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  • #125,201
  • Jul 24, 2009 1:22pm Jul 24, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting ak4x
Some things don't really ever change, other than a little tweaking now and then. Acumen and me have been preaching pivots since the get go here, and Mike has some great resources on his website for the price of the time it takes to watch and learn.

About the kind words and all... it's always cool to hear the sound of someone else's nickel dropping...

Simple really does work my friend... ((btw, the "sir" part is a little creepy))

Now if you really want to add something into your learning curve, mind your [url="http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2570359"]quarter...
I wonŽt say Sir no more..lol..I promisse

Gonna check the quarters right now.
IŽll keep you updated.

  • #125,202
  • Jul 24, 2009 1:28pm Jul 24, 2009 1:28pm
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm
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  • #125,203
  • Jul 24, 2009 1:35pm Jul 24, 2009 1:35pm
HELLO everyone , i am back from my 3 months hollyday . I just want to say that my last profit allready finished , and what's left i put into a new beggining. Hope to enjoy my work for another time. Forgot my other password so a new Nickname i hope is for the best. Anyway wish you all best, and i hope my opinions will help me and you to reach new goods

P.S. Got 100 pips for first 2 days trading , most of them yesterday
never go for max profit, but for minimum lose !
  • #125,204
  • Jul 24, 2009 6:01pm Jul 24, 2009 6:01pm
Quoting IcoHristov
Forgot my other password so a new Nickname i hope is for the best.
Not really... I would have PM'd this to you but your PM and email options are disabled.

You should probably email Twee at his How can I help you? link and explain your situation pretty quick. They should be able to reset your Password or something on your old account, otherwise the software will catch you and you''ll get a 'multiple username' suspension.
FUBAR...
  • #125,205
  • Jul 24, 2009 6:27pm Jul 24, 2009 6:27pm
http://www.actionforex.com/articles-...2008112369460/

This is the best line of the write up.

"Success in trading is contingent not only on your analysis but on your ability to properly manage your position. That is why the game is hard. To be a winning trader you must be both - a good analyst and an an excellent risk manager."

Notice how the sentence is written.

A good analyst and an excellent risk manager.

He didn't write... an excellent analyst and a good risk manager.

Low leverage.
2 lots.
After 20-30 PIPS close one and move the stops to BE.

If you want to be trading 5 years from now then you better be an average trader who has mastered risk management.

As a matter of fact I know a few shitty traders who make money because of their risk management skills.

m
  • #125,206
  • Jul 24, 2009 6:28pm Jul 24, 2009 6:28pm
Quoting arthurb
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

I'm glad you post these at the end of every week.

It's really looking very one-sided now for the umpteenth week in a row.

Won't stay like this forever.
  • #125,207
  • Jul 24, 2009 6:37pm Jul 24, 2009 6:37pm
http://www.actionforex.com/articles-...2009062890464/

This should be NUMBER 1.

Fatal Flaw No. 5 - Lack of Money Management

The final fatal flaw to overcome as a trader is a Lack of Money Management, and this topic deserves more than just a few paragraphs, because money management encompasses risk/reward analysis, probability of success and failure, protective stops and so much more. Even so, I would like to address the subject of money management with a focus on risk as a function of portfolio size. Now the big boys (i.e., the professional traders) tend to limit their risk on any given position to 1% - 3% of their portfolio. If we apply this rule to ourselves, then for every $5,000 we have in our trading account, we can risk only $50-$150 on any given trade. Stocks might be a little different, but a $50 stop in Corn, which is one point, is simply too tight a stop, especially when the 10-day average trading range in Corn recently has been more than 10 points. A more plausible stop might be five points or 10, in which case, depending on what percentage of your total portfolio you want to risk, you would need an account size between $15,000 and $50,000.
Simply put, I believe that many traders begin to trade either under-funded or without sufficient capital in their trading account to trade the markets they choose to trade. And that doesn't even address the size that they trade (i.e., multiple contracts).
To overcome this fatal flaw, let me expand on the logic from the 'aim small, miss small' movie line. If you have a small trading account, then trade small. You can accomplish this by trading fewer contracts, or trading e-mini contracts or even stocks. Bottom line, on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader, you must realize that one key is longevity. If your risk on any given position is relatively small, then you can weather the rough spots. Conversely, if you risk 25% of your portfolio on each trade, after four consecutive losers, you're out all together.



I would add... even if you are trading a billion dollars... trade small in relation to the account size.
  • #125,208
  • Edited 7:03pm Jul 24, 2009 6:38pm | Edited 7:03pm
Time for the hourly analysis for the upcoming week.

