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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #39,541
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:42am Jul 31, 2009 12:42am
Hi Mike,

Thanks!

Yes. Agree. Price movement is not random. Very true, now I understand.
Let me repharse it. If someone enter position randomly with R:R=3:1, he will get 75% profit target hit in the long run, without using any indicator. Also, if someone keep trading R:R=3:1, he will for sure lose if he cannot hit profit target for more than 75%. This is not nonsense. Is it? IMHO. Many other senior members here also talk about R:R from time to time, so I think it is a useful concept.

Since I would have done the same thing, even if it were D1, or just look at the historical chart. Honestly. Reaction or discipline is not an issue for me in these two cases, although I have to admit that I am still learning to manage my mental state during trading. Nevertheless, here, it is more about picking the good pinbar to trade.

I believe that you did not comment this in hindsight. Perhaps, it is true that I should not have to take this trade, because it is not a A+ pinbar. It may not as good as my last failed pinbar.

cheers,
kk

Quoting mbqb11
Hey K

The higher timeframes serve a few main purposes. The most important IMO is that the decision making process is slowed down. When new traders are trying to tackle the hourly when they don't fully understand the concepts they get hit with loss after loss, which usually leads to impatience lack of discipline which all leads to over trading and improper mgmt of trades just like this. I don't mean to pick on you(surely you know I am trying to help), but my post in the PF was made hours before you made this post and it was exactly the example...
  • #39,542
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:54am Jul 31, 2009 12:54am
Quoting jarroo
Hey oltciter. How did that 8 hour PB on the Gbp/Aud turn out for you?

Last time we spoke it had a nice hard break. Looking at it now, it went right where we thought it would go.
A classic J16 trade.

Although we would like a more definable location and confluences for Pin Bars, i.e. at a Swing Highs/Lows off of a strong PPZ level, Fib retracement, etc., this one proved successful.

Yes, that Pin Bar in green would be the one we would want to look for. .

Guess where that 365 ema was at the time of that PB? Your correct, right on it.

The more supporting confluences the higher the quality of the setup becomes when Price Action finds a great location.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ga8a.gif Size: 27 KB
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #39,543
  • Edited 1:18am Jul 31, 2009 1:03am | Edited 1:18am
Quoting kk007
If someone enter position randomly with R:R=3:1, he will get 75% profit target hit in the long run, without using any indicator.
No he wont.

This is entirely based on the shape of the return distribition of the instrument - mainly, its standard deviation, skewness and any kurtosis present.

Random walk models are based on a binomial distribution. It isnt a triangle.

Look at it simply: does 3x p(1 SD) = p (3 SD) in a normal distribtion? No.

Either you didnt pay enough attention in your quantitative math class, or you have been reading too much into Van Tharp.

(this isnt meant to sound condescending, and if it does I apologise. Without knowing your background, it is hard to know what level of technical detail is appropriate)
(and this is hugely off topic, but anyways.)

Quoting kk007
Also, if someone keep trading R:R=3:1, he will for sure lose if he cannot hit profit target for more than 75%. This is not nonsense. Is it? IMHO.
No, you are entirely right - he will have a negative expected value. But this entire thread is about high probability entries, stops and TP levels - not random entries. And definitely not price moving in a random walk.

Your problem here is that you are setting your TP based on your risk - making it a meaningless, arbitary number. You should be setting your TP based on where you think price will run into impediments.

If price movement after you enter was *truly* random, then yeah - you could set arbitary TPs based on your r:R. But the entire thing Jim and the guys are trying to show you is that it isnt - that you can use previous price action to predict possible price movement. Including where price might stall. Or reverse, take out your stop and lead you to losing your account.

Your issue isnt with discipline or reactions. It is a forrest:trees one.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #39,544
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:04am Jul 31, 2009 1:04am
Quoting diggsnoob
i thought North Finance is FXPro now, no?
yes, I believe so, Sir. i think it happened early this year or last year.
i'm just fascinated that the MT4NF charts still work despite the NorthFinance acquisition.


Quoting jarroo
I love seeing this. It brought my trading to the next level. Period.
I knew that.
To many like u & me, it doesn't sound/look irritatingly monotonously repetitive to see the "James16 This is Critical" getting reposted from time to time. on the contrary, i think it serves as a reaffirmation of what we need to do. it serves to drill in the message into our brain very well.

Quoting jarroo
Wow. Nice charts sChaos.
hahah. Thanks Sir.
i thought those charts would slip under your prying eyes.
your response merely reveals how rarely i post charts.


