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Daily candle chart

  • #8,981
  • Jul 30, 2009 9:18am Jul 30, 2009 9:18am
lol hey Baz howz it going


Quoting baz
remember what Mum used to say
"eat your weetabix if you want to be a BIG BOY "...
Hmmnn i wonder if thats what she meant by BIG BOYs.....

Waiting for Monthlys to close,and see ..

nice to have you back Tony..

baz
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #8,982
  • Jul 30, 2009 4:14pm Jul 30, 2009 4:14pm
a few hours later for cad/lfx.....

break of this BIG BIG trendline.

On 1 h chart, you see retest of this trendline.

Now fly cad, fly

cad up, means usd


Quoting peaches
I think most importend in candlestick trading is to know why candlestick pattern appear, and seperate the bad from the good/true pattern.

Lets have a look at the cad/lfx and usd plus dow jones for example.

The cad/lfx is running into a resistance line, so this hanging man appears, but bulls are there, you can see this on daily cahrt at the lower wicks and the second cadnle after the hanging man..

So nobody can say, if this trendline holds, or if it breaks (o.k. volume might add here information), but put it together with the dow jones running...
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  • #8,983
  • Jul 30, 2009 4:17pm Jul 30, 2009 4:17pm
Quoting peaches
We have seen this tri star pattern on the TNX last days, which is a good pattern for reverse and down the TNX.

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs69.asp

BUT what a surprise yesterday, the TNX was NOT dropping that much.

I`am speculating on a bullish TNX during us session today.

This might bring us a triangle break for usd/jpy and make other yen crosses jump.
usd/jpy a few hours later:

normaly I donīt trade usd/jpy, but this was to tempting:
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  • #8,984
  • Jul 30, 2009 4:27pm Jul 30, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting baz
sorry chart...

GBP_USD Spot.png

hi Baz

If usd will go sideway, thats no problem, because gbp/lfx will have a lift off.

As hussin said: double top is minimum, I vote for trendline break
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  • #8,985
  • Jul 30, 2009 4:33pm Jul 30, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting Bones
I agree Pete that the future is unwritten so no one can be 100%.But for the likes of Hussin who know how to read a chart and I suspect a good knowledge of all the markets generally ,he has a very high probability chance of getting the direction .
The past is what all technicians rely on so the future comes from the past if you know what I mean,lol
Fundamental is already priced in ,trust me the big boys know whats coming there.

Yes tony, but question is, when is a pattern reliable, and when not.

For example aud/usd bearish engulfing candle:

Mr. Thomas N. Bulkowski gives in his book "Encyclopedia of
Candlestick Charts" the propability for a bearish engulfing candle in a bull market :

"Bearish reversal 63% of the time"

So we have seen for aud/usd the 37 % case.
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  • #8,986
  • Jul 30, 2009 4:42pm Jul 30, 2009 4:42pm
I see eur/usd bullish for on or 2 trading days, but I see range form
longer term...

This is because eur/lfx is bearish, but usd/lfx is bearish too.
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  • #8,987
  • Jul 30, 2009 5:43pm Jul 30, 2009 5:43pm
Quoting peaches
hi Baz

If usd will go sideway, thats no problem, because gbp/lfx will have a lift off.

As hussin said: double top is minimum, I vote for trendline break
Hi Peter

i think i will wait for Monthly close,and for direction,possibly wait untill Tuesday,although its also NFP next Friday....
But like you say,its possibility,that we are at " Equillibrium".....so a Fixed range,and moves inside the range......unless something dramatic happen..

baz
  • #8,988
  • Jul 30, 2009 6:30pm Jul 30, 2009 6:30pm
Quoting peaches
one and half trading day for geppy:

- hanging man,
- doji or
- so called "pin bar"

at month end ?
could someone help clarify this for me...
everyone tends to play pin bars as reversals but for that to be a reversal the body would need to be down the bottom like a shooting star.

