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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #39,581
  • Edited 12:48pm Jul 31, 2009 11:27am | Edited 12:48pm
Quoting Jigsaw
Thanks Aaron,

Enjoyed reading that



Hey Greg,

What are the MA's and how do you use them ? (If you don't mind explaining))

Thomas
I don't use them much on longer term trades...I wasn't even paying attention to them....But they are fib MA's 34, 55, 89, 144 & 233 EMA's
On lower TF's , when they are all lined up in order and begin to fan out (separation), look for pull backs into the midst of the EMA's, When PA gives you the signal, pull the trigger...in the direction of the EMA trend.

I'm so glad that I found this thread...It has renewed my interest in S&R's and Candlestick Patterns. There are many here who seem to be really successful traders.

With this thread and the J16 strategy, I believe (actually I know) it will only make my own strategy that much stronger....Fibo retraces, confluence (this is a great revelation to me), PA, PPZ's along with price patterns and my trusty fibo ema's, it's only a matter of time and practice to build my account nicely.

All I have to do is a) Stay on thread (I know, I get off topic...I have British blood in me...always looking for a good battle) b) practice and c) Stay with this thread and in the future join the PF.

Thanks J16 and all the vets and newbies on this thread for your posts!

GregB
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  • #39,582
  • Jul 31, 2009 11:41am Jul 31, 2009 11:41am
O a questionnaire I am game for it

quote=JamesL;2919079]Thanks very much indeed. the thread is clearly still very active!

I'm very tempted to join up now to save time going through 2700 pages, though I feel I would be missing something. I've now scanned 500 pages so far, and made some notes.

It is very likely I will join up. It's just a matter of when. And then I'll throw myself into it - i do tend to concentrate my efforts on one thing at a time, and get very enthusiastic!

May I put a few queries as they pop into my head?



Are most of you members of the PF too?

I am a member

How many here are in or near my timezone (UK)?

Do many of you trade the London FX session?

I trade mainly from 3am - 11am est the bulk of the european/US session

Are many of you full-time traders here?

I trade full time but do not make my full income off trading. I am still very much in the building phase(25 years old, by 30 I hope to be in a very very different place), even still I doubt I would ever trade only full time to not have any pressure

Is most of the daily trading discussion done on there, rather than here? With the general chit chat, social stuff and comaraderie here?

A great deal of trading is done here, but a lot of it is helping the new traders build there confidence and get a handle on the basics. This "free" thread offers more then any other thread I have seen, and some never need more and that was always James intention

I've scanned this thread to around the end of October 2007 - has there been much detailed discussion of the methods since then? I notice James had not been able to contribute a great deal then but said he should be able to later and had great plans for the thread? More of the method etc

What has happened to some of the old posters? I recognise mbqb11 very well (fabulous posts, Mike). What happened to other good posters, such as The-Wizard, and others?

Since things blew up it is hard to post as much here as James would want I am sure. My inbox is flooded daily then + answering PMs and posts, it becomes quite a task. Lucky for me I don't have kids and a wife like James so I can dedicate more time here which I greatly enjoy doing too. Except weekends I tend to be more MIA

Is the method discussed here mostly trading pins, sometimes inside or outside bars and ocasionally the double high/low with a low/high close at places which coincide with support/resistance levels, fibs, trendlines, Moving averages when the price is moving/swinging around in uncluttered areas?

The basics yes, confluence, + price bars. Other ways to tackle it, touch trading(raczekfx). Different styles and what not. But on this thread yes very much the basics of price bars at good locations.

Currency pairs seem to be drifting sideways on the larger timeframes this year - are you all trading something else till they start moving better?
There is always something out there moving in currencies. But if all you choose to watch are the higher timeframes it is well worth it to expand to other instruments.

Do you trade mostly currencies, or do you trade other instruments too. It seems that some posters, in the pages I have looked at so far (eg james16 and The_Wizard), have actually or had a preference for trading commodities or other non-fx securities, finding them easier. What are the easiest instruments to make a profit from using this method? And, I suppose, at this time following the crunch?

There is no "easiest" to make profit from. Price action is very very universal. You can give me a chart, cover up the instrument and I can trade it. Some people just enjoy other markets. James is a huge mini dow fan. Once you learn to read a chart though, the rest is just little changes.

Do you specialise in trading one or two securities, perhaps with multiple strategies, or do yiu trade a larger range of instrument, perhaps looking for ideal setups with a single strategy?

I trade a large range of pairs ~25/gold/silver and trade the same methods. Larger timeframe trading(daily weekly), then I have my intraday, and then my intraday trading. Finally I have one more mechanical method. The above all based on Price Action.

What kind of strategy do you find works for you with the price action discussed here?
Whichever works for the individual. Some people take what they know, and add Price action. It can make nearly any decent system much better.

