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Attachments: 0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy
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0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

  • #241
  • Jul 26, 2009 7:52pm Jul 26, 2009 7:52pm
Quoting fed
hi, I don't know how you tested them but here are some examples from 2008, again I might be wrong but at least my testing was positive from 2008, the week of june 02 untill the end of the week for 5 trades there were 4 wins and 1 loss and guess what the 4 wins were all with TP1 and TP2 which totals to 400 pips - the loss about 100 pips. Take a look at the pics.
For that same June 2, 2008 week I have posted a graphic below of how I understand the rules. My understanding leaves me with a gain of 134 pips total for that week. Can you please tell me where I'm going wrong?

Thanks,
Jason
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy (week of june 2 2008).gif Size: 26 KB
  • #242
  • Jul 26, 2009 8:42pm Jul 26, 2009 8:42pm
It's great, Thank you for ur contribution~

I would like to clarify about point 6

If the range is smaller than 60 pips, the SL is put 10 pips higher/lower from entry point?
But for the range is greater than 60 pips, where should i put the SL?

Thank again~

Quoting fed
hi all. Ok guys I will give some full details how I do the breakout strategy. Note: This week Iwill switch to 15min chart, I have back tested it with 15 min chart and I found that if I have used 15 min chart I could of had the TP1 on friday by 30 pips and instead loosing the whole trade.

1. so on a 15 min chart draw 2 lines between 2 am - 5 am (according to my brocker my chart time I see is in GMT).

2. draw a line to high and a line to low in that box.

3. for long entry use 7 pips + spread

4. for short entry use only 7 pips no spread

5....
  • #243
  • Jul 26, 2009 8:43pm Jul 26, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting jasonphd
For that same June 2, 2008 week I have posted a graphic below of how I understand the rules. My understanding leaves me with a gain of 134 pips total for that week. Can you please tell me where I'm going wrong?

Thanks,
Jason
I am sorry you are right, I don't know what I was looking at before. The week after that was all 5 winners that week.
  • #244
  • Jul 26, 2009 8:47pm Jul 26, 2009 8:47pm
Quoting wltam
It's great, Thank you for ur contribution~

I would like to clarify about point 6

If the range is smaller than 60 pips, the SL is put 10 pips higher/lower from entry point?
But for the range is greater than 60 pips, where should i put the SL?

Thank again~
In this case I place the SL above the high/low points because 10 pips below exceeds 60 pips, let me know I can show some pics if you are still not clear.
  • #245
  • Jul 26, 2009 8:50pm Jul 26, 2009 8:50pm
Quoting fed
I am sorry you are right, I don't know what I was looking at before.
Fed, I've attached every trade I would have made in 2008 using my interpretation of your rules. I know it's a ton of data, but if you have a chance do you mind looking over it or spot checking the losers to make sure I am truly following your rules correctly?

Thanks,
Jason
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip test results.zip   53 KB | 670 downloads
  • #246
  • Jul 26, 2009 8:53pm Jul 26, 2009 8:53pm
fed whats your resuls for last week like ?
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #247
  • Jul 26, 2009 8:59pm Jul 26, 2009 8:59pm
Quoting maq
fed whats your resuls for last week like ?
I had 4 winners and a looser with about 220 pips. I could of had 5 out of 5 if I entered with 15 min chart damn
  • #248
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:06pm Jul 26, 2009 9:06pm
Quoting fed
I had 4 winners and a looser with about 220 pips. I could of had 5 out of 5 if I entered with 15 min chart damn
fed,

I don't understand what makes the difference between 15 min and 30 min chart? What time did you open the pending orders?

Also, in the ATR in Pips indicator, you said 24 hrsX 2: Did you input 96 as period and 2 as multiplier?
(for 24 hrs has 96 bars in 15 min chart)
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #249
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:09pm Jul 26, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting jasonphd
Fed, I've attached every trade I would have made in 2008 using my interpretation of your rules. I know it's a ton of data, but if you have a chance do you mind looking over it or spot checking the losers to make sure I am truly following your rules correctly?

Thanks,
Jason
I am looking at it now, I also have an account with ibfx, I didn't know that they had the strategy tester. Also I would recomend to test with 15 min chart. I am doing a back testing right now again which I did before by eye, but this time I am actually drawing lines and with more information. I can put images week by week from 2008, let me know.
  • #250
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:11pm Jul 26, 2009 9:11pm
Quoting RiverTrader
fed,

I don't understand what makes the difference between 15 min and 30 min chart? What time did you open the pending orders?
well with 15 min chart I would of entered sooner and I could of at least closed the first entry with 30 pips. 30 min chart allowed me to enter later when the pips were being lost as the price was moving quick.
  • #251
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:29pm Jul 26, 2009 9:29pm
Quoting fed
well with 15 min chart I would of entered sooner and I could of at least closed the first entry with 30 pips. 30 min chart allowed me to enter later when the pips were being lost as the price was moving quick.
fed,
1.do u pending order at 5.01 GMT? or 5.15 GMT?
2. If range between high and low below < 60 ex 30 pips we'll put SL 30 +-10 rite?
3. if range above 60 pips, put sl 60 pips or +- 10 pip of hi lo?
  • #252
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:30pm Jul 26, 2009 9:30pm
Ok I am still looking for 2008 and what I noticed is that between the high and low mostly it is about 25-40 pips in most cases, and if you traded TP1 20-25 pips and TP 2 with 30-35 should be fine. Market was ranging and acting differently but again a breakout is a breakout, if this stops making profit then I will change it slightly to match the market conditions.
  • #253
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:33pm Jul 26, 2009 9:33pm
Thanks fed,

