- #122,922
- Jul 19, 2009 11:00am Jul 19, 2009 11:00am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
Current technical analysis....we are approaching a major support/resistance level at 1.4060 (see chart). This level will determine in my mind whether today will be a bull or bear day...as long as it holds...bulls are in control...if it breaks...bears ba da bing ba da boom. Chances are we may even get a h&s out of this whole thing if pa breaks south (to be determined later next week).
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Good pippin all
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #122,923
- Jul 19, 2009 11:02am Jul 19, 2009 11:02am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Technical Artist | 1,609 Posts
I have also made a lot of money in EURO-USD, especially doing the opposite of what majority does out here 
Trust me that is the best indicator out there is. When most of the the small traders are long, you go short and vice versa.
Trust me that is the best indicator out there is. When most of the the small traders are long, you go short and vice versa.
It sure is.. as a matter of fact, much of the money I made on my mini trader account can be attributed to sound advice that I received from good people on this forum.
Its all in the mind.
- #122,924
- Jul 19, 2009 1:08pm Jul 19, 2009 1:08pm
I have also made a lot of money in EURO-USD, especially doing the opposite of what majority does out here
Trust me that is the best indicator out there is. When most of the the small traders are long, you go short and vice versa.
- #122,925
- Jul 19, 2009 1:25pm Jul 19, 2009 1:25pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Technical Artist | 1,609 Posts
Its all in the mind.
5abi, you were pretty on target predicting the bullishness last week from quarterly earnings reports. Do you have any opinions on the outlook this week, for the Dow, as well as Euro and Gbp/Usd? Would be interested to hear....
- #122,927
- Jul 19, 2009 1:54pm Jul 19, 2009 1:54pm
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
The average yearly range calculated over the last nine years (2000 - 2008) has been 2,099 pips. 2009's range so far has been 1,892 pips (low of 1.2456 and high of 1.4348).
The average weekly range over the last eight weeks since we entered this consolidation (from 24/05/09 to date) is 313 pips.
Let the Euro take a bath today please - I've got a couple of short soldiers out there (it must be a bit sweaty anyway after all that pushing up)
The average weekly range over the last eight weeks since we entered this consolidation (from 24/05/09 to date) is 313 pips.
Let the Euro take a bath today please - I've got a couple of short soldiers out there (it must be a bit sweaty anyway after all that pushing up)
Nothing worth having is easy.
Good evening.
I expect small (very small) price movements on Asia session as banks from Japan will be closed in observance of Marine Day, so I suggest not to take any trade. Wait for European session, though given the fact that there are no important news I wouldn't expect large movements either. Can't actually figure out how many of you state that the price will go up. It may go up but for only about 100 pips as you see on the chart. There is quite a strong resistance. If you look on the hourly chart you will see a lot of pin bars on the 16th of July. That means that somebody is selling in that area, doesn't it? Moreover, the last daily bar has very small up shadow and closing price is at the middle of the bar. Usually (not always, but usually) those shadows are "filled" by next bar. So it's more likely to go down for at least 30 pips untill the next weak support is touched. If that is broken it should reach 1.3960ish.
Overall, it may be a very boooring day
. Probably it will go up, then down and up again with close almost equal with open so that everybody be happy. But don't sell when it goes up, close when runs out of steam, buy to cover loss so that you can see how trend changes, and close when runs out of steam 
.
Remember: buy on bottoms(supports), sell on tops(resistances). Now where nearby a top (daily resistances are strong; most of you trade on less than daily, probably 4h and 1 h so take into consideration this). Why would you buy, unless for a scalp which is not recommended today: holiday + no news.
Wish you all a successful day.