We have a week full of contradictions and powerful opposing elements:

While bullish strength and sentiment can not be denied, it seems we are in a situation where the unstoppable force has met the immovable object. The hourly shows that serious attempts to break 4300 have resulted in lightning like sell offs followed by relatively slow, low/med. volume, but continuous buying. As I remarked earlier it seems that it would be more difficult to break this barrier on the second attempt, after a clear failure.
Others have mentioned that powerful financial interests are protecting 4300.

A quick look at the hourly may lead one to believe that we are in for a bounce and a retest of 4300, since the previous failure at 4252 sold off relatively slowly, just kissing the top of BB without penetrating. Still I would favor a sell off to the 4150-4170 area, making the case that we are seeing consolidation within the larger bear pattern circled in yellow on the chart. Possible test of 4144. If that gives way then a probable bounce from just under 4100.
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  • #125,209
  • Edited 7:29pm Jul 24, 2009 7:15pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting stevefx
Time for the hourly analysis for the upcoming week.

We have a week full of contradictions and powerful opposing elements:

While bullish strength and sentiment can not be denied....
I'd like to show you this(mine post) for reference only.
Notice the similarity of these moves.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ds#post2140251
  • #125,210
  • Jul 24, 2009 7:33pm Jul 24, 2009 7:33pm
Quoting 5ysfx
I'd like to show you this(mine post) for reference only.
Notice the similarity of these moves.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ds#post2140251
Thanks for the feedback, I love your TP analysis-guess that means we're in the mutual fund phase..
  • #125,211
  • Jul 24, 2009 8:15pm Jul 24, 2009 8:15pm
buddies.. its time to rest and take a look at the bigger picture
  • #125,212
  • Edited 9:08pm Jul 24, 2009 8:49pm | Edited 9:08pm
Quoting stevefx
We have a week full of contradictions and powerful opposing elements:

While bullish strength and sentiment can not be denied, it seems we are in
a situation where the unstoppable force has met the immovable object...........

Steve,

Please forgive me for going off on a tangent, but your choice of words describing
the two highly potent forces pushing the EU currency reminded me of a physics lesson
where some argued that 2 such things could not exist in this universe and some believed
that one or both actually could. Even exist in harmony with each other. Take a look:

In order for a force to be unstoppable, it would have to have infinite energy.
Although beyond our human comprehension, the limit of universal energy is finite (fixed).
We can't put a number on it because we don't know how much it is.
Could be that more is being created right now, but we don't really know.
All we think we know is that energy converts and changes form, but not lost.

In order for an object to be immovable, it would have to have infinite mass.
We will likely never know the limit, but, the amount of universal mass in existence at any given time
is finite, even as the universe expands. Of course, we don't know that number either,
because again, it's something beyond us mere mortals.

One possibility is that the unstoppable force would move around the immovable object,
the force would continue to move and the object would remain stationary,
both retaining their unstoppable/ immovable properties.

Another would involve the unstoppable force moving though the immovable object
in some type of dimensional shift whereby the immovable object remains fixed in place
on a given plane of existence, as the unstoppable force passes through on it's way to where ever it's going.
The force has not stopped and the object has not moved.


Many consider their God in this way as an unstoppable force. Whatever floats yer boat.
This is physics and forex, not religion 101, but the unstoppable nature of the power of God is also recognized.

It seems however, in either of these examples that the force wins, even if the object remains in place.

Now, as it relates to FOREX, The question will be: Is the force unstoppable ?

My opinion is that IT IS NOT UNSTOPPABLE and it can and will stop when the time comes.

So, whadaya think ? Am I full of shit ?
  • #125,213
  • Jul 24, 2009 8:52pm Jul 24, 2009 8:52pm
Quoting stevefx
Time for the hourly analysis for the upcoming week.

We have a week full of contradictions and powerful opposing elements:

While bullish strength and sentiment can not be denied, it seems we are in a situation where the unstoppable force has met the immovable object. The hourly shows that serious attempts to break 4300 have resulted in lightning like sell offs followed by relatively slow, low/med. volume, but continuous buying. As I remarked earlier it seems that it would be more difficult to break this barrier on the second attempt, after a...

Nice post. It is quite a guessing game for now. waiting to see where the chips fall.
  • #125,214
  • Jul 24, 2009 9:01pm Jul 24, 2009 9:01pm
Quoting toshi
Another would involve the unstoppable force moving though the immovable object in some type of dimensional shift... on a given plane of existence as the unstoppable force passes through on it's way to where ever it's going.