Also, in the ATR in Pips indicator, you said 24 hrsX 2:
Did you input 96 as period and 2 as multiplier?
(for 24 hrs has 96 bars in 15 min chart)
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #254
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:48pm Jul 26, 2009 9:48pm
Quoting rapidfx
fed,
1.do u pending order at 5.01 GMT? or 5.15 GMT?
2. If range between high and low below < 60 ex 30 pips we'll put SL 30 +-10 rite?
3. if range above 60 pips, put sl 60 pips or +- 10 pip of hi lo?
1. 5:15

2. calculate SL between your entry point and high/low -+ 10. for ex lets say the price was 1000 and say I entered long 10 pips above high at 1010(7pips +3pips spread), and lets say the low was 970 line, so from 1010-970= 40 pips. Right at the low line is less then 60pips and what I do in that case is that I go 10 more pips below the low line and I bring my SL to 960 and total pips I would risk is 50 pips. First idea is to set your SL is low or high points by 10 pips from the price, if that is greater then 60 then there is no choice you will have to place the SL about the high or low and I really hate because To have a good winning percentage you need to try to bring your SL below 10 pips of the low line and that is if it is less then 60pips all total. I don't know if this makes sence. Try to bring SL as much as close the high/low lines because you are trading g/u not a/u.

Lets say the 10 pips below the low line was 80pips you were risking, then I will bring it 20 pips about the low line and if that looks close and the market is getting volatile then I would still risk 80 pips which I would place the SL below 10 pips below low point and I would target for more pips like TP1 would be 40 pips and TP2 would be 50 pips. Depends on the volitility too.
  • #255
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:49pm Jul 26, 2009 9:49pm
Quoting RiverTrader
Thanks fed,

Also, in the ATR in Pips indicator, you said 24 hrsX 2:
Did you input 96 as period and 2 as multiplier?
(for 24 hrs has 96 bars in 15 min chart)

yes you are right.
  • #256
  • Jul 26, 2009 10:04pm Jul 26, 2009 10:04pm
I am looking at 2008 more carefully now and to be honost there are times that between high and low lines only 20-25 pips, in that case I will not set TP1 to 30 which it will fail because the pair wasn't powerfull enough to move more then it did now, more like if you set your TP1 10-13 pips and TP2 20pips would have some great results, that is how it looks like so far. When we get US economy back to normal, I am assuming things will change and so are we.
  • #257
  • Jul 26, 2009 10:14pm Jul 26, 2009 10:14pm
I don't know about you guys but I don't care how many pips I make, what I care is the value of the pip and how much I made, because the pip value will calculate my risk not the amount of pips. So for ex let say I have a 10K mini account, I make sure I don't risk between 1-2% so it is ok for me to risk 60 pips for each entry with total of 2 entries(I go with 1 lot for each entry, 1 lot = $1) which will be about 1.2% and that is below my red line. If the market conditions change and now I will be risking lets say 20-30 pips, what I will do is that I will go with 4-5 lots per trade and that will again work out the same amount of income.
  • #258
  • Jul 26, 2009 10:58pm Jul 26, 2009 10:58pm
this is my understanding for normal case of fed method.
Please advise whether correct.
Thank you~
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2 cases.JPG Size: 19 KB
  • #259
  • Jul 27, 2009 12:39am Jul 27, 2009 12:39am
Quoting wltam
this is my understanding for normal case of fed method.
Please advise whether correct.
Thank you~

looks about right
  • #260
  • Jul 27, 2009 1:41am Jul 27, 2009 1:41am
Quoting fed
I am looking at 2008 more carefully now and to be honost there are times that between high and low lines only 20-25 pips, in that case I will not set TP1 to 30 which it will fail because the pair wasn't powerfull enough to move more then it did now, more like if you set your TP1 10-13 pips and TP2 20pips would have some great results, that is how it looks like so far. When we get US economy back to normal, I am assuming things will change and so are we.
Hi Fed, I think some flexibility is in order here for all sorts of reasons. Sometimes we do have to take only what the market is willing to offer and this morning is a good example. I use 3-6am(UK time) for setting Hi-Lo (on GU = 16465.0 -16421.3 bid).
Trade entry at 16472 then price bounced off the number several times so took TP1 for 23pips rather than hang out for the 30 target. Sods law says it will now break through that number at some stage, (done it now whilst writing) but I'm happy with 23 pips in the bank and TP2 still running.
This would be my attitude to any such number or S&R so as you say it doesn't pay to stick too rigidly to an exact number for targets, the market doesn't always comply.

rgds.
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