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EURUSD

  • #122,941
  • Jul 19, 2009 5:40pm Jul 19, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting Sam209a
have taken a postion yet?
I Waiting
  • #122,942
  • Jul 19, 2009 5:52pm Jul 19, 2009 5:52pm
Took long profit at 4135, for 21 pips. Who knows, we're in a tight range. Still hoping to open short over 4140.
  • #122,943
  • Jul 19, 2009 6:38pm Jul 19, 2009 6:38pm
Hello everybody. Hope you all had a great week-end.

Posting my weekly chart, with reference points.

Bears:
- Needs to break below the 1.4000 for a starter (psychological level)
- Needs to break below the 34ema channel of highs at 1.3882 (doted)
- Needs to break below the 1.3748 swing point #Sw129 that has acted as support in W25 (this point is where the bears lost control, so it's very important imho)
- Needs to break below the 1.3833 low made in W28 (would be a 3 candles reversal)
- If bears manage to get there then this would open the possibility for the 200sma testing at 1.3502 and then after the w21 candle's low at 1.3424

Bulls:
- Needs to get the w27 1.4201 high
- Needs to get the 1.4339 #Sw239 Swing point who would open the door for a test of the 1.4719 @Sw518 Swing point
- Target would be 1.4698 before the swing point 1.4719, where the bears would capitulate.

If we should ever take the 1.4719, it's not out of the cards that we could get back in the big range and retrace most of the 1.4719-1.2330 swing, instead of continuing climbing. This would then be a double dip scenario play.

Time will tell, but I'm favoring this scenario...

This is on a weekly chart so this will take time to unfold, but direction and reference points are what I'm using.
This is from this chart that I'm taking my bias, and, until the bears can a least regain control below 1.3748, I will only take long trades.

See you for the European open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Weekly 7-20-2009 12-16-21 AM.png Size: 64 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #122,944
  • Jul 19, 2009 6:55pm Jul 19, 2009 6:55pm
Quoting stevefx
Took long profit at 4135, for 21 pips. Who knows, we're in a tight range. Still hoping to open short over 4140.
Also had a tp at .4135. Looking to place another short-term long again on a dip.
  • #122,945
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:07pm Jul 19, 2009 7:07pm
Quoting stevefx
Happy hunting this week fellow traders. I've wanted to see the Euro tank for the last week now. The consensus is we can expect more ranging between 4150 and 3960. Is a break of 4150 in the cards? I am a big picture bear but I won't count it out.

At market open my trade is long looking to close at 4145 to 4150. Charts analysis seems to support this. Best bet at the top of the range is to open shorts-be tentative. Up til now shorts at 4140 or better have been money in the bank, but you never know. Looking to open short at 4150.
Break of 4180 would...

Most of the 1.415 shorts by big banks and china are option related so once those contracts are over which is last week, I believe we will see a break up to 1.43 this week...so if i were you i will short there right now scalping ony
  • #122,946
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:11pm Jul 19, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting essenza
Most of the 1.415 shorts by big banks and china are option related so once those contracts are over which is last week, I believe we will see a break up to 1.43 this week...so if i were you i will short there right now scalping ony
Yes you always have the good info on the chinese , i am tentative and cautious at this level...just playing the history...good luck this week.
  • #122,947
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:22pm Jul 19, 2009 7:22pm
I fink EU today go Up.. ~1.4250 (Andrews Pitchfork H4 chart)
  • #122,948
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:25pm Jul 19, 2009 7:25pm
come on short, Come on daddy
  • #122,949
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:34pm Jul 19, 2009 7:34pm
The more I watch the euro, the more I am beginning to think that it is going to conitinue upward.
  • #122,950
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:35pm Jul 19, 2009 7:35pm
Happy to be back at .4140 level tonight
Can it stick?
Fxswing thanks for your analysis, I was also going long at the .4070 level last Friday a.m. (premarket US session) - I believe u did too.

Many anticipated US market to turn and sell after Wednesday into Op Ex, that didn't happen, I think there are a quite a few going short into Monday session and after. Markets like to have as many on the wrong side as possible?!

Onward to .42, .43
----- Dragonfly out in the sun you know what I mean, don't you know
  • #122,951
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:35pm Jul 19, 2009 7:35pm
am short 1.4143
Tiny Polar Bear from Poland
  • #122,952
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:35pm Jul 19, 2009 7:35pm
sell this thing
ROBOT FOREX
  • #122,953
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:39pm Jul 19, 2009 7:39pm
Got my short in a 4145. Market movers have been the Asians, namely the Chinese. They don't get on til 10pm, and usually don't do anything til 2AM. I would want to close my short position before 2 AM for sure.
  • #122,954
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:41pm Jul 19, 2009 7:41pm
Quoting sophiaphia
Happy to be back at .4140 level tonight
Can it stick?
Fxswing thanks for your analysis, I was also going long at the .4070 level last Friday a.m. (premarket US session) - I believe u did too.

Many anticipated US market to turn and sell after Wednesday into Op Ex, that didn't happen, I think there are a quite a few going short into Monday session and after. Markets like to have as many on the wrong side as possible?!

Onward to .42, .43
could not agree with you more. And this makes trading very easy. Find out what the majority of traders are going to do and simply just trade the opposite way .
  • #122,955
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:45pm Jul 19, 2009 7:45pm
Did you forget the Aussies and Kiwies dude?

Quoting stevefx
Got my short in a 4145. Market movers have been the Asians, namely the Chinese. They don't get on til 10pm, and usually don't do anything til 2AM. I would want to close my short position before 2 AM for sure.
Its all in the mind.
  • #122,956
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:48pm Jul 19, 2009 7:48pm
Quoting 5abi
Did you forget the Aussies and Kiwies dude?
Not forgetting them but big bull moves have been happening just after they have shut down for the day.
  • #122,957
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:49pm Jul 19, 2009 7:49pm
I short entry
1,4145
1,4143
  • #122,958
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:50pm Jul 19, 2009 7:50pm
well that is cuz when they shut shop London comes in. and that is when Euro and Pound really wake up

Quoting stevefx
Not forgetting them but big bull moves have been happening just after they have shut down for the day.
Its all in the mind.
  • #122,959
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:51pm Jul 19, 2009 7:51pm
.4125 very soon.

The pivot point before the US Session begins.

m
  • #122,960
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:54pm Jul 19, 2009 7:54pm
Quoting 5abi
well that is cuz when they shut shop London comes in. and that is when Euro and Pound really wake up
London opens at 3am et, moves have been happening at 1:45 to 2:30.
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