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  • #127,481
  • Aug 2, 2009 4:16am Aug 2, 2009 4:16am
The excellent little book on the history of finance, "The Ascent of Money" is a 4-hour film now running on PBS. You can watch the whole thing online:

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/ascentofmone...to-bubbles/44/

Do you know what role Leonardo of Pisa (Fibonacci) played in the history of banking?

Why are banks called banks, anyway?

And who the hell was John Law?

Watch & find out.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #127,482
  • Aug 2, 2009 4:20am Aug 2, 2009 4:20am
Quoting Patience
Yes, true - hope you got over that all right. You are still around so that says something. But have you made 60+% in a day?

If other traders are anything like me, there is a tendency to let your losers run further than your winners
Sure, sure - I got over it, made it all back & then lost half of it again. The cruel hard lessons of effective money management have been driven home once and for all, let us hope.

Around 20% in a day and 50% in a week are my best gains to date.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #127,483
  • Aug 2, 2009 5:25am Aug 2, 2009 5:25am
Just wondering, anyone see the Wolfe Wave on the Eur/Usd 1 Hr Chart? Seems to be complete. I think we are coming back down guys?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #127,484
  • Aug 2, 2009 5:29am Aug 2, 2009 5:29am
Quoting Michigan120
Just wondering, anyone see the Wolfe Wave on the Eur/Usd 1 Hr Chart? Seems to be complete. I think we are coming back down guys?

This is interesting stuff and I looked into WW a couple years ago and abandoned it,
primarily because I didn't want to take on as a study yet another subjective form of analysis
(EW uses up alot of brain power as it is) and also because sometimes I get lazy.

Add some more to this, please. How do you know (or why do you suspect) that the wave is finished at 14280 ?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1249208563
  • #127,485
  • Aug 2, 2009 5:38am Aug 2, 2009 5:38am
Quoting toshi
This is interesting stuff and I looked into WW a couple years ago and abandoned it,
primarily because I didn't want to take on as a study yet another subjective form of analysis
(EW uses up alot of brain power as it is) and also because sometimes I get lazy.

Add some more to this, please. How do you know (or why do you suspect) that the wave is finished at 14280 ?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1249208563
I guess Monday's PA will give us the answer, but (once you have a No 5) price needs to go up and through the white line (drawn from No 1 to No 4) which it has done.

Plus note that Oil and S&P did not follow the currencies back up on Friday. Makes me think the low is still underway for currencies.

Only PA will tell us for sure
  • #127,486
  • Aug 2, 2009 5:52am Aug 2, 2009 5:52am
Quoting Michigan120
I guess Monday's PA will give us the answer, but (once you have a No 5)
price needs to go up and through the white line (drawn from No 1 to No 4) which it has done.

Plus note that Oil and S&P did not follow the currencies back up on Friday.
Makes me think the low is still underway for currencies.

Only PA will tell us for sure
Ahhhh.. now I get it. So, could that mean a return to the white line?
Or does it project a path below point number 5 ?

Reason I'm overly curious is the prefered EW count I was keeping an eye on
now looks questionable and the alternate hasn't been validated yet.
So the Wolf could be showing something that Elliot is missing.

Have you compared ?
  • #127,487
  • Aug 2, 2009 6:22am Aug 2, 2009 6:22am
Quoting toshi
Ahhhh.. now I get it. So, could that mean a return to the white line?
Or does it project a path below point number 5 ?

Reason I'm overly curious is the prefered EW count I was keeping an eye on
now looks questionable and the alternate hasn't been validated yet.
So the Wolf could be showing something that Elliot is missing.

Have you compared ?
No I don't know enough about EW (would like to learn). Actually I think the wave could continue a bit higher to be complete (and may do on Monday) but I was puzzled by the move back up on the currencies when I was thinking they should still be completing lows first.

I do, however have another (bearish) pattern on the EUR 15 min which is nearly complete (1.4282 - or possibly 1.4307).

Only PA on Monday will give us the answer I guess - but I will be looking for shorts myself.
  • #127,488
  • Aug 2, 2009 6:25am Aug 2, 2009 6:25am
Quoting Michigan120
No I don't know enough about EW (would like to learn). Actually I think the wave could continue a bit higher to be complete (and may do on Monday) but I was puzzled by the move back up on the currencies when I was thinking they should still be completing lows first.

