Trade what you see NOT what you expect

Thanks Mate

Thanks Mate, you too

There are few terminologies for patterns I was not real familiar with. So I have located the file with them and turned them into 2 pictures for us to save.

EO asked if I would post some HTF analysis on the Mistress because I trade it intraday and we all know he is faithful to his woman of choice the Mrs(GU) when it comes to intraday trading. Well most of the time.

Ok note takers get your pencils sharpened if you so choose.

Two weeks ago I posted my Daily chart on post #19305 and below you will see the same chart with one change and that single change was only to extend the up sloping trend line. Now if you read my post I mentioned a key area that I would definitely be looking to short when price got to that area. That area was where the trend lines intersect at 134.80-135.00. Now was it just the fact that those lines intersect there or was there also another reason I might be keying in on that area. If you look on the chart you will see another line that is just as important if not more so and that line is a horizontal S/R(support or resistance) line at 134.77. You may be wondering how did I come up with that line. People if you don't remember anything else always and I repeat always look to the left on your charts. You will see multiple touches of resistance in the previously mentioned area. Now does that mean I am going to put an order in at that exact price. No it doesn't but it gives me a heads up to be looking for PA (Price Action) on a lower time frame in this area. You will see other S/R lines on the chart from 2 weeks ago and this weeks chart will show you how price reacted in those areas in the last 2 weeks. Oh yeah I forgot to mention that I purposely left all the Ma's off the charts to show you the basic S/R set ups you should be marking on your charts on a weekly and daily basis. Okay hopefully you have gone back and reviewed the original chart so here is the new chart 2 weeks later.





As you can see a short in the area I originally mentioned 2 weeks ago would have played out for some nice pips and I hope some of you benefited from that 1st chart. You should also notice that the up sloping trend line held several times and was good for a few more shorts. Also note the S/R areas and how price reacted in those areas.

Now the next installment of this lengthy novel will bring us down to the 4hr chart. I know you guys must be on the edge of your seats. For those of you who may be taking notes this would be a good time to resharpen your pencils.

Now that you have resharpened your pencils and maybe even concocted the beverage of your choice and some popcorn we can get on with this thrilling edge of your seat novel.

The next thing on my list of things to do is transfer all the S/R lines from my Daily chart down to my 4 hr chart and add others that I may deem necessary. On the following chart you will see said S/R lines along with an up sloping channel. Take a guess as to which line on my Daily chart that the top line of my channel on the 4 hr chart might resemble. For the person who answers correctly first there may be one of Ken's special prizes in it for you.





You also may notice a little better on this time frame the PA around those S/R areas. At this point in time you should definitely notice the 133.00 area as an area of support going back to the beginning of the month. That tells me (this is a hint) that there is going to be some buyers in this area. How much buying is something that I will try to determine on the lower time frame PA.

Alright by now you have probably figured out that I'm am not a rocket scientist or a novelist but if you take some time to do these simple things then the picture should become a little clearer for you.

Quick review: 1)Plot S/R and trend lines on Daily chart
2)Transfer SR lines down to 4hr chart
3)Always look to the left

From here you should have a good foundation in which to work with. You will look for PA in the areas of S/R on the 1hr and also the 15 min charts for trade entries utilizing the Ma's and specialty trades that the Great One has taught us. Keep in mind that this is what I do and is not necessarily what EO does and that I do the same thing for my charts for the Mrs.

I have know idea why these are loading this way i am not doing anything different.. Sorry you will have to click omn them to read them ...

4 Hr Chart

1 hr chart

15 Min chart

and Finally the End

[quote=PippiNole;2922382]Now that you have resharpened your pencils and maybe even concocted the beverage of your choice and some popcorn we can get on with this thrilling edge of your seat novel.

The next thing on my list of things to do is transfer all the S/R lines from my Daily chart down to my 4 hr chart and add others that I may deem necessary. On the following chart you will see said S/R lines along with an up sloping channel. Take a guess as to which line on my Daily chart the top line of my channel on the 4 hr chart might resemble. For the person who answers correctly first there may be one of Ken's special prizes in it for you.

Attachment



Thanks for the Overview.. Nice Charts (you been working out ) . Hope everyone takes a look at this.. and any others that may show up over the weekend. These are your notes allready written down

Technical hint.. If you start a folder for weekly analysis. You can do the following..

1 Open word pad..
2 Highlight and copy the text that goes with the charts.
3 Paste into the document
4 Click on the charts to open in seperate window click on to expand to biggest size.
5 Copy chart and paste into the word pad document
6 Then save as the Weeklly E/J over view..

Hope this helps the note takers .. If you can't do it ask a 10 year old. LOL

Now come on. Tell the truth. Who helped you put those charts up? I know you didn't do it on your own because you're lucky if you can find your computer's power switch without referring to the user's manual 2 or 3 times.


Thanks for putting in the time and effort (between cocktails) to post your analysis.

Macc

Rant away Ken, rant away. Your rants have been keeping me on the straight and narrow since joining the thread.

Your efforts and presentation are much, much appreciated.

Macc

P.S - Have you applied for copyright against your "PPA" trading term yet? You know EO will take it for his own if you're not quick

... just pull out usd/cad chart...

Yeah I did and that seems to correlate to GBPCAD - maybe they both gonna turn.

Anyone knows any pairs that follow closely but the 1's got even a 1minute delay ??

I lost the users manual but I had a 10 year old neighbors kid find the switch for me.