Quoting joelcf
*EDIT* hehe, what mike said ^^^............
Oh... and countdown to Supreme positing 'this is critical!' in 5...4...3...2...
greetings fellow Asian neighbor...
buzzer beater!!!!!! did i make it, joel?
u expected me to post as if i were an existing ppz near a PA setup. your experience goes beyond trading
btw, kk007 just said he's bookmarked the "james16 Critical" post. good move kk007!
  • #39,545
  • Edited 1:49am Jul 31, 2009 1:04am | Edited 1:49am
Quoting TiaForex
Oops:
THIS IS CRITICAL
Before typing information about Jarroo we MUST LEARN TO:
1. Do our research and establish the facts
2. If we do not do our research we must be prepared for Jarroo to "stop us out"

Once we have done our research and know the facts we have three choices:
1. Tell the truth
2. Make something up
3. Start a new group and take credit for everything, pausing only to call Jarroo a girl.
If we do not do this we have no chance in this business people. Period paragraph.
ROFLMAO!!!!!! every bit of that was funny!
What the?!?!?
i haven't memorized the "James16 THis is CRTICAL" yet & here u go presenting a new mantra: the oven-fresh "Jarroo this is Critical"... what gives? lol
This was too hilarious, so much so that sir6 came out of his lurking cave to make his 8th post. hopefully more posts will come from sir6.
btw, who again called jarroo a girl?

Quoting TiaForex
This is the James16 Chart thread KISS. Where wishes come true.Enjoy
Good fun stuff! was that u, Aaron? to me, it sounded like a pro commentator or newscaster
  • #39,546
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:22am Jul 31, 2009 1:22am
Quoting Cyrus
supreme, i've had a similar annoying problem with 4hour charts in GMT+3.....
I've found this indicator thanks to Hanover.......
I now watch 2 GMT 4hour closes, it helps give added perspective to price action.
good stuff, I'll check this out. David has always been a cool, helpful guy.



Quoting kk007
Hi Mike,
Thanks for you quick response.....
I keep hearing suggestion telling me to demo trade higher timeframe. Nevertheless, I still don't understand what is the difference, as price action usage is the same between H1 and D1 as said by James. I am thinking if the charts in my last two trades were D1, I would have the same failure. It would be great if you can clear my confusion here.
..........
apart from what Sir mbqb11 stated, u can view it this way:
a. H4, D1 & up charts are adding numbers in tens, e.g. 10 + 20 + 50
b. while H1 & below charts are like adding random numbers, e.g. 13 + 27 + 49
Now, which of the two (a. & b.) do u find to be easier to process/assimilate?
No doubt, a. is easier right? u can effectively use addition in both a. & b., but a. is definitely easier on the brain.

H4 & up charts are smoother, less whipsawy than M1 - H1 charts. therefore a trader can process information better &/or uses less brain power to trade H4 & up charts. in the same light as the math analogy above, u can apply j16 method on any timeframes but H4 & up is "easier on the brain". comparatively, H1 & below needs a "lot more brain power" & alertness.
Hope this lessens the foggy air of confusion within you.
  • #39,547
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:50am Jul 31, 2009 1:50am
Quoting jarroo
Hey oltciter. How did that 8 hour PB on the Gbp/Aud turn out for you?

Last time we spoke it had a nice hard break. Looking at it now, it went right where we thought it would go.
A classic J16 trade.

Although we would like a more definable location and confluences for Pin Bars, i.e. at a Swing Highs/Lows off of a strong PPZ level, Fib retracement, etc., this one proved successful.
Like I said! Easy pips!
  • #39,548
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:54am Jul 31, 2009 1:54am
Hi joelcf,

Yes. I've admitted that in the post you have replied that price movement is not random.

Let me clarify about my TP setting, if the next trouble area (PPZ) is too close to the inward end of the pinbar, in compared to the length of the pinbar, I will see the risk is high in compared to the reward. In this case, I will give up the opportunity, so I don't set my TP out of air.

Again, I think it is not a complete reflection of performance, if only success rate is mentioned without talking about the R:R. Both have to be mentioned together.

Finally, about this "If someone enter position randomly with R:R=3:1, he will get 75% profit target hit in the long run, without using any indicator." If it is not 75%, can you tell me what it will be with your quantitative math lessons that you have paid enough attention.

Cheers,
kk

Quoting joelcf
No he wont.

This is entirely based on the shape of the return distribition of the instrument - mainly, its standard deviation, skewness and any kurtosis present.