I do, however have another (bearish) pattern on the EUR 15 min which is nearly complete (1.4282 - or possibly 1.4307).

Only PA on Monday will give us the answer I guess - but I will be looking for shorts myself.
Forgot attachment
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  • #127,489
  • Aug 2, 2009 6:30am Aug 2, 2009 6:30am
Know what ? As strong as the close was on friday, as reluctant as 140 was to break,
as bearish as it looked at the bottoms and as bullish near the tops this month,
July '09 was an "inside bar" on the monthly chart.

With exception to a clean break of June's high or low, we ain't going anywhere yet folks.

Maybe the range will shrink more and form a triangle consolidation of sorts....
with another inside bar, smaller (with less range) than the July candle.

How bout it ? Who'd like to see another month of going no where?

It's summer and wouldn't come as a great surprise if it turned out that way.
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  • #127,490
  • Aug 2, 2009 6:43am Aug 2, 2009 6:43am
Quoting Michigan120
No I don't know enough about EW (would like to learn). Actually I think the wave could continue a bit higher to be complete (and may do on Monday) but I was puzzled by the move back up on the currencies when I was thinking they should still be completing lows first.

I do, however have another (bearish) pattern on the EUR 15 min which is nearly complete (1.4282 - or possibly 1.4307).

Only PA on Monday will give us the answer I guess - but I will be looking for shorts myself.

All good stuff. Thanks for taking time. I see those dancing bears too.
How high up the tree they'll likely climb before falling down is what I'm pondering.

Dig the harmonic pattern stuff too. More good stuff. Hope you'll stick around this week. Cheers !
  • #127,491
  • Aug 2, 2009 6:54am Aug 2, 2009 6:54am
i submitted my views via story over at

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=187424

do take a look...
  • #127,492
  • Aug 2, 2009 7:36am Aug 2, 2009 7:36am
Just thought I would throw this chart out there. We have bearish hidden divergence on weekly and monthly charts (lower high on price but higher high on indicator).

The monthly low for June was 78.33. The monthly low for July was 78.22 but the monthly candle closed at 78.30 so it closed lower than the lowest low for June which I think is a tad important.

Having been a Friday and end-of-month with Summertime volumes can make one question the move though.

The fact that the ECB hasn't been verbally intervening yet (well not that I've seen) is also important.

Good trades to all.

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May I also quote Hellkkas post (hope he doesn't mind). His chart is way more technical than mine

Quoting hellkkas
Attachment

Lets see what happen..

To down:
5 Wave in progress.. (76.10)
Break major support.. (78.30)
Break triple bottom.. (78.30)

To up:
Test 50% of the trend.. +/- (83.00)
Major support hold.. (78.30)
Triple bottom hold.. (78.30)

Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #127,493
  • Aug 2, 2009 7:42am Aug 2, 2009 7:42am
bullish or bearish?


let the market give this answer
  • #127,494
  • Aug 2, 2009 8:47am Aug 2, 2009 8:47am
Hi Simon,

Now that you have decided to hang around on this thread, first of all welcome and secondly, do know that this fellow is one of the less vitriolic ones. There is in fact another one that is the most vitriolic and pissed up poster I have come across. I guess it is just pure hate that drives "it" but just chose to ignore them. For every self-righteous cop out here there are many more better traders.

As the other guy said, just get used to this crap-I ignore it. I dont really blame them either, without any life whatsoever, being a cop on FF is what cuts for them-just psychotic

With a seasoned and reasonable voice like yours it is going to be a refreshing change here on this thread.


Quoting DrSimon
Hey cobra - sticking my neck out here with just 3 posts and no V against your thousands and 10+V, but just a word of friendly advice, young fella..

It is very unwise in life to go around throwing your weight around and accusing other people of dishonesty without very good evidence. You will very rapidly lose respect and show yourself up as a d**khead.

I have looked into TudorGirls posts on the C4 thread, and I can say as a scientist with 40+ years experience, that that kid knows what she is talking about. I, for one, am INTERESTED.

A respected...
Its all in the mind.
  • #127,495
  • Aug 2, 2009 8:51am Aug 2, 2009 8:51am
Quoting 5abi
Hi Simon,

Now that you have decided to hang around on this thread, first of all welcome and secondly, do know that this fellow is one of the less vitriolic ones. There is in fact another one that is the most vitriolic and pissed up poster I have come across. I guess it is just pure hate that drives "it" but just chose to ignore them. For every self-righteous cop out here there are many more better traders.

