2009 2:28am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
John Thanks for posting your charts very informative to me as I have never traded long time frames like that. Hope you don't mind I put some PPA stuff on your chart to show the difference in views.
As always Ken! Excellent charts!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #21,852
  • Aug 8, 2009 2:48am Aug 8, 2009 2:48am
Just letting you know how much I appreciate this thread (hence my signature )

I have always been a scalper, and I have been posting more in the scalping/system threads. I am however, studying your way of trading very hard and trying it on demo whenever my pips are made for the day (have to keep the income going) and hopefully soon I will be able to switch to trading this way to get my income - a lot less stressful way of working but not the way I'm used to yet. Keep up the good work everyone, its a real pleasure to read all the posts in here, always pleasant to each other with no egos getting in the way.
  • #21,853
  • Edited 5:23am Aug 8, 2009 4:22am | Edited 5:23am
Quoting johnnykanoo
edit* disregard the 700 pip sl it should have been 400 but that is j16 anyway
btw ooooooowwwww that bob, i know bob
Hi Johnny,

After having studied J16 for 5 months, 18 hours a day, 7 days a week and 3 times through the thread, I thought I'd see if I could help clear up your understanding of the James 16 method. It would seem by your charts that you have the "concept" but you just have it backwards.

Hope you don't mind me using your chart which contains the explanations. I would still trade this way "IF", a) I was simply building a nest egg, b) I had a large enough account to handle the stops on daily c) I could wait for days/weeks for such perfect setups to arrive d) all of the above...lol I hope at some point I come full circle and can trade this way (daily/Weekly). 2 or 3 setups like this a month and LOTS of pips...lol

I still trade this way but had to migrate down to the lower time frames due to my circumstances. That's why I'm here learning EO's method. It takes advantage of what Ken just described by getting in at better places and taking pips from all the smaller moves (up & down) contained within these larger time frames. I'll add that these setups exist on all time frames. EO teaches us how to recognize them and work faster to take advantage of them on lower time frames with less draw down and tighter stops. The key imho to making more pips from smaller accounts. PERFECT for me.

EDIT: Oh I forgot, for conservative trading on the first long, Once the first Target is hit, Stop is moved to BE. When the second Target is hit, stop is moved just under (10 or 20 pips) the first Target. If and when the Third Target is hit (where price was expected to go), you have a choice of closing the remainder of the order and taking the short setup or letting it run and moving the stop to just under the second Target. In this example, that's where you would have been stopped out but with some pretty heavy pipage for sure. So it would have then been on to the second long signal. Same process all over again.

Hope that helps...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: J16 Setup.gif Size: 73 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #21,854
  • Edited 6:28am Aug 8, 2009 6:09am | Edited 6:28am
hey albch that was a weely zoomed in/ i obviously saw the pb. on the other thread there is chatter about taking the gu weekly pb that formed and this chart was aresponse to show the last weekly pb failed miserably (full bar loss)

james says trade weeklys then dailys then h4 and so forth well my arguement was the weeklys are not necessarily more accurate than the dialy.

your daily analysis is spot on and i agree with it whole heartedly so you see i don't have it backwards at all but thanks anyway

i'll post the first chart i was refering too. the reason i thought it was relevant was because it is a weekly pinbar which could indicate a rejection of that new high. the reason i posted the daily was to "zoom in on that one particular pb and to show that in fact the weekly pb failed.

sorry for cluttering this thread.

http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/4695/gu1.gif


I wanted to add that all the daily pa is obvious. when i trade daily i haven't gotten to the point where i would drill down to 4h to manage it and if i was trading h4 i don't mange on the h1 so maybe it is a mistake to not do that. so my point is proven with your analysis because this weekly chart failed while all of the dailys you pointed out worked in particular that pin that was the candle to enter us short from the weekly turned into a bullish pb coz j16 we trade price not closed candles, but to clarify we trade price after a confirmed (closed) price action trigger. so the weekly price action trigger was a pinbar that closed and we would have entered on the break of that pb but not at the close. anyway these stops are to huge for me that is why i am here.

also i need to trade a little more it is my personality. why wait weeks to earn 100 or so pips? just look at the cadchf you risk a whole bar (or 61%) to earn 30 pips? that is the first ppz after waiting how long for it to form?

