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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #40,301
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:04am Aug 7, 2009 5:04am
Quoting fat_tom
One Day!,

You chart is good and readable from here!!!

I'm definetly looking at this as well... like you say lets see where she closes but a good monthly PPZ area as well....

haven't had a chance to have a good look (for other confluence etc) as I'm at work and can only flick MT4 up for a few seconds glance occasionally but she look promising at this stage certainly!!! - be nice to see what the grownups think of this one...

Tom
Thank's for that Tom - I was thinking about the confluences and was wandering whether the fact that it bounced off of the upper Keltner band is significant. Also, it doesn't seem to be a conclusive break out of that ascending triangle!
  • #40,302
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:06am Aug 7, 2009 5:06am
Quoting TiaForex
The usual RR theories simply don't apply here for one reason IMO. When people talk of RR that are not taking into account dynamic trade management. For traditional RR theory you set your SL, your TP and you walk away. One or the other gets hit. Here we do things differently. Our trade management is done on the fly. We get stops to break even. We let trades run nestling our stops behind PPZs on the way down. We don't let ourselves take many full bar losses. So many approaches. All of which make traditional RR difficult to calculate or apply.

Say...
TiaForex,

Good post here! and like you say a good week on the forum after the previous week...

Yes I think we definetly do muddy the waters with regards to R:R with our descretionary approach - I for one have only taken 2 full bar losses (very poorly chosen trades - my first 2 J16 trades - jump on any old pin type of thing) and since then everyother trade has been profit or BE - like you say thats what we do!!!

Now I'm sure you can sucessfully (very!) trade J16 without moving SL etc with a fire and forget type of approach but I for one prefer the move to BE approach even though I know its gonna cost me the odd winner here and there but I really do treat a BE stop as a winner.... take yesterday my short on the GBPEUR got hit by the BOE announcement.. another BE trade... had a smile on my face (seriously) as it still felt like a winner in my book - I was also happy this type of movement is something I can't account for and will happen every now and then - and is EXACTLY the sort of reason for a move SL to BE type approach - to limit how much the markets can hurt us!!!

ok back to work...

Tom
  • #40,303
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:07am Aug 7, 2009 5:07am
For those who shorted the D1 PB and closed out at BE, myself included, the now forming H4 bar may end up to be a decent DBLHC bouncing at the 50 fib ret level of the previous up-move.

Guess that brings up another ?. While the high of daily PB has yet to be violated, indicating the end of it's validity, when would you consider taking a long position, such as the DBLHC forming now on H4? (Assuming it stays as one upon it's close of course)

I ask b/c I feel like I'm trying to make something happen albeit with supporting reasons.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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A lawn mower is not an effective tool to pick-up dog poop!
  • #40,304
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:10am Aug 7, 2009 5:10am
Quoting One day!
Thank's for that Tom - I was thinking about the confluences and was wandering whether the fact that it bounced off of the upper Keltner band is significant. Also, it doesn't seem to be a conclusive break out of that ascending triangle!
One day!,

Keltner bands are something I have never looked at to be honest...

I use NO indicators.. not even MAs at this stage... S/R (PPZ) and PA... thats it!!!

I shall look at the triangle later (maybe lunchtime!)

happy trading!

Tom
  • #40,305
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:10am Aug 7, 2009 5:10am
Quoting joelcf
Nope, its definitely not you! In fact, there is even a name for it - the efficient market hypothesis - and it is the basis of all modern finance

Broadly, the EMH states that in an efficient market, price incorporates all known information.
...................................
hey joelcf

thanks for your this inspiration post and others that you have made in the last days

it's good to see people like you having around us with such a clear view

this post was helpfully for my b/c at this moment I was looking for more insight information about this

thanks buddy!
  • #40,306
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:20am Aug 7, 2009 5:20am
Quoting Jazflyer
For those who shorted the D1 PB and closed out at BE, myself included, the now forming H4 bar may end up to be a decent DBLHC bouncing at the 50 fib ret level of the previous up-move.

