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  • #129,061
  • Aug 6, 2009 8:39pm Aug 6, 2009 8:39pm
Quoting chngster
Just putting this out to the scalpers:

(1) does anyone use Depth of Market (DOM) indicators to scalp?

(2) how effective are DOMs in scalping news (e.g. like NFP tonight)?

(3) Which broker offers good DOM analysis? I've d/led MBTrading demo which has DOM but still try to make heads or tails of it...

Chngster
In spot, it's hard to say how much a DOM ladder will help you
because some brokers control what you see and what you get.

With STP from an ECN, if you're trading any kind of size, you should see
the number of lots bid or offered increase/decrease as you hit or join
those bids/offers. If that's not happening in real time, your DOM is phoney.

With futures it's a little different. Since everything nowadays is fairly much "E" traded,
bids and offers are matched on a first entered, first filled basis. So if I join
the offer ahead of you with 3 contracts, then you join selling 5 at that same price
and then an order buying 5 at our price hits our offers, I'll sell my 3 and you'll sell 2,
leaving the rest to be filled by the next bid. Maybe you already know all that.

Regarding NFP and other news releases:

The DOM goes apeshit.

a few seconds before the release, (almost) all the bids/offers "disappear".
If you we're looking to get filled a hundred points away, this is you chance.
A stray market order hitting your price is either your good fortune or your misfortune.
The fills are so wild and unpredictable that anything can happen.

Here's what things look like under "normal" conditions:
(you'll notce 4 contracts bid by 1 offered and 4 more behind it.)
Ordinarily, the market can be moved (however temporarily) by a few contracts
when conditions are quiet and thin like now.

As far as spot fx, again, it depends who's pulling the strings (or pulling your chain).
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  • #129,062
  • Aug 6, 2009 8:41pm Aug 6, 2009 8:41pm
Quoting realjumper
My bias is still short
D1
8EMA has been a great support for quite sometimes already. Price need to close below this MA consistently before we can say the bear is start controlling the market. Also, be cautious of the Sup TL (see arrow: it was a strong Res TL previously).

H4
Tight move in this mini Channel (or should I call it FLAG?...whatever it is..) so far. Let us see if we can reach PW 1.4270 by today.

Come on bear...!!! Enough for bull already...!!!
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  • #129,063
  • Aug 6, 2009 8:50pm Aug 6, 2009 8:50pm
Quoting toshi
..

Regarding NFP and other news releases:

The DOM goes apeshit.
Moshi moshi toshi,

So how do you trade around the NFP & other big "news" events, or do you?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #129,064
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:06pm Aug 6, 2009 9:06pm
Quoting toshi
In spot, it's hard to say how much a DOM ladder will help you
because some brokers control what you see and what you get.

With STP from an ECN, if you're trading any kind of size, you should see
the number of lots bid or offered increase/decrease as you hit or join
those bids/offers. If that's not happening in real time, your DOM is phoney.

With futures it's a little different. Since everything nowadays is fairly much "E" traded,
bids and offers are matched on a first entered, first filled basis. So if I join
the offer ahead of you with 3...

When you are playing cards, will you let somebody see your cards? And yet people still believe in this kind of "DOM" propaganda from their brokers!

Believe me my friend the big sharks will never...NEVER, let you see what is going on in the real market deep.
  • #129,065
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:07pm Aug 6, 2009 9:07pm
And that's precisely what I'm concerned about - the real time factor. DOM will be useless for scalping if your broker is laggy. If anyone has any suggestions as to the best real-time DOM to use (thx for suggesting Dukascopy already) pls let us know. Also re: your picture of your DOM, what platform did that come from?

(On a side note to everyone in general: is it true that if your broker is ECN-based it will always be slightly laggy as it waits on the results of the maker-makers to feed back to it?)

Just curious though: what do you mean all the orders "disappear" seconds before the NFP drops? You mean the specific broker is being a dodgy dealer? Or you mean there is SO much traffic broker gets shortcircuited because it cannot handle.


Quoting toshi
In spot, it's hard to say how much a DOM ladder will help you
because some brokers control what you see and what you get.

With STP from an ECN, if you're trading any kind of size, you should see
the number of lots bid or offered increase/decrease as you hit or join
those bids/offers. If that's not happening in real time, your DOM is phoney.

With futures it's a little different. Since everything nowadays is fairly much "E" traded,
bids and offers are matched on a first entered, first filled basis. So if I join
the offer ahead of you...
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
  • #129,066
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:08pm Aug 6, 2009 9:08pm
Quoting ak4x
Re: NFP numbers... won't matter soon, you ain''t seen nuthin yet.

http://www.bls.gov/web/laummtrk.htm

Look at the top where the numbers are <5% and see where they are. Ask yourself what doubling those numbers would look like...

