EURUSD

I'm willing to bet (extremely confident) that we will be going down Strongly.

See pic below for what I call the 'scary bastard' candles, lol.

And yes they are scary.

My 24 ema is at 1.4367. If it breaks-I am thinking retrace.

Sell. Price will re-test inverted H&S support before continuing bullish trend

And the support has been broken. Down we go.

Trying to break.

...or a good time to build a long position

Believe me -that is what I am trying to figure out. lol

well.. if s p 500 is down later too.. then i guess the bulll market may be over soon

I have a limit order waiting to be triggered

Limit Sell

Entry Trigger=4415
Stop Loss=4465
Take Profit=4322

The annoying thing is that I may miss the boat. Either way I'm extremely confident that we will be heading strongly to the downside. Almost every time I see one of those scary candles we go in its direction very strongly.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1249386030

Not saying that it is always right but man, I reckon 8/10 times I see that type of candle it goes screaming in its direction.

the same sell limit

May I know how did you figured out that 4465 SL? Seems too high

What sort of analysis did you do to come to the same conclusion?

It's always interesting to see others viewpoints

SAMEEEEE?

Euro / usd Daily Chart.

My crappy mt4 newsfeed says short side limited due to options expiration at 4400 combined with news. Volume is down though.

I hope yes. Looks like an ideal position to enter. But if you want to be sure, you can wait for the second candle to finish and loose some pips.

Yep, no problem.

The most recent highest high on the 1hr chart is = 4445

I'm always mindful of psychological levels, so if price were to go against me most likely it will look to breach the 4450 level. But how much it will breach it I don't know.

Normally I like to go 10pips above the psyche level and put a stop loss there. So in this case that would be 4460. But because this is going to be a major news release, I've figured that there could be a lot of volatility, so just to be safe, I've added a further 5pips.

You're probably right though, 4460 probably is enough.

In fact, if I wanted to be even more tight, 4452 could even work. Because if price does make a higher high than 4445 then there is a greater probablity that the whole trade is wrecked and that price will spike strongly in the upwards direction.

IF price does breach the 4445 level then most likely I will abort the trade as quickly as possible, that is, I will watch to see if price comes back down at my entry price or if I should terminate asap. It all depends on how I see price at that time.

Also, having said all of that, i only ever risk 1% per trade. So if I lose, it's not the end of the world for me.

sell. last chance

mmmmm... tempting!

Looks like a nice analysis. Psychology is the best. But before it breaks daily high, which here is 4445 it usually bounces from some downlevel zone, a bit under daily low. So the bounce above 4445 should start around 4360 and you could notice that and close it earlier. But thats just a speculation of course.

Btw, have you read Tony Plummers: Forecasting Financial Markets? There is a lot about psychological analysis and I really enjoyed reading this book.