james16 Chart Thread
yeah, you have to figure there are insiders that know the numbers ahead of time and position themselves. PA tips there hand. Can't prove it, but my theory.
I posted something like that about 3 months ago Jigsaw, but I think you are on to something
No one responded back then, so I guess it was over looked....
Here is a trade a GBP/CAD trade I was in earlier today....
You asked some good questions tradertt. I can't post charts right now. I'll try to answer them later tonight.
Concerning the BEOBs, let me borrow your 4 hour BEOB on the Gbp/Jpy chart and ghous's BEOB on the Weekly Cad/Jpy.
Notice that ghous BEOB is at a Swing High compared to the previous candles. The BEOB happened at the peak or highest point of the swing high. Very Nice.
Now notice that on your 4 hour BEOB on the Gby/Jpy is not at the peak or highest point. Its in a consolidation area of the previous candles.
Yes, the consolidation is...
Alright I have been noticing this over and over and over (and over) and today was another example of it, thought I would just throw it out there for other peoples opinions.
Is it just me, or say when big news releases happen, the news actually breaks in the way which price action shows in the previous hours. An example of the news today with the QE announced by BOE.
>snip<
Anyone with any thoughts ? Either way I am going to be watching for PA to show it's hand in relation to the NFP tomorrow :nerd:
Alright I have been noticing this over and over and over (and over) and today was another example of it, thought I would just throw it out there for other peoples opinions.
Is it just me, or say when big news releases happen, the news actually breaks in the way which price action shows in the previous hours. An example of the news today with the QE announced by BOE.
On the 1HR GBP Index we have a bearish outside bar that never broke, which was followed by a pinbar on the last hourly candle before the news.
On the 1HR GBPUSD we see a 1HR...
Is it just me, or say when big news releases happen, the news actually breaks in the way which price action shows in the previous hours. An example of the news today with the QE announced by BOE.
It also means, by extention, that if you choose to try and 'trade' these announcements based on your own view, you have probably been beaten to it. All the big guys positioned their money *well* beforehand. And probably have better data to go on than you. Some people can do it, some people cant - anecdotally, most home traders that try and newstrade get lucky now and then, but generally lose.
This also relates to something that has been thrown around here a bit lately - should we look at fundamentals and PA, or just charts? In effect, the question answers itself - the charts incorporate the fundamentals, so you are already looking at them.
Personally, I combine them for my main account (I also have a short term j16 account, which is why I am here learning!) - I have a market position I want to take, based on economic fundamentals, and I use the methods we learn here to get low-risk / no risk entries in the direction I want. But for my short term account, which is what I am learning here, I try to ignore all outside stuff since it just adds noise (plus, Mike and James told us to, and that is good enough for me!). I kinda suck at it at the moment, but I'm improving
EMH attracts alot of flak (2), but generally only from either people who dont really understand it, or people who do understand it but want to twist its conclusions for their own marketing purposes ('YOU can beat Wall Street! They are all stupid, you can outsmart them... just send me 4 easy payments of $199.95 and attend my $5000 seminar!). But to dismiss it out of hand is probably silly.
The theory itself is actually very sound - it is just that markets get out of line, become inefficient, make bad predictions, etc. And it is easy to see why - the 'market' is really just millions of people like me, you guys, pension fund managers, Jim Cramer, etc(3). And we are far from perfect, and dont always act rationally(4).
yeah, you have to figure there are insiders that know the numbers ahead of time and position themselves. PA tips there hand. Can't prove it, but my theory.
Nope, its definitely not you! In fact, there is even a name for it - the efficient market hypothesis - and it is the basis of all modern finance
Broadly, the EMH states that in an efficient market, price incorporates all known information.
>major snippage<
Nope, its definitely not you! In fact, there is even a name for it - the efficient market hypothesis - and it is the basis of all modern finance
Broadly, the EMH states that in an efficient market, price incorporates all known information.
Some smart guys (ignoring the fact that they later had a massive shocker with LTCM(5) and almost crashed the world) in the 1960s had pretty much the same observation as you - price seems to already 'know' these news releases before they are made.
So they...
Nope, its definitely not you! In fact, there is even a name for it - the efficient market hypothesis - and it is the basis of all modern finance
Broadly, the EMH states that in an efficient market, price incorporates all known information.
Yeah - it really does do that Jig......
Nope, its definitely not you! In fact, there is even a name for it - the efficient market hypothesis - and it is the basis of all modern finance
Broadly, the EMH states that in an efficient market, price incorporates all known information.
Some smart guys (ignoring the fact that they later had a massive shocker with LTCM(5) and almost crashed the world) in the 1960s had pretty much the same observation as you - price seems to already 'know' these news releases before they are made.
So they...