Random walk models are based on a binomial distribution. It isnt a triangle.

Look at it simply: does 3x p(1 SD) = p (3 SD) in a normal distribtion? No.

Either you didnt pay enough attention in your quantitative math class, or you have been reading too much into Van Tharp.

[i](this isnt meant to sound condescending, and if it does I apologise. Without knowing your background,...
  • #39,549
  • Jul 31, 2009 2:34am Jul 31, 2009 2:34am
Quoting kk007
Let me clarify about my TP setting, if the next trouble area (PPZ) is too close to the inward end of the pinbar, in compared to the length of the pinbar, I will see the risk is high in compared to the reward. In this case, I will give up the opportunity, so I don't set my TP out of air.
And that is exactly how you should trade.

But in this case, we were talking about you ignoring a bunch of bar highs and setting a TP further away to achieve a certain r:R. Which led to what happened, which is what you asked about. And what Mike said.

But feel free to ignore what everyone is telling you.

Quoting kk007
Finally, about this "If someone enter position randomly with R:R=3:1, he will get 75% profit target hit in the long run, without using any indicator." If it is not 75%, can you tell me what it will be with your quantitative math lessons that you have paid enough attention.
risk:Reward ratio doesnt directly affect the outcome like that. Increasing your risk relative to reward (or vice versa) just means that you allow more steps to be taken in the negative direction before you are stopped out.

Even taking 'over the long run' (dumbed down talk for the central limit theorem), it doesnt work like that. If you wanted, you could construct a return distribution, calculate the value of your stop in terms of standard deviations, and then determine how likely it is that you would hit your stop after each bar.

But even then it wouldnt really help, because price moments dont follow a random walk. Returns dont form a normal distribution. Price moment isnt a linear function.

So you would have to account for both of these. Which gets into advanced modelling, the 'drunken walk' theory and brownian motion, Wiener processes, continuous time finance and a hundred other offtopic things I am not going to clog up this thread with on a friday afternoon.

You are just overcomplicating things based on incorrect assumptions that you read somewhere, probably written by someone interested in selling books rather than the actual truth. But there are more than enough words there for you to google if you need to satisfy your curiosity, without dragging this thread even further into the wilderness.

Didnt some guy once say 'This stuff is dirt simple, folks'? Seems like a smart guy. I would listen to him.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #39,550
  • Jul 31, 2009 2:41am Jul 31, 2009 2:41am
I can tell you it would be 75% without going to distribution/complicated calculation.

Why?

The reason is such a random method cannot consistently make money or lose money (ignoring the spread), otherwise someone can make an EA out of it. And 75% is breakeven value.


P.S. Take profit on the top or middle or bottom of a PPZ is quite a discretionary decision.


Quoting joelcf
And that is exactly how you should trade.

But in this case, we were talking about you ignoring a bunch of bar highs and setting a TP further away to achieve a certain r:R. Which led to what happened, which is what you asked about. And what Mike said.

But feel free to ignore what everyone is telling you.



risk:Reward ratio doesnt directly affect the outcome like that. Increasing your risk relative to reward (or vice versa) just means that you allow more steps to be taken in the negative direction before you are stopped out.

Even taking...
  • #39,551
  • Jul 31, 2009 2:54am Jul 31, 2009 2:54am
Quoting kk007
I can tell you it would be 75% without going to distribution/complicated calculation.

Why?

The reason is such a random method cannot consistently make money or lose money (ignoring the spread), otherwise someone can make an EA out of it. And 75% is breakeven value.
Actually, that is just a simplistic view of the CAPM and Efficient Market Hypothesis. And it is an assumption that is required for the model to work, not a result of it. Your reasoning is backwards. And ignores a whole bunch of other assumptions that EMH requires, like normally distributed returns.

Funnily enough, every single investment bank arb desk disagrees with you, given they specialise in riskless profit by exploiting market inefficiencies.

Anyways, I am done with this discussion. Not only is it offtopic, but you clearly know better than everyone else *rolleyes*.

Oh, and it is 6pm and time to go to the pub.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #39,552
  • Jul 31, 2009 3:00am Jul 31, 2009 3:00am
Yes. A simplified assumption, don't want to go too complicated. Even if you do some more complicated modelling/assumption/calculation, the conclusion should be similar. I am also done with this discussion....

Quoting joelcf
Actually, that is just a simplistic view of the CAPM and Efficient Market Hypothesis. And it is an assumption that is required for the model to work, not a result of it. Your reasoning is backwards. And ignores a whole bunch of other assumptions that EMH requires, like normally distributed returns.

