Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1003 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #20,041
  • Jul 28, 2009 1:08pm Jul 28, 2009 1:08pm
i like the way daily dollar index candles and usd/chf are starting to look like. i could be wrong but it looks bullish for dollar atm.
  • #20,042
  • Jul 28, 2009 1:36pm Jul 28, 2009 1:36pm
Well I guess the f ing DOW will be positive again today, what the hell?
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #20,043
  • Jul 28, 2009 1:42pm Jul 28, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting bkg102665
Well I guess the f ing DOW will be positive again today, what the hell?
It might, but I'm not holding my breathe for it. We still have 1h 15m til close. Position squaring going on atm.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #20,044
  • Jul 28, 2009 1:55pm Jul 28, 2009 1:55pm
DOW is putting in a massive pin on the h1 getting ready to close.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #20,045
  • Jul 28, 2009 2:00pm Jul 28, 2009 2:00pm
ahh stopped out .......again
  • #20,046
  • Jul 28, 2009 2:01pm Jul 28, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting eohater
DOW is putting in a massive pin on the h1 getting ready to close.
Here's the last h1 closed on the DOW, lets see if it does it's job on sends price back down on the DOW. I can't guarantee about cable, but I can see us testing the 6415 area again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dowh1.PNG Size: 24 KB
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #20,047
  • Jul 28, 2009 2:02pm Jul 28, 2009 2:02pm
It has been a slow grind but EJ managed a 38% retrace good for almost 80 pips.
  • #20,048
  • Jul 28, 2009 2:03pm Jul 28, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting eohater
Here's the last h1 closed on the DOW, lets see if it does it's job on sends price back down on the DOW. I can't guarantee about cable, but I can see us testing the 6415 area again
of course it will, i got stopped out so now price will reverse and continue down
  • #20,049
  • Jul 28, 2009 2:07pm Jul 28, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting eohater
DOW is putting in a massive pin on the h1 getting ready to close.
Nice pin, thanks for the chart. Lets go fire sale!!!
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #20,050
  • Jul 28, 2009 2:07pm Jul 28, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting lexazver
of course it will, i got stopped out so now price will reverse and continue down
Sorry bro! It's frustrating I know. It happens to all of us. For example, I'll take a long position, book some profit, cover BE and she comes right back down, hits my SL then takes off 200 points long leaving my position closed.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #20,051
  • Jul 28, 2009 3:27pm Jul 28, 2009 3:27pm
took short at 6433.. will see
  • #20,052
  • Jul 28, 2009 4:07pm Jul 28, 2009 4:07pm
Quoting FOURX
a 308 pip move and you caught 300 of them, i would have liked a more instructive answer,maybe even a chart,

thanks
On this move down, you should have noticed we were close to yesterday's highs at 136.08. Further, price was really struggling to break 136.00 (a nice pysch level).

Added to this, check the circled area on my chart. You had a pin type bar, followed by a down bar, and then the following bar failed to close above the high of the pin. If bulls were in control, we'd have looked to close above that pin. I've not spent a lot of time in this thread lately, so I don't know if this aspect of EO's trading methodology is highlighted as much as it used to be, but failure to take out price action bars by closing above them is a strong indicator of selling pressure.

There's a few other signals there, that aren't part of the method taught in this thread, but if you're familiar with them would have given you added confidence. The pin type bar had increased volume; now if that's buyers, why did we close on the lows, and why was the next bar a down bar? That tells you the high volume contained not only buyers, but also sellers. The second up bar that failed to close above our PA bar, was on lesser volume, that ought to tell you a bull move further up doesn't really have any conviction behind it. You've got the same kind of story on the M5 and M30 chart, if anything, it's probably clearer on the M30.

So given all of that, it was worth a punt to take a position circa 135.90 or higher, with a SL above 136.08.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.jpg Size: 118 KB
  • #20,053
  • Jul 28, 2009 5:30pm Jul 28, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting daffy
On this move down, you should have noticed we were close to yesterday's highs at 136.08....

hey daffy, is that volume histogram on the left side of your screen? if so do you mind sharing it here?
  • #20,054
  • Jul 28, 2009 5:56pm Jul 28, 2009 5:56pm
WONDERFUL EXPLANATION....GREATLY APPRECIATED

Quoting daffy
On this move down, you should have noticed we were close to yesterday's highs at 136.08....
  • #20,055
  • Jul 28, 2009 6:06pm Jul 28, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting eohater
Sorry bro! It's frustrating I know. It happens to all of us. For example, I'll take a long position, book some profit, cover BE and she comes right back down, hits my SL then takes off 200 points long leaving my position closed.
hehe what did i tell you , took me out, moved 6-8 pips further and reverse anyways ill stop crying about it now. im on a quest to learn setting proper stops
  • #20,056
  • Jul 28, 2009 9:47pm Jul 28, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting Infinity
The next 3 days will shape our monthly candle... so again... caution must be excercised during this period... COVER YOUR ASSES!!!
just in case anyone missed this post....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #20,057
  • Jul 28, 2009 11:43pm Jul 28, 2009 11:43pm
Quoting Infinity
just in case anyone missed this post....
I feel ya.....I haven't even traded this week because I needed time to think.

Plus I have to learn the new NFA rules effective Monday 8/2/09 about FIFO (first in-first out) with my broker. :nerd:

This gives me the chance to watch, because I feel like she's about to bust......

For those who have been getting some pips, SWEET!!!

Catch ya in the am...

HOLLA
  • #20,058
  • Jul 29, 2009 12:27am Jul 29, 2009 12:27am
Quoting lexazver
hey daffy, is that volume histogram on the left side of your screen? if so do you mind sharing it here?
Here's the post I got it from, with an explanation in the quoted section of that post of what the 3 coloured regions mean.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2402
  • #20,059
  • Jul 29, 2009 1:40am Jul 29, 2009 1:40am
Quoting Turtle
I feel ya.....I haven't even traded this week because I needed time to think.

Plus I have to learn the new NFA rules effective Monday 8/2/09 about FIFO (first in-first out) with my broker. :nerd:

This gives me the chance to watch, because I feel like she's about to bust......

For those who have been getting some pips, SWEET!!!

Catch ya in the am...

HOLLA
Hey bro! I'm with you on those issues....however, even though it is volatile atm.. there are some nice pips to be had, risk management and money management are just extra important now...... I just closed out a nice short from 6460 to 6360.. would reverse.. but just not feeling it atm.... going to bed now and will look for new opps in new york session..
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #20,060
  • Jul 29, 2009 1:43am Jul 29, 2009 1:43am
Quoting Infinity
Hey bro! I'm with you on those issues....however, even though it is volatile atm.. there are some nice pips to be had, risk management and money management are just extra important now...... I just closed out a nice short from 6460 to 6360.. would reverse.. but just not feeling it atm.... going to bed now and will look for new opps in new york session..
Nice trade! I got on the bus at a later station but still made some nice pips. See you later.
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