I am going to take what i learned from j16 and keep that as a core price analysis and I am going to learn from the master coz eo is the man!!!!

sorry for the long post, john
  • #21,855
  • Aug 8, 2009 6:13am Aug 8, 2009 6:13am
ken thanks for your input. i appreciate the expalnation of the wicks. if you get some time could you expound on what you mean by we would wait for price to pull back up the wick on the weekly. i got a litle confused if price pulled up would you be long? or if price pulled up it would be a better short entry?

i thank you for your efforts, john
  • #21,856
  • Aug 8, 2009 6:33am Aug 8, 2009 6:33am
Quoting johnnykanoo
hey albch that was a weely zoomed in/ i obviously saw the pb. on the other thread there is chatter about taking the gu weekly pb that formed and this chart was aresponse to show the last weekly pb failed miserably (full bar loss)

james says trade weeklys then dailys then h4 and so forth well my arguement was the weeklys are not necessarily more accurate than the dialy.

your daily analysis is spot on and i agree with it whole heartedly so you see i don't have it backwards at all but thanks anyway

i'll post the first chart i was...
I understand about the weekly. Based on that chart it's a setup I would not have taken short for two reasons. First, the weekly bar closed with a wick at the bottom indicating buyers might be coming back in. Second, the pin was sitting right on prior S/R (Traffic on my feed). On a side note, we know that not all setups, even perfect ones always work out. One more reason I would have passed on this (as a short) on weekly is the strong up trend. Not such a big deal for the smaller TF's but definitely a strong factor for me on the larger ones. I use the bigger TF's to get an overall view but the smaller ones to confirm likely direction. Between the two, this was not a short setup for me. My understanding is, when trading weekly/daily, James uses monthly/weekly for S/R but trades from the daily or lower.

No clutter from what I can see.

My apologies if I sounded condescending Johnny. It was not my intent...

Chris
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #21,857
  • Edited 7:19am Aug 8, 2009 7:04am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting johnnykanoo
ken thanks for your input. i appreciate the expalnation of the wicks. if you get some time could you expound on what you mean by we would wait for price to pull back up the wick on the weekly. i got a litle confused if price pulled up would you be long? or if price pulled up it would be a better short entry?

i thank you for your efforts, john

I am a sleep right now stayed up late wacthing a great movie Secondhand Lion. It would be a short entry, it is like Fib retracement I will be going over this in lot more detail this weekend..

Enjoy your weekend Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #21,858
  • Aug 8, 2009 7:43am Aug 8, 2009 7:43am
thanks cris i appreciate your input i really do. i have only been studying j16 for 2 months so i am obviously new to the material. i have been trqadig what i see for not even 2 days lol!!!

i am open minded and i humble myself to learn here.

@ken get some rest bro don't even worry about me. we can talk more monday.

thanks, john
  • #21,859
  • Edited 8:59am Aug 8, 2009 8:38am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting johnnykanoo
thanks cris i appreciate your input i really do. i have only been studying j16 for 2 months so i am obviously new to the material. i have been trqadig what i see for not even 2 days lol!!!

i am open minded and i humble myself to learn here.

@ken get some rest bro don't even worry about me. we can talk more monday.

thanks, john
I'm learning too...

Something I've been working on for a few months to help me. Sorry EO, this will be the last "Large" TF post but I'm applying the same "theory" to the lower TF's now to see if it works as well.

At the close of the week I place a vertical line on that candle and a support line between the close and open of the closet prior weeks to the close of that week. In this case the prior two weeks. When I switch to daily, the vertical line is at the beginning of the week and I can now see all the daily candles that made up the weekly. For me, when looked at this way, Monday's candle in the next week tells the tale. With a buy at 10 pips above, the "overall" move (to the peak of this past week) was about 923 pips with a 300 pip "initial" SL.

I'll be spending this weekend doing this on Daily, 4H & 1H candles to see if it's as good.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: J16 Weekly.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: J16 Daily.gif Size: 24 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #21,860
  • Aug 8, 2009 8:43am Aug 8, 2009 8:43am
Quoting johnnykanoo
thanks cris i appreciate your input i really do. i have only been studying j16 for 2 months so i am obviously new to the material. i have been trqadig what i see for not even 2 days lol!!!

i am open minded and i humble myself to learn here.

@ken get some rest bro don't even worry about me. we can talk more monday.

thanks, john
John - One other noteworthy comment, as I remember that weekly pinbar came the first trading week of June. (Weekly candle opened May 31). Take a look at the monthly candle for May and you'll see it was about 1500 pip rise in a single month, and looking through my monthly chart I can't see any time where a monthly move that large turned on a dime (usually took another month or two) as it had huge momentum. (I remember some discussion about this on another thread as well)

Also, while the higher the time frame, usually the better reliability is true, there's no timeframe that will give us 100% accuracy, which is why we need to rely on what has happened in the past to find our edge.
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