Anyways, I am done with this discussion. Not only is it offtopic, but you clearly know better than everyone else. Oh, and it is 6pm and time to go to the pub.
  • #39,553
  • Jul 31, 2009 3:09am Jul 31, 2009 3:09am
I got entries down to a science but MM still eludes me.

My issue is I'm struggling with is it okay to have a R:R or 1:1 or worse on a per trade basis? I plan to hold on to trades for 20 pips and then close half the position, and move stop to B/E.

The only problem I see with this is, if the risk is 70 pips or more, I hit my 20 pips, take partial profit and move the stop to entry. It goes against me and I net 10 pips.. but the R:R is 7:1. Not very comforting.

Am I mistaken that that is a bad thing or is that actually a good thing to at least get some profit out of it? I guess as long as I'm not letting it go 1:2 and then coming back all the way and exiting at 7:1 its alright?
  • #39,554
  • Edited 4:21am Jul 31, 2009 4:05am | Edited 4:21am
Thanks very much indeed. the thread is clearly still very active!

I'm very tempted to join up now to save time going through 2700 pages, though I feel I would be missing something. I've now scanned 500 pages so far, and made some notes.

It is very likely I will join up. It's just a matter of when. And then I'll throw myself into it - i do tend to concentrate my efforts on one thing at a time, and get very enthusiastic!

May I put a few queries as they pop into my head?



Are most of you members of the PF too?

How many here are in or near my timezone (UK)?

Do many of you trade the London FX session?

Are many of you full-time traders here?

Is most of the daily trading discussion done on there, rather than here? With the general chit chat, social stuff and comaraderie here?

I've scanned this thread to around the end of October 2007 - has there been much detailed discussion of the methods since then? I notice James had not been able to contribute a great deal then but said he should be able to later and had great plans for the thread? More of the method etc

What has happened to some of the old posters? I recognise mbqb11 very well (fabulous posts, Mike). What happened to other good posters, such as The-Wizard, and others?

Is the method discussed here mostly trading pins, sometimes inside or outside bars and ocasionally the double high/low with a low/high close at places which coincide with support/resistance levels, fibs, trendlines, Moving averages when the price is moving/swinging around in uncluttered areas?

Currency pairs seem to be drifting sideways on the larger timeframes this year - are you all trading something else till they start moving better?

Do you trade mostly currencies, or do you trade other instruments too. It seems that some posters, in the pages I have looked at so far (eg james16 and The_Wizard), have actually or had a preference for trading commodities or other non-fx securities, finding them easier. What are the easiest instruments to make a profit from using this method? And, I suppose, at this time following the crunch?

Do you specialise in trading one or two securities, perhaps with multiple strategies, or do yiu trade a larger range of instrument, perhaps looking for ideal setups with a single strategy?

What kind of strategy do you find works for you with the price action discussed here?

Do you all find the higher timeframes (eg 4 and over) less risky and more rewarding than lower ones where the stop losses can be tighter? At what level eg 30 min timeframe do you find the signals less reliable?

Is perhaps the emphasis on trading only higher timeframes to get reliable signals a bit overdone if you can trade the most active session eg London, where there may be more ticks in a bar?

Do you use a variety of different timeframes eg TF to set a favoured direction, TF to find support/resistance levels, another for entry, another to manage the trade, another to exit, etc?

Do you trade retracements, reversals etc or range breakouts eg when an fx session opens?

What about other kinds of price action, such as trading 1-2-3 reversals?

I think I noticed in the early posts, that there was an emphasis on waiting for only trading perfect setups... it is said to be very easy to lose money trading so is this still the case with the methods used here?

Do yiu find you can trade larger positions on perfect setups, or do minimum amounts on less-than-perfect setups on lower timeframes do the trick too?

Don't you also find that you gain much more practice and experience if you trade on the lower timeframes? Doesn't it take a heck of a long time to gain experience trading perfect setups on the higher timeframes, especially if trading a narrow range of securities eg only currency pairs?

Also, thos with low funded a/cs - is it better to id a setup then drop down to a lower timeframe, and trade larger position with a smaller stop loss?



Better stop there. Full of questions at first, as always, so sorry about that It's just enthusiasm, really. I do tend to ask a lot of questions when I'm keen. Let me know if that's a problem - I like it straight. .. I know when I ask lost of questions in a shop, car showroom etc, for example, the good salesmen treat my questions as signs of enthusiam, buying signals if yoiu like.... I'm very keen on this PA stuff and what I have read so far in the thread, and as i say, i have tried demo trading simple candlestick reversals so I'm sure price-action trading works very well if done properly - I just need to know how, and get some idea and this seems to be the ideal place. Hopefully I'll get right into it, perhaps full time eventually, and hope to then be able to enjoy giving something back.