I expect small (very small) price movements on Asia session as banks from Japan will be closed in observance of Marine Day, so I suggest not to take any trade. Wait for European session, though given the fact that there are no important news I wouldn't expect large movements either. Can't actually figure out how many of you state that the price will go up. It may go up but for only about 100 pips as you see on the chart. There is quite a strong resistance. If you look on the hourly chart you will see a lot of pin bars on the 16th of July. That means that somebody is selling in that area, doesn't it? Moreover, the last daily bar has very small up shadow and closing price is at the middle of the bar. Usually (not always, but usually) those shadows are "filled" by next bar. So it's more likely to go down for at least 30 pips untill the next weak support is touched. If that is broken it should reach 1.3960ish.
Overall, it may be a very boooring day
. Probably it will go up, then down and up again with close almost equal with open so that everybody be happy. But don't sell when it goes up, close when runs out of steam, buy to cover loss so that you can see how trend changes, and close when runs out of steam .Remember: buy on bottoms(supports), sell on tops(resistances). Now where nearby a top (daily resistances are strong; most of you trade on less than daily, probably 4h and 1 h so take into consideration this). Why would you buy, unless for a scalp which is not recommended today: holiday + no news.
Wish you all a successful day.
- #122,929
- Jul 19, 2009 2:17pm Jul 19, 2009 2:17pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Technical Artist | 1,609 Posts
BlueGrass,
There are many things I look at; and after looking at many things, all I can say is that I am not bearish on this pair yet However the daily TF has shown me weakness ever since we touched 43is levels at begin of June. But that could also mean that it is slinging around for a shoot upwards from here. We closed at around 4100, heading down, so I would try to fill a long when I see some kind of reversal take place on my H4.
Having said that, I am going to be bullish on this pair as long as 3750 supports it. I am not attaching much weight to the earnings this week as I was last week just because I watch the Goldmen, BofA, Citibank (big banking) numbers more closely, but fundamentally the home sale numbers will be very important. Again, people have bought homes this summer so expect this to go higher pushing EU higher.
If I were to pick a number for this week, I would say 1.4300
On the downside 3900-3850.
There are many things I look at; and after looking at many things, all I can say is that I am not bearish on this pair yet
However the daily TF has shown me weakness ever since we touched 43is levels at begin of June. But that could also mean that it is slinging around for a shoot upwards from here. We closed at around 4100, heading down, so I would try to fill a long when I see some kind of reversal take place on my H4. Having said that, I am going to be bullish on this pair as long as 3750 supports it. I am not attaching much weight to the earnings this week as I was last week just because I watch the Goldmen, BofA, Citibank (big banking) numbers more closely, but fundamentally the home sale numbers will be very important. Again, people have bought homes this summer so expect this to go higher pushing EU higher.
If I were to pick a number for this week, I would say 1.4300
On the downside 3900-3850. 5abi, you were pretty on target predicting the bullishness last week from quarterly earnings reports. Do you have any opinions on the outlook this week, for the Dow, as well as Euro and Gbp/Usd? Would be interested to hear....
Its all in the mind.
- #122,931
- Jul 19, 2009 2:38pm Jul 19, 2009 2:38pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Technical Artist | 1,609 Posts
...one more thing, oil came down hard about 12-14 % while EU pretty much maintained it's cool. So that could be another sign that an upside may occur.
But whatever happens, up or down, see it ASAP, react fast and make pips, just wish that it does not stink sideways
But whatever happens, up or down, see it ASAP, react fast and make pips, just wish that it does not stink sideways
I see another week of ranging. When you look at last week, the selling pressure didn't seem to be there. Euro didn't sell down hard from 1.41 area the way it had in the past. Price seemed to just hang around until any signs of stock market bullishness happened, then it would go up. This leads me to believe we may see more Euro upside, as well. I think we may see a selldown to 1.4050 or so, tonite, but I'm not really looking for a big selloff, yet.
Basically, I'm moderately bullish this week as long as 1.40 holds.
Its all in the mind.
- #122,933
- Jul 19, 2009 4:07pm Jul 19, 2009 4:07pm
- | Joined Apr 2008 | Status: J16 Turtle | 1,572 Posts
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