As the other guy said, just get used to this crap-I ignore it. I dont really blame them either, without any life whatsoever, being a...
Thanks, mate. I appreciate that!

To business - perhaps my last question got lost in the noise but I am going live after 12-18 months demo on Monday. Just that huge spike up of EU and GU etc Friday threw me.

Do you recommend waiting a while until later on Monday to see if it is permanent or just a spike that will correct?

Regards
  • #127,496
  • Aug 2, 2009 8:54am Aug 2, 2009 8:54am
Quoting kjellik74
Anyone else here that think EU will go through the roof today?
I must admit, all friday morning my chart was telling me to look for a short and my gut was telling me to sit it out. Im glad I listen to my gut whenever Im that conflicted, hats off to all the bulls. Lets see what this week brings
cheers
  • #127,497
  • Aug 2, 2009 8:55am Aug 2, 2009 8:55am
I would not really be long on GU at these levels, but I will wait for it to come down and then buy it.

A safer short right tonight will be GBP-YEN, here is the post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=154013

Reason? Well, weekly s/r, fibo confluence yada yada. I see it on the H4.

You make the call.



Quoting DrSimon
OK guys, I guess I've been around long enough not to ask whether the chart will go up or down - BUT I CAN CONFIDENTLY PREDICT that it will move towards the RIGHT!!!

But that 200 pip spike up on GU etc at 1400 Friday foxed me. OK, so the recession is "worse in the US than anyone expected". OMG! Really!! You don't say!!

Some advice please from the experienced folk here -- is it best to avoid getting in until later on Monday when we can see if this is a blip or a permanent feature?

I have seen huge spikes after Red News events, only for the...
Its all in the mind.
  • #127,498
  • Aug 2, 2009 9:01am Aug 2, 2009 9:01am
As I just said, it will ease up. But how much remains to be see. I am not bothered at this moment, because I am not buying this at this price. Perhaps a short but the Asian open will show that in first few hours.

Also, regarding you demo plans, everyone knows what is best for them, but I suggest a demo for 2-3 months only-it gives you basic education like what button to push, how to use charts and functions. BUt after that it is better if you switch to a small real account. Real money is a psychological challenge, and now a days they allow sub-100 dollar accounts. I am sure the NFA or something is going to chnage that, so why not make hay while sun shines etc, cuz if you are gonna blow a real account, then it is better to blow a 100 dollar mini than a 20K real standard. Just MHO.

Quoting DrSimon
Thanks, mate. I appreciate that!

To business - perhaps my last question got lost in the noise but I am going live after 12-18 months demo on Monday. Just that huge spike up of EU and GU etc Friday threw me.

Do you recommend waiting a while until later on Monday to see if it is permanent or just a spike that will correct?

Regards
Its all in the mind.
  • #127,499
  • Aug 2, 2009 9:09am Aug 2, 2009 9:09am
Quoting 5abi
As I just said, it will ease up. But how much remains to be see. I am not bothered at this moment, because I am not buying this at this price. Perhaps a short but the Asian open will show that in first few hours.

Also, regarding you demo plans, everyone knows what is best for them, but I suggest a demo for 2-3 months only-it gives you basic education like what button to push, how to use charts and functions. BUt after that it is better if you switch to a small real account. Real money is a psychological challenge, and now a days they allow sub-100...
Thanks, mate. Really appreciate your feedback. Have actually got a funded up £4K account but going to start with 0.1 lot to dip a toe in the water.

Will watch and wait at the Tokyo even at 2200 (my time) and see what happens.

Regards
  • #127,500
  • Aug 2, 2009 9:10am Aug 2, 2009 9:10am
this sideways chop is a set up to blast off or tank. the longer term up moves have been kinda weak, however the intraday up moves have been very bullish, where the downturns have kinda been more controlled (a bullish sign) however the daily action (is bullish - higher highs, higher lows) seems to be rather weak. for now i look for scalps, and keep a short leash on things with tight stops. i have posted some of my scalps and things worked out. but these were 20-30 pip moves - for the long term I think we need to break outta this range to get confirmation. look forward to your feedback on my ramblings. -s

actually the daily is just chop over the last 2 weeks. no trend
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