Guess that brings up another ?. While the high of daily PB has yet to be violated, indicating the end of it's validity, when would you consider taking a long position, such as the DBLHC forming now on H4? (Assuming it stays as one upon it's close of course)

I ask b/c I feel like I'm trying to make something happen albeit with supporting reasons.
Personally I wouldn't trade a shorter timeframe PA against a larger one. I'm sure a lot do sucessfully but to me it would be a good enough reason not to take the trade.

I'm trying to find reasons not to take trades and whilst the daily pin is still active I wouldn't trade against it... there maybe some strict j16 traders still in this trade if it hasn't been invalidated so it presents a strange kinda J16 contradiction that I for one wouldn't trade against... (this argument would however weaken depending on the distance between the 2 time frames - eg a H4 PA in the opposite direction to a montly PA would be far safer than for example a H1 opposing an H4 I would have thought..)

just my opinion and I'm still strictly trading daily/weekly timeframes so don't have any experience of the lower timeframes...

right...

now I really DO have to get back to work...

Tom
  • #40,307
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:21am Aug 7, 2009 5:21am
Quoting One day!
Thank's for that Tom - I was thinking about the confluences and was wandering whether the fact that it bounced off of the upper Keltner band is significant. Also, it doesn't seem to be a conclusive break out of that ascending triangle!
Dear One day!

I do not think You will find many supporters of Keltner's Channels here,
I tested this method for some time, but left it for PA,
if You are interested look here
http://www.forexfactory.com/t/121254...channel-4.html

Good luck
Peter
Jesus Christ is my only Lord !
  • #40,308
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:26am Aug 7, 2009 5:26am
Quoting fat_tom
Personally I wouldn't trade a shorter timeframe PA against a larger one....
Thanks Tom. I feel the same way about trading my way into a squeeze. Up until the point of the last H4 bar (which triggered my BE close) I was just trying to manage my D1 short trade on that TF but then started to think of the forming PA and it's validity.

Cheers
A lawn mower is not an effective tool to pick-up dog poop!
  • #40,309
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:39am Aug 7, 2009 5:39am
Quoting hipcio
Dear One day!

I do not think You will find many supporters of Keltner's Channels here,
I tested this method for some time, but left it for PA,
if You are interested look here
http://www.forexfactory.com/t/121254...channel-4.html

Good luck
Peter
Thank you Peter - those results would be painful on a live account! - I only added them as I believe J16 uses/used them and I was wandering if they would be effective if you looked to buy/sell on the rentry of a bar back in to the band. Pin bars quite often seem to poke through the channels - so I thought maybe this might add weight.
  • #40,310
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:55am Aug 7, 2009 5:55am
@ghous wow great post your beutiful man honestly you open yourself up to people and stand unashamed as you should. I just wanted to tell you, you are an inspiration to all




http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-happy014.gif
  • #40,311
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:56am Aug 7, 2009 5:56am
@joel as usual excellant post. i always leave your posts with a greater understanding of how these markets work so thank you.
  • #40,312
  • Aug 7, 2009 6:00am Aug 7, 2009 6:00am
@bundy

i didn't abandon my ideas about r:r but everybody here especially mike "beat me up" on it and told me r:r is a myth. so i quietly accept that and have concluded that if you pick your target based on stop loss or vice versa than you will fail. so in that sense they are right.

I do however see your point that I have the ability to choose only high r:r trades for example ones where i can put my stop behind a ppz and has alot of space. but i try to always be open minded about everything i read and that is my advice to kk. If somebody came before you and is successful now than you owe it to yourself to see what they are doing and learn from them.
  • #40,313
  • Edited 6:55am Aug 7, 2009 6:40am | Edited 6:55am
ummm whats going on here then....

Tom

EDIT: Poor employment figures by the looks of things....
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  • #40,314
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:02am Aug 7, 2009 7:02am
Guys GBPJPY H4 Pin Bar

Stated some comments in the picture.

