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Attachments: 0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy
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0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

  • #21
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:50am Jul 19, 2009 7:50am
Quoting zuret9
I was going by what was written and not the charts. However, the charts should show a 3hour band as that is what was quoted (imo)!!!

Z
I agree with Bill that the charts show the 7.00gmt candle included in the range(7 candles includedin range). Thus giving entry after its completion 3 1/2 hrs
  • #22
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:56am Jul 19, 2009 7:56am
Quoting FOURX
I agree with Bill that the charts show the 7.00gmt candle included in the range. Thus giving entry after its completion 3 1/2 hrs
The strategy is very simple. Draw two lines....4am-7am (high or low). When price action breaks this line either way, you enter the trade.

You DO NOT WAIT 30mins (7.30am) to enter a trade! If price action breaks the line drawn at 7.01am you enter the trade then. It's no different to other breakout methodologies?!?

I just wanted to know the logic behind selecting a 3hour band?

Z
  • #23
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:29am Jul 19, 2009 8:29am
Quoting zuret9
The strategy is very simple. Draw two lines....4am-7am (high or low). When price action breaks this line either way, you enter the trade.

You DO NOT WAIT 30mins (7.30am) to enter a trade! If price action breaks the line drawn at 7.01am you enter the trade then. It's no different to other breakout methodologies?!?

I just wanted to know the logic behind selecting a 3hour band?

Z
You WAIT FOR 30 mins to enter a trade. Please look at the example given on 1st post and figure that out yourself. I think u are confused.
  • #24
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:56am Jul 19, 2009 8:56am
Quoting forexisfx
You WAIT FOR 30 mins to enter a trade. Please look at the example given on 1st post and figure that out yourself. I think u are confused.
yes, the charts show that.

it's the same like in the original "big dog" thread where the candle from 9.00 to 9.15 is included.
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #25
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:04am Jul 19, 2009 9:04am
Quoting FOURX
I agree with Bill that the charts show the 7.00gmt candle included in the range(7 candles includedin range). Thus giving entry after its completion 3 1/2 hrs
You are correct.
Just glancing back for a week or two it appears it would do better by ending the box at 0700 rather than 0730, or one bar shorter than the box he is showing.

London opens at 0700 GMT. There is usually a big move at this time. That movement could be used in making profit.

I'm not ready to say this would be better, I didn't really test it, but it's something that should be looked at.
  • #26
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:07am Jul 19, 2009 9:07am
Quoting billbss
You are correct.
Just glancing back for a week or two it appears it would do better by ending the box at 0700 rather than 0730, or one bar shorter than the box he is showing.

London opens at 0700 GMT. There is usually a big move at this time. That movement could be used in making profit.

I'm not ready to say this would be better, I didn't really test it, but it's something that should be looked at.
yes you are right. I did some back test for a few months [eye balling each and every trade and write down the profit and loss] and it turns out using 1M is better than using 30M. Using 1M means u will start placing limit order once it's 7:01 whereas using 30M u will start placing limit order once it's 7:30

1M has smaller SL and it enter the trade earlier to catch the 30 pips
  • #27
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:15am Jul 19, 2009 9:15am
voting so far for 13 against 3

now if any of the 3 who voted against can you please explain why for this looks good so far

also about mm for this the reason am asking is you are at times risking 90 pip range to profit 30 so Risk to Reward is 3;1 ( i hope i got that right )
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #28
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:26am Jul 19, 2009 9:26am
Quoting maq
voting so far for 13 against 3

now if any of the 3 who voted against can you please explain why for this looks good so far

also about mm for this the reason am asking is you are at times risking 90 pip range to profit 30 so Risk to Reward is 3;1 ( i hope i got that right )
If u want high hit rate , you don't really care about the risk to reward. If u strictly place 1:1 RR , u will get much lower hit rate and get killed in tight ranging market. Having a 30tp will help fence off some lost [gain 30pips in fact] during ranging market.

I voted against , this is my style. Whenever there is a thread that ask for poll , i will choose the worst one without reading the thread first.
  • #29
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:30am Jul 19, 2009 9:30am
Quoting maq
voting so far for 13 against 3

now if any of the 3 who voted against can you please explain why for this looks good so far