Thanks a million, folks

edit - one other thing - what is a "Lifetime Member", and who's lifetime does it refer to? ..Does the forum web site disappear in the event that any key individuals disappear? Thanks again.
  • #39,555
  • Jul 31, 2009 5:24am Jul 31, 2009 5:24am
Thanks very much indeed. the thread is clearly still very active!


I'm very tempted to join up now to save time going through 2700 pages, though I feel I would be missing something. I've now scanned 500 pages so far, and made some notes.

It is very likely I will join up. It's just a matter of when. And then I'll throw myself into it - i do tend to concentrate my efforts on one thing at a time, and get very enthusiastic!

Good, that will serve you well on your trading journey, intensity in any field shortens the learning curve.

May I put a few queries as they pop into my head?

Are most of you members of the PF too?

Once was, will be again soon (Poor uni student hehe) I love the PF and I am not getting paid or have any vested interest in saying it, I am simply a satisfied customer, and to be honest it's dirt cheap

How many here are in or near my timezone (UK)?

You will get a lot of people from Europe on here, this thread is active literally 24/7, it's like the forex markets ! . Different people are here at different times. It's like my morning ritual to get up at 6AM to trade and I read the same peoples posts every morning lol

Do many of you trade the London FX session?

Yes sir.

Are many of you full-time traders here?

Hmmm lemme think, I know Mike is full time, Raczek is full time, I think Jduester is full time too ? . A lot of us are not and a lot of us wouldn't dream of trading full time (I wouldn't personally rely on it) I am probably missing out people, I can say that we have a lot of full time traders on here in comparison to other threads But I would reckon the vast amount of people are here part time.

Is most of the daily trading discussion done on there, rather than here? With the general chit chat, social stuff and comaraderie here?

Meh, the PF is really very active too, theres all types of discussion there. There is awesome comraderie in the PF, it feels very supportive. I think theres less general chit chat over in the PF but it has it's own sub forum for the chit chat

I've scanned this thread to around the end of October 2007 - has there been much detailed discussion of the methods since then? I notice James had not been able to contribute a great deal then but said he should be able to later and had great plans for the thread? More of the method etc

Yeah well I have seen every single question answered several times now. I learn every day from everyone in the thread. Trading the J16 method is like a journey more than a "system". When you start trading Daily's you start learning certain things, then see if you can apply them in different ways.
The base to everyones method here was presented by James himself, but we all have different systems in a way.

What has happened to some of the old posters? I recognise mbqb11 very well (fabulous posts, Mike). What happened to other good posters, such as The-Wizard, and others?

A lot of them are still around, The Wizard isn't though

Is the method discussed here mostly trading pins, sometimes inside or outside bars and ocasionally the double high/low with a low/high close at places which coincide with support/resistance levels, fibs, trendlines, Moving averages when the price is moving/swinging around in uncluttered areas?

Depends for different people, some people like pins. I love outside bars and find 70% of my trades are from outside bars. I think the idea of the PPZ and confluence is essential to all J16 methods. Yeah you have it explained already. But somepeople only choose to take certain elements, from that list I would say I trade. Pins, mostly outside bars. the places have to be at support/resistance (PPZ) I don't like use Moving averages, I don't use trendlines. Yeah uncluttered areas are the best.

Currency pairs seem to be drifting sideways on the larger timeframes this year - are you all trading something else till they start moving better?

Some people trade different instruments, a lot of us are on the sidelines for the most part with the current chop but I mean it's only going to be time until it breaks out, theres plenty of trades out there right now if we just wait for them and have patience. EURUSD gave some nice trades this week. James16 posted some nice charts. I think it was James himself who said - Everything wins in a trend, but it's how you survive in the range periods that makes one profitable. You can still trade ranges too, if anything I reckon James16 himself like ranges better than trends

Do you trade mostly currencies, or do you trade other instruments too. It seems that some posters, in the pages I have looked at so far (eg james16 and The_Wizard), have actually or had a preference for trading commodities or other non-fx securities, finding them easier. What are the easiest instruments to make a profit from using this method? And, I suppose, at this time following the crunch?

The thread deals mostly with Forex nowadays but any charts of any instruments, J16 can be applied to anything, Stocks, commodities . . Everything. I don't think theres really a "easiest market" or whatever.

