Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1077 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"? 28 replies

How do you see trading - Do you see it as a means to an end? 12 replies

how long do you expect to trade? 10 replies

Trade What You See And Not What You Hope 0 replies

Attachments: Trade what you see NOT what you expect
Exit Attachments

Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #21,521
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:43pm Aug 6, 2009 1:43pm
Ok...limbo again.........

Here's the kicker. If I had a 35 pip SL, and the guts to hold it, I'd still be in it. Now watch it fall.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #21,522
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:49pm Aug 6, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting eohater
I'm not sure what the success of those trades are....
well done fella well done! ive been stuggling in this game for 4+years if i remember correctly but ve become more or less consistent since december. Aiming to double my account by the end of the year with the rate its going.

really want to learn your system and be as good as you ...... (yeah right if that ever gonna happen) at the moment only using 5min 14/21emas they work really nice on first pullbacks after trend has started. other than that just countertrading at support, resistance level.
  • #21,523
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:49pm Aug 6, 2009 1:49pm
OK, I'd like to run an idea by everyone. As you know, tomorrow is NFP. Forecast is -333K, previous is -467K. Each of the last 4 weekly reports haven't been great, but haven't been terrible either. In fact, averaged out they were slightly better than expectations, but only slightly. Why the sudden improvement in NFP to -333K?

I know we trade technicals here, but I was thinking about shorting one of the Yen crosses before the news is released with a relatively tight stop above - looking for a bigger move down. I just don't see where this improvement would have come from. Any thoughts?
  • #21,524
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:51pm Aug 6, 2009 1:51pm
will be interesting to see how this 15min candle closes. could signal reversal imho.
  • #21,525
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:53pm Aug 6, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting elliot_l
OK, I'd like to run an idea by everyone. As you know, tomorrow is NFP. Forecast is -333K, previous is -467K. Each of the last 4 weekly reports haven't been great, but haven't been terrible either. In fact, averaged out they were slightly better than expectations, but only slightly. Why the sudden improvement in NFP to -333K?

I know we trade technicals here, but I was thinking about shorting one of the Yen crosses before the news is released with a relatively tight stop above - looking for a bigger move down. I just don't see where this improvement...

There's no one left to fire.. The buldings are empty... Oz posted a gain in employment last night.. But it because the had changed fulltime workers to part time.. So they needed more to fill the same hours.. It is all smoke and mirrors at this point and it will come unglued at some point..

As far as your trade I can't help you I don't trade during news times I am a ..
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #21,526
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:54pm Aug 6, 2009 1:54pm
Quoting elliot_l
OK, I'd like to run an idea by everyone....
from my experience tight losses work only rarely on news releases - like today on cable if you took short with tight stop just before the news it would have worked but then after unemployment claims data release price went one way then quickly turneed around. in general though news are too volatile for my linking to use tight stops.
  • #21,527
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:55pm Aug 6, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting lexazver
well done fella well done! ive been stuggling in this game for 4+years if i remember correctly but ve become more or less consistent since december. Aiming to double my account by the end of the year with the rate its going.

really want to learn your system and be as good as you ...... (yeah right if that ever gonna happen) at the moment only using 5min 14/21emas they work really nice on first pullbacks after trend has started. other than that just countertrading at support, resistance level.
If you becoming consistant, then your on the right track. My anniversary is coming up here in 9 days, I'll be starting my 7th year. I remember it like yesterday when I discovered this crazy market. I thought at first I'd be in the riches in no time. Boy was I wrong.

The key to any system is that it has to fit your personality and lifestyle.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #21,528
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:56pm Aug 6, 2009 1:56pm
Hey EO your man Perry is in the clubhouse at -1. Tiger is -1 after 7 holes and the leader in the clubhouse is at -4.
  • #21,529
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:58pm Aug 6, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting elliot_l
OK, I'd like to run an idea by everyone. As you know, tomorrow is NFP. Forecast is -333K, previous is -467K. Each of the last 4 weekly reports haven't been great, but haven't been terrible either. In fact, averaged out they were slightly better than expectations, but only slightly. Why the sudden improvement in NFP to -333K?

I know we trade technicals here, but I was thinking about shorting one of the Yen crosses before the news is released with a relatively tight stop above - looking for a bigger move down. I just don't see where this improvement...
I'm definately not capable of answering this question. Only technicals for me, the emotions are too much otherwise to worry about the stability of one country blah blah blah.

