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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #19,901
  • Jul 25, 2009 2:52pm Jul 25, 2009 2:52pm
I've been trading cable for only 6 months so this is a question for more seasoned traders: have you noticed cable involved in seasonal cycle patterns? I ask because this morning in Murphy's TA book I read that the $ tends to bottom in January (and looking at the chart he provides, tends to rise in September for several months). It also falls in line with a fascinating VIX composite of the past 19 years which shows seasonal movements here:

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/...cycle-low.html

So far we have not seen the VIX rise. But like the $ its fall has slowed. Considering that equity markets have continued to follow seasonal movements in spite of the recession, it would seem logical that the VIX and $ will do so too, soon.
'The past will always show us the future'
  • #19,902
  • Jul 25, 2009 9:07pm Jul 25, 2009 9:07pm
good point... summer electricity use higher due to temperature and air-con...

so people tend to think that econ has recovered...

winter is reverse...

Quoting terje
I've been trading cable for only 6 months so this is a question for more seasoned traders: have you noticed cable involved in seasonal cycle patterns? I ask because this morning in Murphy's TA book I read that the $ tends to bottom in January (and looking at the chart he provides, tends to rise in September for several months). It also falls in line with a fascinating VIX composite of the past 19 years which shows seasonal movements here:

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/...cycle-low.html

So far we have not seen...
  • #19,903
  • Jul 25, 2009 11:41pm Jul 25, 2009 11:41pm
Quoting Superscalper
OK I HEVE BEEN REDING THE PDF AND I HEVE A Q

WHAT THE EXIT PLAN AND HOW DO U MANEG U R TRADE

IN ORDER TO TAKE THE MOST OUT OF THE TABEL WHIT A GENERAL

GOOD RISK/REWORD

THISE THERD LOOK GOOD ׂGOOD STUFׁ

BUT THISE IS MY MISSING PART ON THISE PAZEL

LOKKING FOR U COMMENT AND SO ON

ENGHLIS NOT MY NAITIVE LANGHUCH SO BEER WHITE ME

THENKS U ALL AND HEVE NICE WEEK END
Welcome to the thread! There is nothing set in stone on the management of our trades nor risk to reward. Good rule of thumb is to use our ma's for targets and SL. If I'm in a trend trade and wanting to manage the most of the movement, I will keep my SL behind the 15m 21ema and move it with the movement taking partial profit at key S/R. There are other times my trades will only yield 15-20 pips and I'll get stopped out. Either the trade goes against the intial setup or you find a better seat. My SL might not coincide with another person's desired R:R. I do recommend you know how much your willing to risk before entering a trade. This will also help you with setting your SL. If you don't know your SL, don't take the trade. Walk away, do more research, figure out why your taking the trade. If you cannot answer the question of why did I take this trade, then you don't need to enter. Cash needs to be your position until then. I will say this, if I'm risking 50pips, my loss will be the same if I'm risking 35pips.

Trade well!
EO
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #19,904
  • Jul 26, 2009 7:54am Jul 26, 2009 7:54am
Quoting eohater
Welcome to the thread! There is nothing set in stone on the management of our trades nor risk to reward. Good rule of thumb is to use our ma's for targets and SL. If I'm in a trend trade and wanting to manage the most of the movement, I will keep my SL behind the 15m 21ema and move it with the movement taking partial profit at key S/R. There are other times my trades will only yield 15-20 pips and I'll get stopped out. Either the trade goes against the intial setup or you find a better seat. My SL might not coincide with another person's desired...
EOHATER THENK U FOR U R REPLAY

FOR SURE I WILL TAKE U R ADVISE WHITE CONSIDERAITION

  • #19,905
  • Jul 26, 2009 11:09am Jul 26, 2009 11:09am
With this NFA rule coming up next week, do you think more people would move their FX funds to overseas?????

Would this cause movement to the dollar??

A quite storm brewing.......

Anything is possible.....

HOLLA
  • #19,906
  • Edited 11:30am Jul 26, 2009 11:18am | Edited 11:30am
Quoting Turtle
With this NFA rule coming up next week, do you think more people would move their FX funds to overseas?????

Would this cause movement to the dollar??

A quite storm possibly brewing.......

Anything is possible.....

HOLLA
no, they are imaginary moving dollar to offshore w/o exchange.

it is still traded in US server under the umbrella of an offshore license.

but it's possible that a lot of orders being closed end of month causing a huge reversal?
  • #19,907
  • Jul 27, 2009 8:05am Jul 27, 2009 8:05am
Anybody thinking short here based on the close of the 1 hour candle?
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #19,908
  • Jul 27, 2009 8:45am Jul 27, 2009 8:45am
Quoting bkg102665
Anybody thinking short here based on the close of the 1 hour candle?
I'm still short from Friday and I have some longs from 6445 as well. Both are covered, but with the turn of the last h1, I'm favoring my shorts.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #19,909
  • Jul 27, 2009 8:54am Jul 27, 2009 8:54am
I'm moving my SL on my short position back up to +3, I'm short from 6580.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #19,910
  • Jul 27, 2009 9:03am Jul 27, 2009 9:03am
Close above 6517 on the m15 and we'll continue north to 655x then possibly higher, close below 6488, we will see 645x and possibly lower.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #19,911
  • Jul 27, 2009 9:06am Jul 27, 2009 9:06am
Where the hell is my twin?
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #19,912
  • Jul 27, 2009 9:08am Jul 27, 2009 9:08am
Quoting eohater
Where the hell is my twin?

had too many jamaaaican beeear caaans on weekends probably
  • #19,913
  • Jul 27, 2009 9:09am Jul 27, 2009 9:09am
Quoting lexazver
had too many jamaaaican beeear caaans on weekends probably
He must have started early, didn't see him on Friday either!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #19,914
  • Jul 27, 2009 9:12am Jul 27, 2009 9:12am
Quoting eohater
He must have started early, didn't see him on Friday either!

must've been one awesome week for him or maybe his priorities are changing.....
  • #19,915
  • Jul 27, 2009 9:13am Jul 27, 2009 9:13am
Quoting lexazver
must've been one awesome week for him or maybe his priorities are changing.....
I know my bro had a great week in the markets. He has other obligations like myself that pull him from the markets from time to time though. Here she goes south!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #19,916
  • Jul 27, 2009 9:34am Jul 27, 2009 9:34am
Quoting eohater
Close above 6517 on the m15 and we'll continue north to 655x then possibly higher, close below 6488, we will see 645x and possibly lower.
If anyone sold the break of 6488, book some profit and cover BE. She could just sit in this damn range up to 6510.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #19,917
  • Jul 27, 2009 9:35am Jul 27, 2009 9:35am
Hello mates! Looking for a big week!

I have a long from early asian just below 6400 still running but my short from 6503 was stopped out on that spike up with -10.

  • #19,918
  • Jul 27, 2009 9:38am Jul 27, 2009 9:38am
Quoting Shilva
Hello mates! Looking for a big week!

I have a long from early asian just below 6400 still running but my short from 6503 was stopped out on that spike up with -10.

Hey bro! We will have a big week. Sorry to see your shorts were stopped out on the spike. You had a great seat, stop was just a little too tight since she was still in her range.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #19,919
  • Jul 27, 2009 9:39am Jul 27, 2009 9:39am
Quoting eohater
Where the hell is my twin?
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #19,920
  • Jul 27, 2009 9:41am Jul 27, 2009 9:41am
62 ema on 1hr showing stiff resistance.....ooops till now
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