Good Morning: Everyone ,, Hope your all relaxing getting ready for the next battle.. Raining Here in sunny Key West. Hope it quits Might wonder down to the battle of the bars at Schooner Wharf Bar . To watch the bartenders battle it out for bragging rights.. actually might be more fun in the rain...

I was having a bike ride this am and had some randomness flowing threw my empty head and thought I would post some of the thoughts.

I know with the thread and all the empasizes I have given to the short term trading with all the post at the begining of the thread. That maybe some more time given to the MAJOR Part of ANY successfull trading strategy wouldn't hurt. That being where is price on the higher time charts..

If you painfully read my previous posts ( still sorry for the way that came out). You can tell the benfits for using the smaller time frames for better entries with less risk resulting in a potential for higher profits.

Let us say you entered at a resistance area and it goes against you having risked a small amount because your stop was a lot smaller than if you had waited for confirmation on a higher time frame. As we saw in the previous post.. On the 15 min stop was around 20, 1hr. 60 , 4 hr over 150. You may not agree and say I would never have a stop that large I am just going by the rules for the pattern that was present.

So going off a 15 min entry you could POSSIBLLY try 7 trades for the price of 1. Also your risk is less.

But how and why do we take the trades earlier than most.. A leap of faith it isn't . It is in the KNOWING. Ever here the saying Knowledge is power in trading it is everything.

Because if you look at almost any S/R line off a 1 hr or 4 hr chart. It is pretty obvious that price at the least did turned back for a bit. Think about what happens when price approaches those areas. 2 things happen..

1. You have the group that has been in the trade looking to take profit at this area because as we KNOW. This would be our profit target also if we are in the trade in that direction. We maybe in the trade.

2. We have the otherside of every trade the ones waiting to go the opposite direction because this is their entry area they have been waiting to be hit.

So KNOWING this information. What should be our thought process.
First we should know how strong a area this is. How you say? We look at our higher time frame charts . The more times it has turned (In either direction the stronger it is ) Also we should KNOW how far up the food chain it goes.. glance at all your charts as high as you want .. But dailly is very important..

The higher you you go the more traders you are including in your analysis. Because every time frame has it's group. The higher you see this as a major area the better and the lower your risk is.

This is the reasoning behind some of the trades that you see people just what you think as jumping in. They have already identified these areas and have them plotted ( marked on their charts).

Also don't forget that we also look for trendlines and whatever other analysis you favor such as fib levels.. For every major trading idea this just adds another group to confirm and strengthen the trade. Again lowering your risk.

If you take a look at your dailly GBP chart you see if you had entered back in March and now be up over 3000 pips. But if you never looked at your dailly chart you would not have known that was the bottom. The weekly confirms that it was..

So we now KNOW having done a bit of looking around that we have a weak, strong or the strongest level based of what we have seen with our PPA (Previous Price Action ). I keep highlighting KNOW because we are not guessing we have historical data to look at . There is nothing hidden and as EO said the other day there isn't any hidden agenda to seperate our few dollar from us. It does not serve the brokers to have us fail they make money when we trade period.

We can do most of our anaysis during none trading hours when we are less stressed over the weekend. Pick your areas. Then if you have a problem actually looking at higher time frame charts as you trade. Transfer them to the time frame chart you do take your trades off..

You can color code them as to their importance Green could mean it is possible it may keep going. Yellow Caution be ready to stop , Red it is going to hit a wall.

So we know we have a RED strongest area. We even had a alarm set to alert us to this area. We get a alert by instant message or our bell goes off. We Get to our computer and see it is at our area we have predetermined. We take the trade the opposite direction no signal. We do wait and try and get in as far into the wick as we can. You say what wick ? The wick is the wicks off our PPA (Previous Price Action) When we see it start to turn this is our signal to enter with the lowest risk possible . We can now place our stop just the other side of the area and have less risk.

We also KNOW from our pretrade work the price is at the least going to bounce here . There is going to be some profits taken and some positions enetered. This is what makes EO's style of trading great. Since we didn't wait for all the patterns to develop or a indicator to change directions or whatever. We are in the trade as high as we can be.

We have less risk going into it. But it gets better in a very short time your risk actually goes away. Lets look back to the previous posts..

On the 15 min entry we have already booked some profit and moved our stop to BE or +2. Making this a profitable trade PERIOD. Before we could have even entered on the 1 Hr. chart. Same off the 1 hr before you would have entered on the 4 hr. You would have been as EO says Covered.

Also you hear said "I reversed here" same reasoning they were in the trade. KNEW it was a red major area and took the opposite position. look at your charts see the wicks on the higher time frames at every S/R area . This is your chance to get into risk free trades. if you can't jump on faith in your analysis then start looking for the 15 min triggers so well discussed earlier. But it is key to start getting into the right trades as early as possible to get covered and protect your cash. Especially during the summer doldrums.


Boy what a speech sorry guys.. Ken

If you don't have a alarm on your platform you can get this one free at FXALERT.COM. Once you set it up they will send you a text message when your preset price is hit .

It is right behind the bottle of Crown ...

Hi Ken,

My first post on this thread. Love the thread and that's a great post you have there. I've been trading the 1H & 4H for the most part using daily/weekly for strong S/R and 4H for weaker ones. Trying to learn the 15M for the obvious reasons this thread is all about.

For getting in earlier, would it be a good idea to place PO's at the strong S/R levels say around one of the higher previous wicks there?

Thanks everyone! Great thread and I'm on page 51 having started this weekend.... All the MA's in place.

Chris