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0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

  • #561
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:13am Aug 4, 2009 12:13am
Quoting Bobcat2
Hi fed,

Ok then...7 pip buffer not needed anymore because of the EMA 90 filter?

So...
1 pip buffer + broker spread for Buy entries;
1 pip buffer for Sell entries

Do I have this correct?

Thanks and good trading for tonight!
Bob
correct, I won't even use the spread either now. I was even thinking of 2 pips but hey really 1 pip looks just as fine as well.
  • #562
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:14am Aug 4, 2009 12:14am
Quoting Bobcat2
fed,

You didn't mention if you were using the RSI13 with the 90 EMA. Since you haven't mentioned it, I assume you aren't using the RSI.

I have noticed at times the RSI seems to be in disagreement with the price relationship with the 90 EMA...seems somewhat confusing.

My biggest concern in utiliizing the filters we may be establishing a better hit rate, but we will be also filtering out some pretty decent profits.

Please advise.
I have RSI on my chart but I don't look at it to be honest.
  • #563
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:18am Aug 4, 2009 12:18am
Quoting johnedoe
As usual.... a system that has a proven edge gets distorted beyond recognition.
Also by the way...... fed did not start this thread...
I know he didnt but original guy doesnt seem to be here anymore, since the strat was adopted, its fine ive read it over a few times and i understand
  • #564
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:22am Aug 4, 2009 12:22am
I will only be looking for longs tonight because of EMA 90 is below the box. It is way below, the price could retrace to EMA 90 first, and then expected to move up.
  • #565
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:27am Aug 4, 2009 12:27am
I have been using MA of 89 and 178 and a few smaller ones for the last 2 months on my charts.

The 178 is known as the 'money line' Im not to sure why it is, but I got all this info from a friend who has pro trader friends, so maybe the 178 line can help aswell for a longer trend.
  • #566
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:35am Aug 4, 2009 12:35am
there could be no entry tonight, there was a similar senerio where the EMA 90 was way below and the price still went through the line and never returned on the up side back on june 25th with g/j. Tonight could be one of those nights.
  • #567
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:38am Aug 4, 2009 12:38am
it looks like it will head down, but all my indicators are telling me differnet RSI is pretty low, so if it does swing round least we know its got a long way to go.
  • #568
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:42am Aug 4, 2009 12:42am
Quoting wawarulez
it looks like it will head down, but all my indicators are telling me differnet RSI is pretty low, so if it does swing round least we know its got a long way to go.
so true, hopefully it is a small retracement and the price will return up for a long entry.
  • #569
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:46am Aug 4, 2009 12:46am
I usually look at stocks and it is in the oversold and looks like the price is testing the open candel right at 00:00GMT, if that price stays strong then it will return back up, if not then the price could break the sup line and the price could continue downwards.
  • #570
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:46am Aug 4, 2009 12:46am
On page 1 of this thread tasciy sets the period as 4 - 7 am GMT which is 5 - 8 BST.

8 am is the London open. We are still 75 minutes away.
Gone to a better place
  • #571
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:55am Aug 4, 2009 12:55am
Looks like the price found a sup line, and it might head up, lets see how it turns out, good night, good morning or good afternoon where ever you all are.
  • #572
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:59am Aug 4, 2009 12:59am
Quoting smikester
On page 1 of this thread tasciy sets the period as 4 - 7 am GMT which is 5 - 8 BST.

8 am is the London open. We are still 75 minutes away.
Don't try to make any sense of the postings lately.... this thread has turned into a soup sandwich.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #573
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:00am Aug 4, 2009 1:00am
hey grant, ive been lookinf over the strat u use, and I have kind of combined it with Feds.

I was thinking, when you get +25 pips then you move ur SL to BE. I thought why don't you open 2 trades both SL at 25, then when you hit ur +25 sell 1 for a guarenteed profit and change SL to BE and look for your 50.

If you had done that last month, u would of turned your 10 BE into 250 pips and ur 9TP at 50, could of got another 25 per trade if you had 2 trades open which would be another 225. Subtract ur 3 loses at 25 each so thats an extra profit of 400 pips!

It will means ur Reward/Risk isn't 2/1 but lower 1/2 and possibly 2/3 (I think) but you would make a better profit. Just a thought
  • #574
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:10am Aug 4, 2009 1:10am
Yes I think there is a fundamental error in the original description of the strategy.

4 - 7 GMT is indeed 5 - 8 BST. But mentioning GMT and BST confuses the issue in my humble opinion.

Basically we are looking at the three hours leading to the London open.

But the thread starter uses the 30 minute chart and includes the last candle of the three hour period. This means that any trades are set 30 minutes after the London open (as billbs pointed out early on). The box is effectively 5 am - 8.30 am.

My back testing shows this to be absolutely crucial. Take another look at yesterday's open!
Gone to a better place
  • #575
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:13am Aug 4, 2009 1:13am
Quoting smikester
Yes I think there is a fundamental error in the original description of the strategy.

4 - 7 GMT is indeed 5 - 8 BST. But mentioning GMT and BST confuses the issue in my humble opinion.

Basically we are looking at the three hours leading to the London open.

But the thread starter uses the 30 minute chart and includes the last candle of the three hour period. This means that any trades are set 30 minutes after the London open (as billbs pointed out early on). The box is effectively 5 am - 8.30 am.

My back testing shows this to be absolutely...
We were using a box 2GMT to 5GMT to catch the early moves and used a buffer of 7 which fed suggested, now with the idea from grant i think its a box from 3GMT to 5GMT... am I right with that grant?
  • #576
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:18am Aug 4, 2009 1:18am
Quoting wawarulez
We were using a box 2GMT to 5GMT to catch the early moves and used a buffer of 7 which fed suggested, now with the idea from grant i think its a box from 3GMT to 5GMT... am I right with that grant?
I don't want to rain on the parade but that box would have killed you in April. Even with buffers. Trading with the trend would have got you through, though. I understand the problems our friends in the USA and Canada have with the original strategy but if you are going to go live you need to thoroughly back test something which is, effectively, a completely different system.
Gone to a better place
  • #577
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:22am Aug 4, 2009 1:22am
yeah, that is what we are discussing right now on this forum. Only trade when the trend is with you a couple of pages back grant has posted his results on this, have u read it?
  • #578
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:27am Aug 4, 2009 1:27am
Another thing you need to do is see this as a break out strategy. What is breaking out? The London open is breaking out. London opens at 8 am UK time. Forget BST and GMT. London opens 8am UK time summer or winter.

If you want to draw an arbitrary box around 3 hours that suit your trading habits and trade that break out then so be it. But the original strategy trades the London break out. Look at yesterday. Look again. 400 pips
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  • #579
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:31am Aug 4, 2009 1:31am
Quoting grant18265
Hey FourX,

no i have done no backtest on this strategy, just the demoing in July....

cheers
OK Grant thanks.
Gone to a better place
  • #580
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:35am Aug 4, 2009 1:35am
Quoting wawarulez
yeah, that is what we are discussing right now on this forum. Only trade when the trend is with you a couple of pages back grant has posted his results on this, have u read it?
It's important to new traders to know what they're reading and what you're discussing is so far off topic it's just confusing and badly researched.

I would really, respectfully, suggest that you start a new thread.
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