Do you specialise in trading one or two securities, perhaps with multiple strategies, or do yiu trade a larger range of instrument, perhaps looking for ideal setups with a single strategy?

[b]I only live trade forex, I demo different instruments now and then. I'll be looking to trade more when I open an IB account/B]

What kind of strategy do you find works for you with the price action discussed here?

Everyone is going to have a different answer for this, a lot of people have different nuances, 90% of my method is J16 stuff explained to me by either jim or Mike. If you stick to PA + PPA, it's a combination destined to succeed ! hehe

Do you all find the higher timeframes (eg 4 and over) less risky and more rewarding than lower ones where the stop losses can be tighter? At what level eg 30 min timeframe do you find the signals less reliable?

Everything has a risk, higher timeframes are probably relatively less riskier than say lower ones though, it depends on ones skill which one is more rewarding lol . Below 4HR signals are less reliable.

Is perhaps the emphasis on trading only higher timeframes to get reliable signals a bit overdone if you can trade the most active session eg London, where there may be more ticks in a bar?

It's not overdone at all, if you don't understand the Daily understand how and why it does certain things at certain areas there is no way you will be able to trade the lower timeframes. A lot of people daytrade it once they get the Daily's down fine. If you can't trade the Daily's your going to get murdered on the lower TF's. From the outside in trading the Daily seems weird but after I did it I was like "thats simply the most beneficial thing EVER"

Do you use a variety of different timeframes eg TF to set a favoured direction, TF to find support/resistance levels, another for entry, another to manage the trade, another to exit, etc?

Some people do I guess, around when I started the PF I asked Mike this question and he said he treats every timeframe seperate, I thought this was the stupidest thing in the world at the time, now I agree with him and I always treat the different timeframes differently. ie. Enter on the 4HR, exit on the 4HR, manage on the 4HR etc.

Do you trade retracements, reversals etc or range breakouts eg when an fx session opens?

No sir.

What about other kinds of price action, such as trading 1-2-3 reversals?

I personally don't.

I think I noticed in the early posts, that there was an emphasis on waiting for only trading perfect setups... it is said to be very easy to lose money trading so is this still the case with the methods used here?

Indeed, thats one of the major things taught here, waiting for the perfect setups until everything lines up.

Do yiu find you can trade larger positions on perfect setups, or do minimum amounts on less-than-perfect setups on lower timeframes do the trick too?

Meh, you can do either. I usually stick to low risk no matter what I am trading, It's rare for me to Risk above 1% on anything, it's not that I don't like winning because I do but I just hate drawdown . If you want to risk more you obviously run the risk of more drawdown but greater rewards, different people can stomach different amounts of it it is a person thing.

Don't you also find that you gain much more practice and experience if you trade on the lower timeframes? Doesn't it take a heck of a long time to gain experience trading perfect setups on the higher timeframes, especially if trading a narrow range of securities eg only currency pairs?

No the opposite is true.

If you look at the lower timeframes and apply it to the Daily you want be able to trade whatsoever. It's a different type of experience.

I can't stress enough HOW DIFFERENT the 1HR is from Daily, it is a completely different world. If you look at 60 forex pairs daily, you can look at other markets. Backtest years of data, thats where you will gain experience. It doesn't take a heck of a lot of time at all, you do your 3 months and then you are done. What other area of life can you spend three months at something and be good enough to potentially make a career out of it ? The Answer - f*ck all

Also, thos with low funded a/cs - is it better to id a setup then drop down to a lower timeframe, and trade larger position with a smaller stop loss?

Some people do that, starting off it's better just to do it exclusively on the Daily. If you start getting saucy with a smaller stop you start getting saucy with the lower % wins etc. It all has it's advantages and disadvantages.



Better stop there. Full of questions at first, as always, so sorry about that It's just enthusiasm, really. I do tend to ask a lot of questions when I'm keen. Let me know if that's a problem - I like it straight. .. I know when I ask lost of questions in a shop, car showroom etc, for example, the good salesmen treat my questions as signs of enthusiam, buying signals if yoiu like.... I'm very keen on this PA stuff and what I have read so far in the thread, and as i say, i have tried demo trading simple candlestick reversals so I'm sure price-action trading works very well if done properly - I just need to know how, and get some idea and this seems to be the ideal place. Hopefully I'll get right into it, perhaps full time eventually, and hope to then be able to enjoy giving something back.