Do you all find the higher timeframes (eg 4 and over) less risky and more rewarding than lower ones where the stop losses can be tighter? At what level eg 30 min timeframe do you find the signals less reliable?

All timeframes can be reliable, the problem lies in the trader. Learning to be discipline by starting on the 1hr is a deadly combination(see every trader in the world almost). James suggests(and us old timers agree) to start on the daily weekly. It will train the eye better, let the trader have more time to make decisions and really learn the material. As you get good it is much easier to move down in timeframes to make quicker decisions.

Is perhaps the emphasis on trading only higher timeframes to get reliable signals a bit overdone if you can trade the most active session eg London, where there may be more ticks in a bar?

Again a chart is a chart. Doesn't really matter, see above.

Do you use a variety of different timeframes eg TF to set a favoured direction, TF to find support/resistance levels, another for entry, another to manage the trade, another to exit, etc?

Personally no. I trade off the timeframe I am looking at. Depending on the exit I use I may or may not drop down a timeframe. Or sometimes a trade turns into a larger timeframe trade. But always KISS(keep it simple stupid).

Do you trade retracements, reversals etc or range breakouts eg when an fx session opens?
Whatever lines up with my methods. Session open really doesn't mean much to me.

What about other kinds of price action, such as trading 1-2-3 reversals?

I trade breakout and pullbacks. Same thing basically

I think I noticed in the early posts, that there was an emphasis on waiting for only trading perfect setups... it is said to be very easy to lose money trading so is this still the case with the methods used here?
Yep the A+++ setups are as reliable as it gets

Do yiu find you can trade larger positions on perfect setups, or do minimum amounts on less-than-perfect setups on lower timeframes do the trick too?
I keep my risk the same as the market can still do what it wants. I trade 1% per trade %R style.

Don't you also find that you gain much more practice and experience if you trade on the lower timeframes? Doesn't it take a heck of a long time to gain experience trading perfect setups on the higher timeframes, especially if trading a narrow range of securities eg only currency pairs?

That is a false concept. We think practice makes perfect, but to trade more doesn't mean to learn more. In fact we often learn the most by NOT trading, and being discipline to sit on our hands for days maybe weeks at a time. Weird I know, but believe me true.

Also, thos with low funded a/cs - is it better to id a setup then drop down to a lower timeframe, and trade larger position with a smaller stop loss?

This is why James says most get killed. Because they are underfunded and that 50$ your up means nothing, you get greedy and boom stopped out again. I would say firstly move to demo till you prove you can do this(3 months consecutively profit). Then try to trade that account as if it was a larger account, not by adding risk, just by thought. Someone traded a demo account size a large one in tandem so they could see the actual $ figures. You have to keep a long term outlook though.





Thanks a million, folks

edit - one other thing - what is a "Lifetime Member", and who's lifetime does it refer to? ..Does the forum web site disappear in the event that any key individuals disappear? Thanks again,.
Hopefully it is a long time. I don't want to put words into Jim's mouth but all the key individuals aren't going anywhere as long as the site remains for the reasons it was started.
[/quote]
  • #39,583
  • Jul 31, 2009 11:51am Jul 31, 2009 11:51am
Quoting 2mas
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=39111
Anyone who pays attention to Mike's posts should be in from ard 1.0040 .....Already 130+ pips in green and the possibility of a weekly PB closing is very high. We'll see, it's going to be quite interesting (FREE TRADE) if it does....
Good to see you my man!

Great job

Mike
  • #39,584
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:15pm Jul 31, 2009 12:15pm
exhaustion on friday arvo..

right @ weekly ppz..

thats it for me.. now
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  • #39,585
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:47pm Jul 31, 2009 12:47pm
Quoting bidie
Let me count the ways-

Guess I need to start using stop losses on my demo accounts-

What a crap shoot out the rear-

Anyways- pm me if anyone wants to know about a junior gold explorer that I have invested in personally-
Stop losses =

Quoting rustyjeff
exhaustion on friday arvo..

right @ weekly ppz..

thats it for me.. now
Niiice Jeff !

Quoting batesmotel
I don't use them much on longer term trades...I wasn't even paying attention to them....But they are fib MA's 34, 55, 89, 144 & 233 EMA's
On lower TF's , when they are all lined up in order and begin to fan out (separation), look for pull backs into the midst of the EMA's, When PA gives you the signal, pull the trigger...in the direction of the EMA trend.

GregB
I see, have you checked eohaters thread ? That guy sure knows how to trade ema's. I have personally always found the 1HR 62ema on GBPUSD holds a lot of weight (for whatever reason)

Quoting StoragePro
There has been some banter lately about R:R, math, exits, high probability trades, etc... Not that some of that stuff does not matter, but what is more important are the high probability trades and managing them right.