also about mm for this the reason am asking is you are at times risking 90 pip range to profit 30 so Risk to Reward is 3;1 ( i hope i got that right )
Risk/Reward can be 3:1 if there is a high enough win rate.
I don't know whether there is or not.
  • #30
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:31am Jul 19, 2009 9:31am
Quoting billbss
Risk/Reward can be 3:1 if there is a high enough win rate.
I don't know whether there is or not.
I don't really like high RR becoz it will always get killed in ranging market.
  • #31
  • Edited 9:47am Jul 19, 2009 9:34am | Edited 9:47am
my backtest result looks good [backtest include trending and ranging market] , I will go live on Monday since this system is very straight forward [no need price action , no need pivot level , no need trend line] and backtest is 100% correct without any repaint INDICATOR. I am not following exactly as per post #1 becoz it's less profitable than the one i have thought of and backtested but I am following the core of 4-7 highest high lowest low break out.
  • #32
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:36am Jul 19, 2009 9:36am
Quoting forexisfx
I voted against , this is my style. Whenever there is a thread that ask for poll , i will choose the worst one without reading the thread first.
just to be curious, but why?
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #33
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:40am Jul 19, 2009 9:40am
Quoting aserbfx
just to be curious, but why?
Polling is just an ego thing for the thread starter. I don't like to fuel the thread starter ego.
  • #34
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:48am Jul 19, 2009 9:48am
Quoting billbss
He also includes the 0700 - 0730 bar.
you are right about bars that i share on first page. mostly it doesn't change buy and sell orders but sometimes it may cause stoplosses. it is because of box breakout indicator that includes last bar for bands. i use m30 chart and enter orders after 07:30 bar closed.

for ex. on jul 8 i use m30 chart and enter orders after 7:30gmt so buy order didnt hit and i close the day without sl.
but if i had use m15 or m5 chart i would have entered orders at 7:15gmt and buy order did hit and i would have lost the day.


http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/4664/8jul1.png

http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/2573/8jul2.png
  • #35
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:01am Jul 19, 2009 10:01am
your backtesting is 4.00- 7.30 gmt and start trading at 7.31gmt?


Quoting tasciy
you are right about bars that i share on first page. mostly it doesn't change buy and sell orders but sometimes it may cause stoplosses. it is because of box breakout indicator that includes last bar for bands. i use m30 chart and enter orders after 07:30 bar closed.

for ex. on jul 8 i use m30 chart and enter orders after 7:30gmt so buy order didnt hit and i close the day without sl.
but if i had use m15 or m5 chart i would have entered orders at 7:15gmt and buy order did hit and i would have lost the day.
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #36
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:04am Jul 19, 2009 10:04am
Quoting forexisfx
my backtest result looks good [backtest include trending and ranging market] , I will go live on Monday since this system is very straight forward [no need price action , no need pivot level , no need trend line] and backtest is 100% correct without any repaint INDICATOR. I am not following exactly as per post #1 becoz it's less profitable than the one i have thought of and backtested but I am following the core of 4-7 highest high lowest low break out.
How about PMing me what you are doing?
I don't want to derail the thread with it, but I would like to know. I'm going to try to do some backtesting today on it.
Thank you,
  • #37
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:07am Jul 19, 2009 10:07am
I share this thread for people to find out optimum strategy for london open. I usually dont use any kind of indicator. I draw lines at 0700 and 1000 at my local time (gmt+2) and also look H1 H4 charts to find out strong R/S s. And if I am convinced I enter my buy and sell orders. After 30pips I move stop to b/e point and after 60 pips I watch for more profits. If trend is still strong I move TP to 90pip or more.

I share my strategy with fixed settings to show that is proitable. but it is up to you how to optimize that. But worst of all is useing with only single 30pip tp and it is still very profitable. I backtested with single 30pip TP for 4months and share the results. and it is clear that this strategy could be more profitable.
I also tested 30pip and 60pip b/e system and see that it is more proitable. If you can watch charts all day you can use trailing stops or use another indicators or exit signals.
  • #38
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:21am Jul 19, 2009 10:21am
Quoting forexisfx
I voted against , this is my style. Whenever there is a thread that ask for poll , i will choose the worst one without reading the thread first.
there are hundereds of new threads on forexfactory and i thought that adding poll is good to attract attention. my ego could be fueled by earning some money. and goal of all us is same. i suggest you to read the thread and gain some more money.
  • #39
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:26am Jul 19, 2009 10:26am
Quoting maq
your backtesting is 4.00- 7.30 gmt and start trading at 7.31gmt?
yes, i tested 4:00-7:30 but in real account i use 4:00-7:00 or 4:00-8:00 or whenever i wake up. and i also use other pairs not only g/u. i will post results of other pairs.
  • #40
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:30am Jul 19, 2009 10:30am
Quoting tasciy
there are hundereds of new threads on forexfactory and i thought that adding poll is good to attract attention. my ego could be fueled by earning some money. and goal of all us is same. i suggest you to read the thread and gain some more money.
I'm just saying generally since I don't know you personally
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