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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #19,301
  • Jul 17, 2009 4:12pm Jul 17, 2009 4:12pm
Quoting Turtle
Any EJ traders out there, especially PippiNole, please chime in.

Waiting for the break of the TL either way, also do I see an IB......

Thoughts.......

Okay, I posted my quota of charts for the week.......Now it's time to drink that beer and have a discussion with Bob.

HOLLA
Hi Turtle..

i am only going by the charts you have posted,and i DONT cheat by having a Mistress...
so...
i would look for a FALSE B/O on one of those trend lines, ie a shakeout of weak hands....and wait for a PA on the Daily or 4 hr..

By the way all the best with your education.........man i admire you,because i find it a DRAG to even read instructions on a new Hoover !!!

all the best buddy..

baz
  • #19,302
  • Jul 17, 2009 4:16pm Jul 17, 2009 4:16pm
and you think we go thru STRESS........a link from STRATs thread

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...-in-a-day.html

baz
  • #19,303
  • Jul 17, 2009 5:01pm Jul 17, 2009 5:01pm
Quoting baz
Hi Turtle..

i am only going by the charts you have posted,and i DONT cheat by having a Mistress...
so...
i would look for a FALSE B/O on one of those trend lines, ie a shakeout of weak hands....and wait for a PA on the Daily or 4 hr..

By the way all the best with your education.........man i admire you,because i find it a DRAG to even read instructions on a new Hoover !!!

all the best buddy..

baz
Thanks bro.......

I could see a test if those TL and a bounce back inside the channel. I will wait for PA to confirm.

Education, yeah I'm gonna start slow (haven't been to school since 1985) and will work my way slowly along like a Turtle.

HOLLA
  • #19,304
  • Jul 18, 2009 3:43am Jul 18, 2009 3:43am
Attached is a daily chart. I did mention last week that it would be unlikely to have a dramatic plummet from an oversold stochastic, the day stochs have come up now and they look primed and ready for a fall. In addition we have bearish divergence with the stochastics as prices made a lower high, but the stochastics failed to make a lower high as well.

There is also have a bearish reversal candlestick pattern right at the upper trendline and the day closed candlestick appears to be a hanging man, could do with a longer tail though.

Based on the above , the week should be down, but if a day candlestick closes above the upper trendline, then this wold invalidate the down position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,305
  • Edited 4:17pm Jul 18, 2009 2:45pm | Edited 4:17pm
My EJ Daily Chart. As you can see I have only drawn two major trend lines and I have also drawn 6 horizontal lines that are areas of S/R. The Mistress has been stuck the last couple of days between the 131.80 and 133.40 area. Looking at the chart it should be pretty obvious why. This price range also corresponds with the 38% and 50% Fib levels of the swing from the top around 139.00 and the bottom at 127.00. Where will she go from here? Well Fridays candle is pretty much a spinning top or indecisive candle in my opinion. I will look towards the lower time frames but will definitely keep the area of intersection of the trend lines(134.80-135.00) in mind for an area to look for a possible short, always letting LTF PA determine point of entry. I will also keep the areas of S/R in mind and how price acts in those areas for possible trades.
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  • #19,306
  • Jul 18, 2009 8:39pm Jul 18, 2009 8:39pm
GodfreyH and PippiNole, thanks for your insights.

HOLLA
  • #19,307
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:08am Jul 19, 2009 10:08am
My daily down to h1 looks quite bearish with the bottom of the h4 channel looking a likely target... arount 6150ish... however the weekly chart is showing another bounce off the 10ema and we also closed above the 5/10/50 on that tf...Also, on the weekly, I see a higher low and higher high...

So... I will be looking for shorts based on lower tf pa with the bottom of the h4 channel in mind and then I will be watching how price reacts in that area.... if it holds, we could have a nice long back to the top of the channel....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: week.gif Size: 34 KB
Attached Image
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #19,308
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:19am Jul 19, 2009 10:19am
H1 view... maybe...
http://tbn3.google.com/images?q=tbn:...R9OZO-1-lg.jpg
Attached Image
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #19,309
  • Jul 19, 2009 2:41pm Jul 19, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting Infinity
My daily down to h1 looks quite bearish with the bottom of the h4 channel looking a likely target... arount 6150ish... however the weekly chart is showing another bounce off the 10ema and we also closed above the 5/10/50 on that tf...Also, on the weekly, I see a higher low and higher high...

So... I will be looking for shorts based on lower tf pa with the bottom of the h4 channel in mind and then I will be watching how price reacts in that area.... if it holds, we could have a nice long back to the top of the channel....
Thanks Everyone for your insights... and let's have a great week...
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #19,310
  • Jul 19, 2009 3:48pm Jul 19, 2009 3:48pm
How about this?
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  • #19,311
  • Jul 19, 2009 4:31pm Jul 19, 2009 4:31pm
Quoting Infinity
My daily down to h1 looks quite bearish with the bottom of the h4 channel looking a likely target... arount 6150ish... however the weekly chart is showing another bounce off the 10ema and we also closed above the 5/10/50 on that tf...Also, on the weekly, I see a higher low and higher high...

So... I will be looking for shorts based on lower tf pa with the bottom of the h4 channel in mind and then I will be watching how price reacts in that area.... if it holds, we could have a nice long back to the top of the channel....

Nice job bro......

We are on the same page, that's why I still got my one short open and covered @ 6403.

With Japan on holiday, would like to see where she sits tomorrow around 6:30am........under 6200 maybe, anything is possible.....

HOLLA
  • #19,312
  • Jul 19, 2009 4:33pm Jul 19, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting Shilva
How about this?
I'll take a H & S also......

HOLLA
  • #19,313
  • Jul 19, 2009 6:36pm Jul 19, 2009 6:36pm
Something else to think about for GU. 1 hr. chart.

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  • #19,314
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:07pm Jul 19, 2009 7:07pm
i played the 50sma on 1h to hold as resistance...short at 6373
  • #19,315
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:30pm Jul 19, 2009 7:30pm
Quoting Infinity
My daily down to h1 looks quite bearish with the bottom of the h4 channel looking a likely target... arount 6150ish... however the weekly chart is showing another bounce off the 10ema and we also closed above the 5/10/50 on that tf...Also, on the weekly, I see a higher low and higher high...

So... I will be looking for shorts based on lower tf pa with the bottom of the h4 channel in mind and then I will be watching how price reacts in that area.... if it holds, we could have a nice long back to the top of the channel....
Got in the short at 6379.. stop just above the h4 pin...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #19,316
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:04pm Jul 19, 2009 8:04pm
Ken did you get any of the long on the Mistress? I got in a little late off the 10ema at 133.09.
  • #19,317
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:10pm Jul 19, 2009 8:10pm
eu is dragging this baby up with it...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #19,318
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:12pm Jul 19, 2009 8:12pm
Quoting PippiNole
Ken did you get any of the long on the Mistress? I got in a little late off the 10ema at 133.09.

No missed it waiting for to possiblly turn now. S/R on 4hr
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #19,319
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:14pm Jul 19, 2009 8:14pm
Quoting KENNETH lEE
No missed it waiting for to possiblly turn now. S/R on 4hr
I see that resistance. I took some profit at 133.80.
  • #19,320
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:16pm Jul 19, 2009 8:16pm
Quoting PippiNole
Something else to think about for GU. 1 hr. chart.

Attachment
Nice chart Pippi... I have it on my chart as well.... we are currently outside of the channel but I'm watching this next h1 close carefully... my short would like to see it close inside the channel..
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
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