Here is a quick trade to consider. GBPUSD this morning on a 2 bar PB. Top of an established channel. See the bar lows clustered in the little rectangle?

Price hit that area perfectly and reversed hard. If it had gotten thru that area I would have been very surprised. This was a slam dunk, and the kind of...
Really enjoyed this post SP. I must admit I am not the greatest guy in ranges . . . Gotta step my game up :nerd:
  • #39,586
  • Jul 31, 2009 4:56pm Jul 31, 2009 4:56pm
Quoting StoragePro
Say what you want about R:R and fancy mathematical footwork. I'll stick with the simple stuff.

If one doesn't look at R/R, one is doomed to fairure over the long term. There are times when the market may reverse unexpectedly through intervention, news, etc. or simply one's own error or fatigue. Many small wins against a major loss is inexcusable, but all too common.

Look at that trade sculpted here yesterday by several contributors on USDCHF - the setups don't get much better - either a 4 hour or a daily. There was very little to risk, but the amount of space prompted great reward. Yet some here hesitated, citing a variety of conceivable roadblocks. A good R/R allows one to pull the trigger without reservation.
  • #39,587
  • Jul 31, 2009 5:02pm Jul 31, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting Alexandra
If one doesn't look at R/R, one is doomed to fairure over the long term. There are times when the market may reverse unexpectedly through intervention or news, etc....
I do find this topic funny cause anyone whos been trading for a long time knows opinions are like methods there are too many to count. RR means nothing to me sometimes I get a great 3r sometimes much less then half. It is taking what the market offers and understaning your method period. No ome should kid themseleves that it is all or one. At least no one who has been making money. Also just cause a trade moves three times ones risk and the trader that goes for 3r each time got it and the trader who only got half a percent out. Neither is more rightt or wrong if both make money on the long haul period.

Have a good weekend all
mike
  • #39,588
  • Jul 31, 2009 5:10pm Jul 31, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting joelcf
No he wont.

This is entirely based on the shape of the return distribition of the instrument - mainly, its standard deviation, skewness and any kurtosis present.

Random walk models are based on a binomial distribution. It isnt a triangle.
Quoting kk007
I can tell you it would be 75% without going to distribution/complicated calculation.
I enjoyed the conversation you guys had, joelck and kk007. Well the small parts I could understand. lol

I liked that line from joel that josh pointed out . ....Your problem here is that you are setting your TP based on your risk - making it a meaningless, arbitary number. You should be setting your TP based on where you think price will run into impediments. Doesn't that make sense.


I have one question for joelcf . . . . . . . . . . . . . Merlin? is that you?



Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #39,589
  • Jul 31, 2009 5:35pm Jul 31, 2009 5:35pm
Quoting jarroo
...Your problem here is that you are setting your TP based on your risk - making it a meaningless, arbitary number. You should be setting your TP based on where you think price will run into impediments. Doesn't that make sense.


I have one question for joelcf . . . . . . . . . . . . . Merlin? is that you?



Jim
Merlin....
Oooo... wouldn't we wish it was so. {psst... don't report him for multiple ID's}

In regards to the BOLD statement...
I do agree;
{Waiver:
I am not a 100% J16 Trader but there are more than a few things we seem to agree on.}


1) {I mean the FIRST thing you should think about BEFORE pulling the Trigger is...}
"How Bad Can It Get in this TF?"
or
"Do I have a Total Risk Value in mind?"

If you can't answer that, Lock your mouse in the 'Safe Box' & go play with a friend.

BMc.
  • #39,590
  • Jul 31, 2009 5:58pm Jul 31, 2009 5:58pm
Quoting phillipchris
I been following ur thread on babypips ill follow it here too
Quoting BryanGil
Yea should i start at beginning of thread or recent pages?
...Troll owned. Duel user names detector strikes again!
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #39,591
  • Jul 31, 2009 6:07pm Jul 31, 2009 6:07pm
Quoting bundyraider
...Troll owned. Duel user names detector strikes again!

Non American or barely educated..........take your pick.
  • #39,592
  • Edited 8:28pm Jul 31, 2009 7:52pm | Edited 8:28pm
Here is a pic of a lovely weekly pin bar.

Take note it is John AKA johnnykanoo who found it. He can't upload a pic so I did and added explanations.

Good eye Johnny
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  • #39,593
  • Edited 9:39pm Jul 31, 2009 8:50pm | Edited 9:39pm
Hey, I have just noticed a weekly pivot point at 0.980417, that will be 30-40 pips below the nose, so IMO opinion it will pay off waiting to see if it will break as well before entering the trade. That line can make trouble.