So, whadaya think? Am I full of shit ?
...Full of shift maybe...

Geez tosh, I dunno but I did like the dimensional shift thingy "on it's way to wherever it's going" part. I've had many days like that myself, mostly back in the late 60's tho...

Either way...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #125,215
  • Edited 9:14pm Jul 24, 2009 9:13pm | Edited 9:14pm
Quoting acumen
......
The final fatal flaw to overcome as a trader is a Lack of Money Management, ....... I believe that many traders begin to trade either under-funded or without sufficient capital in their trading account to trade the markets they choose to trade. .... If you have a small trading account, then trade small. ....I would add... even if you...
Thanks Acumen,

These are Golden Words.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #125,216
  • Jul 24, 2009 9:20pm Jul 24, 2009 9:20pm
Quoting toshi
Steve,

Please forgive me for going off on a tangent, but your choice of words describing
the two highly potent forces pushing the EU currency reminded me of a physics lesson
where some argued that 2 such things could not exist in this universe and some believed
that one or both actually could. Even exist in harmony with each other. Take a look:

In order for a force to be unstoppable, it would have to have infinite energy.
Although beyond our human comprehension, the limit of universal energy is finite (fixed).
We can't put a number on it because...
No, you are full of logic .............but this market isn't.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #125,217
  • Jul 24, 2009 9:55pm Jul 24, 2009 9:55pm
Quoting toshi
Steve,

Please forgive me for going off on a tangent, but your choice of words describing
the two highly potent forces pushing the EU currency reminded me of a physics lesson
where some argued that 2 such things could not exist in this universe and some believed
that one or both actually could. Even exist in harmony with each other. Take a look:

In order for a force to be unstoppable, it would have to have infinite energy.
Although beyond our human comprehension, the limit of universal energy is finite (fixed).
We can't put a number on it because...
Hi Toshi-

Thanks for the interesting reply. I don't think your full of it. Just a couple of things to say:

-my use of those words was of course just more in the way of an approximate metaphor for the situation we are looking at-very persistent bull force vs. a historically tough and probably financially guarded price barrier.

-following your two solutions in a more strict and scientific analysis and trying to apply it to the current situation doesn't make much sense simply because PA can't dimensionally shift through 4300, or move around it to higher levels without passing through it. Abstract forces and quantities can do these things, but not price action.

-can you say that the bull force is unstoppable or 4300 impenetrable? No, I agree. You can just assess probabilty based on the information thats available to you. In FX its all possible. Thanks again.
  • #125,218
  • Jul 24, 2009 10:56pm Jul 24, 2009 10:56pm
Quoting stevefx
Hi Toshi-

Thanks for the interesting reply. I don't think your full of it. Just a couple of things to say:

-my use of those words was of course just more in the way of an approximate metaphor...... .

Yea, I know. it was just kind of a cool physics class flashback. For a moment I was an another dimension too.

Quoting stevefx
-following your two solutions in a more strict and scientific analysis and trying to
apply it to the current situation doesn't make much sense simply because PA can't
dimensionally shift through 4300, or move around it to higher levels without passing through it.
Abstract forces and quantities can do these things, but not price action.
Whoa ! That sounds like a GAP !!!! How 'bout it people. Anyone for a Sunday GAP ? ( hee hee)

Anyway, you're right. 14300 is a tough nut to crack.

When a market is trending, highs/lows get taken out rather quickly. When that trend has diminished,
it's common that one conspicous high or low point will stick out as a top or botom.
After a few days, or in this case a few weeks have passed, and no violation has occurred,
same said top becomes more significant.

Until someone says, "Yea, I'll buy 143, gimme all you got.." the top will hold.
I'm not that someone. I just ain't that brave. Anyway, thank you too.
  • #125,219
  • Jul 24, 2009 11:56pm Jul 24, 2009 11:56pm
Anyway,

Like many of you here, I too wonder about the future direction of the Euro.

So, I thought it would only make sense to ask the people who should know.
You know, the "people at the top". I decided to ask the President of the United States.

" Mr. President, what are your thoughts on the Euro currency, Sir ? "
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  • #125,220
  • Jul 24, 2009 11:57pm Jul 24, 2009 11:57pm
Wow. Didn't see that coming.....

Let's ask the ex-president. Maybe he knows a little more about it...


"Sir, your thoughts on the FX markets ? "
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