Nah questions are good, if your asking the right question then the right answer is not far off. It was in Mikes exit strategy thread over in the PF where he had a nice rant about the word "Why?" being a great word. If you keep asking yourself questions in trading it's a great thing.

I have had most of those questions in my mind at one time or another. to be honest experiencing them yourself will be way way better than you coming on and getting people to answer them. Like theres nothing stopping you from having two demo accounts and when you see a Daily setup on one take it and exit on the Daily, on the other drop down to the lower timeframes and try the 4HR entry or whatever.

Thanks a million, folks

edit - one other thing - what is a "Lifetime Member", and who's lifetime does it refer to? ..Does the forum web site disappear in the event that any key individuals disappear? Thanks again.

Lol I never thought of who's lifetime does it apply to !

I really doubt anyone will disappear, even if people do stop teaching with the group for whatever reasons I am sure there would be more than enough qualified people to replace them. Well . . Thats what I imagine anyway heh

Regards,
Thomas



EDIT - I am Irish myself so I am here all day. I always leave this thread running on a spare screen.
  • #39,556
  • Edited 6:15am Jul 31, 2009 5:59am | Edited 6:15am
JamesL,
Welcome!
VERY lengthy second post. Wow...

i'll try to answer only those questions that i can &/or know of.
here goes:
--firstly, i'm not a PF member... yet.

--it's very safe to say that only a few are members of the PF, in relation the number of FX traders &/or FF members. (not to mention that most FF members are lurkers in this thread)

--there are at least a handful of traders whom are in or near your timezone (UK)

--many/most traders trade the London session. as it is the most/1 of the most active sessions

--like above, the number of full time traders are small.

--daily trading discussion, general chit chat, social stuff and camaraderie are done here & there, i believe.

--detailed discussions have been done throughout the years. it's good to read as much as possible of the past pages & present pages (to be up to speed of the current happenings/markets situations, etc)

--most of the old posters either are already enjoying their profits, quit forex, have been busy with other stuff/business, still continue lurking. but recently, i believe sir James16 has encouraged all PF members to post (a lot more often) here in the public thread as well. still, i believe some old posters preferred to post mostly within the PF.

--method discussed here consists of any PA setups that are visible to thread posters.but usually PBs & OB trades are prevantly posted.

--"Currency pairs seem to be drifting sideways" --- james16 method is applicable in any market situations, be it trending or ranging. applicable in any timeframe as well (but for the sake of the many new/newer traders here, H4 & up charts are mostly discussed).
--any instruments can/are discussed. but since this is FF (Forex factory), fx is mostly discussed.

--"Do you specialise in trading one or two securities, perhaps with multiple strategies, or do yiu trade a larger range of instrument, perhaps looking for ideal setups with a single strategy?" ---this is trader-dependent.

--
Quote
Is perhaps the emphasis on trading only higher timeframes to get reliable signals a bit overdone if you can trade the most active session eg London, where there may be more ticks in a bar?
-- in a way, yes. read Sir mbqb11's recent post.

--
Quote
Do you use a variety of different timeframes eg TF to set a favoured direction, TF to find support/resistance levels, another for entry, another to manage the trade, another to exit, etc?
Do you trade retracements, reversals etc or range breakouts eg when an fx session opens?
What about other kinds of price action, such as trading 1-2-3 reversals?
-- quick answer, Yes. best to read post of seasoned traders here to learn about these.

--
Quote
I think I noticed in the early posts, that there was an emphasis on waiting for only trading perfect setups....
yes, it's still best to trade the best setups. u can trade less than ideal setups but expect a less than ideal result or worse a loss.

--
Quote
Do you find you can trade larger positions on perfect setups, or do minimum amounts on less-than-perfect setups on lower timeframes do the trick too?
short answer, you can do both. but it's best to stick with the best setups. btw, best setups are called A+ setups. but this is a subjective way of describing setups.

--
Quote
Don't you also find that you gain much more practice and experience if you trade on the lower timeframes? Doesn't it take a heck of a long time to gain experience trading perfect setups on the higher timeframes, especially if trading a narrow range of securities eg only currency pairs?
on the contrary, u learn more on the higher timeframes. what u gain mainly (from trading & sticking with H4 & up charts) are PATIENCE & a better eye on good/correct PPZs/ S&R's.