A hanging man is a reversal signal in an uptrend which this one is...

so is this a continuation or a reversal pattern?

obviously we need price action to open either below or above this candlestick next month to see if it is a reversal or continuation?

me personally i think i would treat it as a hanging man and look for a downmove if i get confirmation?

i mean its off a monthly chart you cant get a clearer signal than that
  • #8,989
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:40am Jul 31, 2009 12:40am
I agree, that from point of candlestick pattern, this is a hanging man. But differenze between good hanging man, and not that good hanging man is color of candle. Good hanging man would have a red body, not that good would be a green body.

pin bars are not part of candlestick pattern, so I do not write about it here that much. Switch to the J16 thread, guys there would be very happy to be ask

(short explanation for a pin bar: the wick has to have his location at a serious resistance or support, where price is rejected.)

lets wait for monthly close and discuss at sunday or beginng next week monthly candle.





Quoting supermatt
could someone help clarify this for me...
everyone tends to play pin bars as reversals but for that to be a reversal the body would need to be down the bottom like a shooting star.

A hanging man is a reversal signal in an uptrend which this one is...

so is this a continuation or a reversal pattern?

obviously we need price action to open either below or above this candlestick next month to see if it is a reversal or continuation?

me personally i think i would treat it as a hanging man and look for a downmove if i get confirmation?

i...
  • #8,990
  • Jul 31, 2009 2:13am Jul 31, 2009 2:13am
yeh i agree. I do know a few people that trade pin bars just purely based on what you said.. ie a sharp rejection of price from either a support or resistance level.

But cool, like you said they arent even a candlestick pattern as you read the candlestick patterns differently. A hanging man to candlestick traders is a reversal clue, where as people wanting to look for a pin bar... this is the wrong way around for them
  • #8,991
  • Jul 31, 2009 2:45pm Jul 31, 2009 2:45pm
yen below TL
euro range, 2.51-2.56
aud piercing done good, breakout
usd down, slowly
gbp wakes up, below 3
cad harami cross, some resistance (still in monthly range)
xau on support, hanging man, do we get a test again? or up to 980, 15
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Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #8,992
  • Aug 1, 2009 5:33pm Aug 1, 2009 5:33pm
Yes this is a great question and once you have the experience to see which is good and not them odds start stacking up in your favor pretty quick.
I think we both have realized these patterns with no room to run are unreliable to take....



Quoting peaches
Yes tony, but question is, when is a pattern reliable, and when not.

For example aud/usd bearish engulfing candle:

Mr. Thomas N. Bulkowski gives in his book "Encyclopedia of
Candlestick Charts" the propability for a bearish engulfing candle in a bull market :

"Bearish reversal 63% of the time"

So we have seen for aud/usd the 37 % case.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #8,993
  • Aug 1, 2009 5:38pm Aug 1, 2009 5:38pm
And also we can add confluence like the USDLFX which was at the same time as the bearish engulfing being rejected off the falling TL
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #8,994
  • Aug 1, 2009 5:41pm Aug 1, 2009 5:41pm
u.j bearish engulfing? seems the pair is in an overall downtrend and the weekly candle is a spinning top
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  • #8,995
  • Aug 2, 2009 4:23am Aug 2, 2009 4:23am
morning star on euro
good work by piercing on aud, xau, xag
gbp ... tweezer support held
resistance for yen
usd, interesting, we broke through resistance but the move was strong, is this pace sustainable? i dont know
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Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #8,996
  • Aug 3, 2009 9:41am Aug 3, 2009 9:41am
Quoting Bones
And also we can add confluence like the USDLFX which was at the same time as the bearish engulfing being rejected off the falling TL
yes,usdchf had broken down.
I see usd index down to 72-70 area
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  • #8,997
  • Aug 4, 2009 6:24pm Aug 4, 2009 6:24pm
some indicision. kinda a spinning top / doji like forming a double top?
will have to keep an eye out on g.j
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  • #8,998
  • Aug 5, 2009 4:56pm Aug 5, 2009 4:56pm
Could someone tell me if these are considered an evening star pattern? I know not all patterns can be textbook but can you still call these worthy ?
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  • #8,999
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:46pm Aug 6, 2009 4:46pm
high wave on gold
long upper wick on silver @15 (previous advance block?)
cad has some troubles getting down, i guess that means up, but i wait for confirmation
morning star on euro did well
gbp turned @3 strong resistance with an engulfing
pullback on usd?

hussin, how are you? all the best to you and your family
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Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #9,000
  • Aug 8, 2009 3:02am Aug 8, 2009 3:02am
Hello friends

Would u like to put short comment on this.
What does it mean ?
I am newbe please help.
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