Ben
  • #39,594
  • Jul 31, 2009 9:16pm Jul 31, 2009 9:16pm
R:R

Which R is the R you care about most.

Pro's, traders who have learned to be profitable over a significant time frame (not merely a year or two) have learned that risk control is the prime thing.

Rewards follow without thought.(OK - almost).

Hope everyone had a good week. We had some good opportunities.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #39,595
  • Jul 31, 2009 9:33pm Jul 31, 2009 9:33pm
Quoting bundyraider
...Troll owned. Duel user names detector strikes again!
WOW Buddy!
It's slippery out there.
Go up against FF and you are taking on the entire membership. We can cause some $hit on other sites that might last a while but, not here at ye Ole FF. (:-{) = (Old, baldING, Moustached Fart)
  • #39,596
  • Edited 9:53pm Jul 31, 2009 9:38pm | Edited 9:53pm
Quoting StoragePro
R:R

Which R is the R you care about most.

Pro's, traders who have learned to be profitable over a significant time frame (not merely a year or two) have learned that risk control is the prime thing.

Rewards follow without thought.(OK - almost).

Hope everyone had a good week. We had some good opportunities.

Yes, I absolutely agree with you. I just saw that traffic and thought to myself "there is a good chance for trouble in that area, so I might look the closest place to move my stop or exit".

Personally I will place my stop a few pips above the end of the nose. That will be also above the trend line and the 150ema.
Hope that make sense? 62.8 of the candle and the left eye are way under the trend line.

PS- of course I won't risk more than 2%-3% of my account on one trade.

Thanks for your comment.

Ben
  • #39,597
  • Edited 10:16pm Jul 31, 2009 9:58pm | Edited 10:16pm
Quoting joelcf
Your problem here is that you are setting your TP based on your risk - making it a meaningless, arbitary number. You should be setting your TP based on where you think price will run into impediments.
I have clarified that this is not my problem, and I am a supporter of taking profit at a key level (PPZ). I have considered reward, but not the way he said.

Quoting kk007
Let me clarify about my TP setting, if the next trouble area (PPZ) is too close to the inward end of the pinbar, in compared to the length of the pinbar, I will see the risk is high in compared to the reward. In this case, I will give up the opportunity, so I don't set my TP out of air.
I would think everyone need to find a profitable R:R/winrate combination that they are comfortable with. Mike has found his. And you?
  • #39,598
  • Jul 31, 2009 10:41pm Jul 31, 2009 10:41pm
There is a pin bar forming on the weekly EURCAD.
There is confluence of three fib rets.
There is also a nice bounce from the 365ema which is good in acting as a strong SR in swings.
Ohh and a mini PPZ as well.

The thing that bothers me is the lower highs and lower lows the price makes...in other words trading against the trend. But most likely it's time for a reserve, so I can take the train to the next lower low.
I am still confided that the 365ema will give it a nice bounce.
What do you think?
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  • #39,599
  • Jul 31, 2009 10:45pm Jul 31, 2009 10:45pm
Quoting Bemac
WOW Buddy!
It's slippery out there.
Go up against FF and you are taking on the entire membership. We can cause some $hit on other sites that might last a while but, not here at ye Ole FF.
(:-{) = (Old, baldING, Moustached Fart)
I see him... lol. Never seen that one before.

You're right. FF's strongest asset is it's moderators and everyones support of them(well most peoples support. lol). From Merlin, to Scott and the gang, to Twee and all the way through. It's always has been very well done.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #39,600
  • Jul 31, 2009 10:55pm Jul 31, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting benji533
There is a pin bar forming on the weekly EURCAD.
There is confluence of three fib rets.
There is also a nice bounce from the 365ema which is good in acting as a strong SR in swings.
Ohh and a mini PPZ as well.

The thing that bothers me is the lower highs and lower lows the price makes...in other words trading against the trend. But most likely it's time for a reserve, so I can take the train to the next lower low.
I am still confided that the 365ema will give it a nice bounce.
What do you think?
To be honest, do you know what I think would have made this a goer for me? ....If that bar had closed a lot higher.
(Maybe your feed hasn't closed the weekly bar yet, though. )

I'm uncomfortable taking a pin who's close is low in relation to all those confluences you have mentioned.
But then again, on the other hand a break of your pin's high would be promising, as the high is on the right side of those confluences for sure.

To sum it up. I think the chances of it breaking are low (reading the chart), but if it does it's a good thing, with enough room to get into profit at the least.

There be my thoughts.

(Bring up a weekly close (Line chart) to see where I think the first hurdle may be after a break. Previous swing low close. Edit: oops wrong..lol Trusted my picture memory too much! Edit Edit: just above that lone 38.2 line you have.)
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
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