Don't just throw a trade out, take a trade because PA showed you the way.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #21,530
  • Aug 6, 2009 1:59pm Aug 6, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting PippiNole
Hey EO your man Perry is in the clubhouse at -1. Tiger is -1 after 7 holes and the leader in the clubhouse is at -4.
Sweet! Go Kenny!

Now, run Tiger, run! He'll have the lead just after the turn.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #21,531
  • Aug 6, 2009 2:00pm Aug 6, 2009 2:00pm
Quoting lexazver
from my experience tight losses work only rarely on news releases - like today on cable if you took short with tight stop just before the news it would have worked but then after unemployment claims data release price went one way then quickly turneed around. in general though news are too volatile for my linking to use tight stops.
As I learned from my beginning (a whopping 10 months ago), I'd never trade around the news. At this point I'm beginning to think it's the only time to trade because it seems it's the only time anything happens....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #21,532
  • Aug 6, 2009 2:01pm Aug 6, 2009 2:01pm
funny how 15min candle look bullish and then 40 seconds later bearish
  • #21,533
  • Aug 6, 2009 2:05pm Aug 6, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting albchr
As I learned from my beginning (a whopping 10 months ago), I'd never trade around the news. At this point I'm beginning to think it's the only time to trade because it seems it's the only time anything happens....
Ill dissagree with that

if you are in the right position before the news you can use relatively tight stop. e.g yesterday after we saw double top at 7040 area if you had taken short from there with stop just above it and just waited you'd be alot happier today
  • #21,534
  • Aug 6, 2009 2:05pm Aug 6, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting lexazver
funny how 15min candle look bullish and then 40 seconds later bearish
PRIME EXAMPLE HERE. We cannot trade the working candles, only the prior closed candles. Working candles will show one flight and then change in a blink of an eye before you know what happened. I've seen h1 pin/hammers that had 15m left in formation complete to be a bearish candle and continue on. Traders start getting edgy when they see the h1 pin/hammer and feel like they're going to miss their seat, so they jump 15m early thinking they got on ahead of others, when after they get on their sitting their and realize the bus is empty and everyone else got on the other one.

So, we go to our lower TF, m15 and see what price is doing and why. If the h1 does close like a pin/hammer, can we get in on a little pullback or should we just go ahead and claim our seat now.

This is how you put all the TF together. Same goes with h4 and the m15 candles.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #21,535
  • Aug 6, 2009 2:07pm Aug 6, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting lexazver
Ill dissagree with that

if you are in the right position before the news you can use relatively tight stop. e.g yesterday after we saw double top at 7040 area if you had taken short from there with stop just above it and just waited you'd be alot happier today
I was on that short bus at 7035. That was part of my position as well that I drove down here. I booked some good profit, let price come back up into 702x area, added at 7022, booked some more profit, we went into a range, I added again at 7000 and now look where we're at.

The news is noise to me. I just won't get into a position when news is released.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #21,536
  • Aug 6, 2009 2:09pm Aug 6, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting lexazver
Ill dissagree with that

if you are in the right position before the news you can use relatively tight stop. e.g yesterday after we saw double top at 7040 area if you had taken short from there with stop just above it and just waited you'd be alot happier today
Ummmm...I was joking...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #21,537
  • Aug 6, 2009 2:17pm Aug 6, 2009 2:17pm
Do you guys want me to show you a visual about trend?
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #21,538
  • Aug 6, 2009 2:17pm Aug 6, 2009 2:17pm
Good afternoon guys. Hope u did better on this drop then I did today.

Had a nice squad headed south and closed my last long from 6950 area on the run up in early Asian to 7030 area.....up 50 when i locked in 10 at 7015 and called it a night. When I heard them get taken out early euro session i just rolled over hoping it was a bad dream.

Tried longs today around 6850, 6800 and 6760. Lost a little on the first one but managed to take a little profit and get out at BE on the other 2.

That is what is so good about EO's system. When it hits a target level take it, take some profit and cover your entry with your stop. There are no good or bad calls....just trades that don't work out. Get a good entry and you should not loose money.

EO mentioned the 21ema earlier....I have been looking for a 1st touch on it but it may be getting a little late in the session.
  • #21,539
  • Aug 6, 2009 2:18pm Aug 6, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting eohater
Do you guys want me to show you a visual about trend?
Sure..I could use something to pickup my mood a bit.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #21,540
  • Aug 6, 2009 2:20pm Aug 6, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting eohater
Do you guys want me to show you a visual about trend?
I kind of liked the salute visual myself.
5 traders viewing now