Please advise.
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  • #40,315
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:06am Aug 7, 2009 7:06am
Quoting tradertt
Guys GBPJPY H4 Pin Bar

Stated some comments in the picture.

Please advise.
http://smiliesftw.com/x/ackbartrapfinal.gif

You called it right there bro, trading back into the 1.60 is suicide.
  • #40,316
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:12am Aug 7, 2009 7:12am
Quoting fat_tom
ummm whats going on here then....

Tom

EDIT: Poor employment figures by the looks of things....
Being a complete novice at fundies... could you help me understand how you came to that conclusion? I'll take a stab at it and you tell me how far off I am...

If employment # is bad, or worse than expected, then that would signal that we are not coming out of the recession yet.
That would imply that the world economies stink.
That would imply that we should put our money in the safest vehicle...
which would be USD...
more eager buying of USD would make price go up...

But this pair doesn't have USD in it... this is where I'm baffled. Please help?

Josh
  • #40,317
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:17am Aug 7, 2009 7:17am
Quoting Jduester
Being a complete novice at fundies... could you help me understand how you came to that conclusion? I'll take a stab at it and you tell me how far off I am...

If employment # is bad, or worse than expected, then that would signal that we are not coming out of the recession yet.
That would imply that the world economies stink.
That would imply that we should put our money in the safest vehicle...
which would be USD...
more eager buying of USD would make price go up...

But this pair doesn't have USD in it... this is where I'm baffled. Please...
Ok Firstly I know nothing of fundies either - to be honest I don't really want to either...

front page of FF news!! CAD figures 2-3 times worse than expected apprently... can't be good for the country in general and therefore the currency... there thats my limit of fundemental anlaysis!!! LOL!!

Tom
  • #40,318
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:20am Aug 7, 2009 7:20am
Quoting fat_tom
Ok Firstly I know nothing of fundies either - to be honest I don't really want to either...

front page of FF news!! CAD figures 2-3 times worse than expected apprently... can't be good for the country in general and therefore the currency... there thats my limit of fundemental anlaysis!!! LOL!!

Tom
Ok, I see it now... the CAD employment was worse, which would mean the CAD stinks, so sell it... selling it means EUR/CAD goes up...

I jumped to the conclusion that you were talking about the US figures coming out shortly. Thanks for clarification... now back to the charts

In any case, I'm glad it jumped, cause I'm in from that sub-perfect weekly pin!

Josh
  • #40,319
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:28am Aug 7, 2009 7:28am
Quoting Jduester
Ok, I see it now... the CAD employment was worse, which would mean the CAD stinks, so sell it... selling it means EUR/CAD goes up...

I jumped to the conclusion that you were talking about the US figures coming out shortly. Thanks for clarification... now back to the charts

In any case, I'm glad it jumped, cause I'm in from that sub-perfect weekly pin!

Josh
shhhh!!! me too - don't tell any of the grown ups or we'll be grounded or something....
  • #40,320
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:34am Aug 7, 2009 7:34am
Quoting tradertt
Guys GBPJPY H4 Pin Bar

Stated some comments in the picture.

Please advise.

Hi tradertt,

This pin bar is diving into a PPZ which is also a round number 160.00.

Well I'm not a senior member, but IMO you would like to take trades which bunch off PPZ and not into them.
Look at all those bar lows. They will most likely act as resistance. price flips - old support, price breaks through, now it will act as resistance. That is what Jim actually teaches.
This trade doesn't have much room.
I will add to this....zoom into the daily and you will notice that the 162.500 zone is a significant resistance area. Price is currently forming a double top...kinda swing high (on daily), which is an ideal place to look for buob, dbhlc, PB (bearish setups).
That's for location.

Also the PB itself isn't the best looking one IMO, brcause it's nose is quite short.

Again, I am also new....JMO of course.

Hope it helps


Ben



ETID: I can see it is taking off a bit in your direction after all. Did you take the trade? If you did, I will advice you to put an eye on the 162.00 - 162.50 level for an exit.
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