--
Quote
Also, thos with low funded a/cs - is it better to id a setup then drop down to a lower timeframe, and trade larger position with a smaller stop loss?
example. find a setup on H4 & trade & exit it in the same timeframe (using PPZs of that timeframe & of the higher timeframes).
it's best to demo for 3-12months (depends mainly on your learning curve). or better yet follow the MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS on this thread's post #1. also, it's highly recommended that a trader acquires a sufficiently funded account (traders have varied views on this, probably $10k - $100k is "sufficient" but to me that is a lot & out of my reach as well as to the 95%+ of the people in my country).

--Lifetime member --- i believe these are PF members who have been paying member for 12months. after 12months, one becomes a lifetime member.


.....
I may have not comprehensively answered all your Q's, but hopefully my answers gave u enough ideas on what u are interest with.
Keep on reading & never stop learning&asking! Good luck!


EDIT: i had a hard time posting this post. all because of a CRAPPY INTERNET!!!!! i lost track, i think i got intermittently disconnected for 40-60minutes.
Dang this CRAP!!!!
there, i feel much better, Thanks
  • #39,557
  • Jul 31, 2009 6:28am Jul 31, 2009 6:28am
I ended up with a small profit (I scaled into this PB short).... But I got spooked on that spike back up to test the 1.8033 resistance level. GBPCHF looks like it may form a BEOB....Any comments on a) the failed PB short and b) a possible short if BEOB presents itself?

Would appreciate the expert analysis from you vets. Thanks.

GregB
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  • #39,558
  • Jul 31, 2009 6:36am Jul 31, 2009 6:36am
Quoting JamesL
Thanks very much indeed. the thread is clearly still very active!

I'm very tempted to join up now to save time going through 2700 pages, though I feel I would be missing something. I've now scanned 500 pages so far, and made some notes.

It is very likely I will join up. It's just a matter of when. And then I'll throw myself into it - i do tend to concentrate my efforts on one thing at a time, and get very enthusiastic!

May I put a few queries as they pop into my head?



Are most of you members of the PF too?

How many here are...
Hi James,

No problem to ask a bunch of question. I'll pm you over the weekend with a detailed reply to keep things clean on the thread.

Aaron

PS A quick one: After 12 months paid membership to J16 PF you are a lifetime member. Meaning it's free for life from then on.
  • #39,559
  • Jul 31, 2009 6:50am Jul 31, 2009 6:50am
Quoting JamesL
Thanks very much indeed. the thread is clearly still very active!

I'm very tempted to join up now to save time going through 2700 pages, though I feel I would be missing something. I've now scanned 500 pages so far, and made some notes.

It is very likely I will join up. It's just a matter of when. And then I'll throw myself into it - i do tend to concentrate my efforts on one thing at a time, and get very enthusiastic!
Hi James,

A lot of Q's there, unfortunately I cannot answer all of them, I will only give a brief opinion.
I think that both this and the PF are invaluable.
If you have read the first 500 pages of this forum I think you won't have to read too much further to have come across 80% of the ideas and techniques
here, but of course it is all worth reading.

I am a member of the PF. Its great. I find it well worth the money. I am very limited in my time for study and it helps me cut to the quick. Additionally, as well as excellent sections from James16 (of course) there are excellent sections from senior members of this foruma dn to top it all it has Fuji's psychology section which is invaluable.
I'd suggest paying for a month and see what you think, its the only way you'll be really sure. My bet is that you'll stay the 12 months to become a lifetime member.
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #39,560
  • Jul 31, 2009 6:54am Jul 31, 2009 6:54am
Quoting batesmotel
I ended up with a small profit (I scaled into this PB short).... But I got spooked on that spike back up to test the 1.8033 resistance level. GBPCHF looks like it may form a BEOB....Any comments on a) the failed PB short and b) a possible short if BEOB presents itself?
Im short since yesterday, it hasn't failed yet ?

I like this level, I liked it yesterday I still like it today. The GBP side of this trade is letting us down, I thought 1.65 would hold yesterday on the GBPUSD and head down, it would have been fine then.

BEOB possibility this hour (closing in ten minutes) and another one the hour after.

Huge 1HR BEOB at a swing high on the GBPUSD might help it out here, although it has to get back through the .65 on the way down :|

Quoting TiaForex
Hi James,

No problem to ask a bunch of question. I'll pm you over the weekend with a detailed reply to keep things clean on the thread.

Aaron

PS A quick one: After 12 months paid membership to J16 PF you are a lifetime member. Meaning it's free for life from then on.
Aaron,

You might as well post the answers here in the thread so everyone can learn from it.



EDIT -

GBPCHF chart, BEOB closed on the 4HR gbpchf and on the 1HR BEOB on GBPUSD, looks ok, USDCHF seems sidewaysish though.
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