Double the unemployment in lowest rated Bismarck North Dakota or similar place ((est. metro pop a'rd 100k)) goes from 3.8 to 7.5%

OK. That's tough on the folks that live there but a drop in the bucket nationwide. 100k/7.5% = 7,500

Double the unemployment in one of the higher rated and large industrial...
i could say something but no need. murphys law. move over europe/japan s. korea beat you at your own game. checkmate. turn the lights out on your way out.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #129,067
  • Edited 9:25pm Aug 6, 2009 9:09pm | Edited 9:25pm
In regards to NFP.

If you are not already in a profitable position(few hundred pips) guarded by a stop, simply do not trade this type of event. Price is too volatile and cannot be predicted, it would be like gambling your account. So for anyone that is new stay away from it tomorrow.

Cheers.
  • #129,068
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:12pm Aug 6, 2009 9:12pm
Looking for 4326. Do you think we make it?
  • #129,069
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:16pm Aug 6, 2009 9:16pm
Inserted Video


use your own judgement
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #129,070
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:19pm Aug 6, 2009 9:19pm
I decided to exit at +10 pips since it was just a scalp originally, best not to be greedy.
  • #129,071
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:22pm Aug 6, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting ak4x
Re: NFP numbers... won't matter soon, you ain''t seen nuthin yet.

http://www.bls.gov/web/laummtrk.htm

Look at the top where the numbers are <5% and see where they are. Ask yourself what doubling those numbers would look like...

Double the unemployment in lowest rated Bismarck North Dakota or similar place ((est. metro pop a'rd 100k)) goes from 3.8 to 7.5%

OK. That's tough on the folks that live there but a drop in the bucket nationwide. 100k/7.5% = 7,500

Double the unemployment in one of the higher rated and large industrial...
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #129,072
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:25pm Aug 6, 2009 9:25pm
What time does this NFP announcement take place?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #129,073
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:32pm Aug 6, 2009 9:32pm
7:30am USD
Non-Farm Employment Change
http://cloud.forexfactory.com/images...etail_star.gif

-320K -467K
CST

It's on the home page
  • #129,074
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:36pm Aug 6, 2009 9:36pm
Quoting auxesis
7:30am USD
Non-Farm Employment Change
http://cloud.forexfactory.com/images...etail_star.gif

-320K -467K
CST

It's on the home page

Great. Thank you

Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #129,075
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:37pm Aug 6, 2009 9:37pm
Quoting realjumper
What time does this NFP announcement take place?
Does it really matter?

In your analysis, if there was no such thing as news, would you still be profitable with current price action?
ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #129,076
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:39pm Aug 6, 2009 9:39pm
12.30 GMT. See www.FXStreet.com for the full economic calender.

EFX and MBT are the two names that are coming up for having decent DOM indicators. They also say that MT5 will include DOM, but regardless, isn't the issue still about how much access to liquidity your broker has?

Quoting realjumper
What time does this NFP announcement take place?
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
  • #129,077
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:40pm Aug 6, 2009 9:40pm
Quoting realjumper
What time does this NFP announcement take place?
Go to dailyfx.com they literally have a freakin' countdown for that event.

*No trading +-1hr around major news for me.
ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #129,078
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:44pm Aug 6, 2009 9:44pm
Quoting chngster
Also re: your picture of your DOM, what platform did that come from?.
That's an OEC software platform, fairly much standard software available thru any of their IBs.
E-Cry is an FCM and usually cut their IBs a dirt cheap rate based on volume.

Quoting chngster
Just curious though: what do you mean all the orders "disappear" seconds before the NFP drops?
You mean the specific broker is being a dodgy dealer?
Or you mean there is SO much traffic broker gets shortcircuited because it cannot handle.
I mean exactly that: one minute you see orders stacked at price points in succession,
one after the other, maybe a little jumpy but they're there, then boom everything goes haywire
as price discovery takes it's natural course. It's due to order imbalances on the scale
of perhaps billions of dollars in notional value trying to squeeze thru the pipe at the same time.
  • #129,079
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:45pm Aug 6, 2009 9:45pm
Just a hunch we are about to drop hard.
  • #129,080
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:46pm Aug 6, 2009 9:46pm
How Will the US Dollar React?

At the end of the day, the US dollar is likely to only respond dramatically to a surprising result, where NFPs fall by far more or far less than forecasts.

However, with leading indicators showing that the NFPs could reflect an improvement in the labor markets, we need to keep what happened on June 5 in mind. Indeed, on this date, NFPs has been forecasted to plunge by 520,000, but instead, they dropped by 345,000 and sent the US dollar surging, which was unusual because that greenback had generally been gaining only when economic news was disappointing due to market-wide flight-to-safety.

Now, we’re still seeing a fairly strong link between the US dollar and risk trends, but if NFPs fall by much less than 328,000, a rally in the US currency could lead EUR/USD below immediate support toward the confluence of the 50 SMA and rising trendline support at 1.4080/1.4100. On the other hand, results in line with expectations could keep EUR/USD range bound between former resistance points at 1.4340 and 1.4435.
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
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