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Popee83 System

  • #561
  • Jul 14, 2009 12:41pm Jul 14, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting DOVOFreak
On that Reminiscences of A Stock Operator ebook.

I have read many times other also recommending this book and I just finished the 1st chapter. I'll spend some time reading this over the week.

EU is ranging in a wedge now so I am staying aside until it breakout.
Have been looking at the daily S&R ... am still bearish ... the north flip earlier witnessed did not tickle Fiber(EU) but only cable. The R on daily is now in place for both pairs and it is mid way the previous R highs .. this is very bearish in the bigger picture ...


Looking at the daily S90 of cable at 1.5351. This is a gap that must be filled either way ... With fiber ... am looking at the daily S90 at first1.3722 and then possibly the S90 R cum S at 1.3437. The break of the ever elusive 1.3826 will confirm this drop.

So am careful being bullish any flips in range trading. I believe it is a bear mkt in general .. looking for DJIA to shed upto 7800 S region ... then we could see a major rally breaking all the previous highs from the sideways trading ....
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #562
  • Jul 14, 2009 2:31pm Jul 14, 2009 2:31pm
Quoting DOVOFreak

EU is ranging in a wedge now so I am staying aside until it breakout.
Try this out ...

Add the Indi. and the templates ... works best at m30 Tf. Spud fibo this one and have tweaked it a little ... good for short term trend scalps - shows the short term trends well enough ...

So, all the best ...
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 fibo-gann-variations-spudfibo.mq4   5 KB | 359 downloads
File Type: mq4 FIBO_S.mq4   10 KB | 341 downloads
File Type: tpl fib_thv_fibo-s_bestfit.tpl   18 KB | 304 downloads
File Type: tpl fib_thv_fibo-s_spud.tpl   18 KB | 300 downloads
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #563
  • Jul 15, 2009 1:21am Jul 15, 2009 1:21am
Thanks Pop for the new template. This one shows the S & R level clearly enough.

I'll have to read up on spud fibo a bit then.

Just miss the entry for the breakout while setting up the template. Well wait for another opportunity then.
  • #564
  • Jul 15, 2009 1:30am Jul 15, 2009 1:30am
Quoting Popee83
Have been looking at the daily S&R ... am still bearish ... the north flip earlier witnessed did not tickle Fiber(EU) but only cable. The R on daily is now in place for both pairs and it is mid way the previous R highs .. this is very bearish in the bigger picture ...


Looking at the daily S90 of cable at 1.5351. This is a gap that must be filled either way ... With fiber ... am looking at the daily S90 at first1.3722 and then possibly the S90 R cum S at 1.3437. The break of the ever elusive 1.3826 will confirm this drop.

So am careful being...
Fiber and Cable decided to flip north after the breakout.

Fiber has not reached m-fibo 0.618 and Cable touches x-fibo 0.50. There is potential for Fiber to reach daily R if this trend continue today, while Cable already reached daily R now.

Just watching the spud fibo template now but not trading at the moment.
  • #565
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:01am Jul 15, 2009 2:01am
Looking at Fiber 4H TF now, it is going to touch 1.4071 which will form a triple top. That level is also the daily R in the 30m TF Spud fibo template so would that send Fiber back down to at least 1.4020 which is the 50% retracement for this north move?

Watching the chart now.
  • #566
  • Jul 15, 2009 3:32pm Jul 15, 2009 3:32pm
Quoting DOVOFreak
Looking at Fiber 4H TF now, it is going to touch 1.4071 which will form a triple top. That level is also the daily R in the 30m TF Spud fibo template so would that send Fiber back down to at least 1.4020 which is the 50% retracement for this north move?

Watching the chart now.
The US financial s are pushing these two up ... We haven't seen the topping out yet ... meanwhile, we set our eyes north, seems so long for my bearish wagon ...

Try looking at this ... put up Fibo-X on daily chart for cable and fiber. Zoom in and examine carefully the trending behavior the daily candles. Also add sidus and ascend indi. Interesting stuff now we see ...

Then also look at the h4 for both using the very same parameters. I love fibo_x for its ability to sub-divide larger time frames.


we risk the possibility of breaking the roofs on these two ...
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #567
  • Jul 16, 2009 1:34pm Jul 16, 2009 1:34pm
Quoting Popee83

we risk the possibility of breaking the roofs on these two ...
New highs for fiber and cable? ... Great potential seen here.

Fibo_x works best at h4 and Daily. At H4, we can fiber aiming for +61.8 = 1.4218 and cable looking to break +38.4 = 1.6529 first and possibly even higher.

Coral also bullish at h4 for both pairs. ..... Am dealing big lots now ... hope we get out of the sideways trading seen on the daily charts .. but NOTE the breakout will favor the north ... the longer term bull mkt could continue...

So, if you still scalp m5 ... all the best when you have the larger picture in mind. The earnings in the US IBs could sustain a long-term bull rally genuinely for starters surprisingly.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #568
  • Jul 16, 2009 2:54pm Jul 16, 2009 2:54pm
Quickly approaching the psycho .. 946 level ... now at 942. :nerd: .. The bulls have taken over the game ...
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #569
  • Jul 16, 2009 3:09pm Jul 16, 2009 3:09pm
Roubini Now Says The Worst Of Economic Crisis Is Over ......

Nouriel Roubini, the economist whose dire forecasts earned him the nickname "Doctor Doom," is now saying that the worst of the economic and financial crisis may be over.
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section...ni_nouriel.jpg

CNBC.com

Nouriel Roubini

The New York University professor was quoted by Reuters on Thursday as saying that the economy would emerge from the recession toward the end of 2009.
His comments helped trigger a late rally in the stock market.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #570
  • Edited Jul 17, 2009 6:35am Jul 16, 2009 4:15pm | Edited Jul 17, 2009 6:35am
Quoting DOVOFreak
Fiber and Cable decided to flip north after the breakout.

Fiber has not reached m-fibo 0.618 and Cable touches x-fibo 0.50. There is potential for Fiber to reach daily R if this trend continue today, while Cable already reached daily R now.

Just watching the spud fibo template now but not trading at the moment.

Some good reading here. I do want to mention a couple things though to consider for your analysis:

Cable has reached 61 retracement on daily charts from previous swing low- where there wasn't a higher hish--PA broke through it, but didn't close above it.

Right now, we are seeing a test on very low volume back up to today's high. Big Money's doing a little sneaky work here to get the best prices to go short. Notice the very low volume on the 4HR

A more convincing move North would be a retrace to the 1.6350-ish area with a firm rejection of that level. Break of this and the upside is over looking for consolidation to 61 percent of daily move to around 1.6200 or so
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp daily.jpg Size: 78 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp hour.jpg Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp 4hr.jpg Size: 95 KB
--- Gone --- RIP 11/27/09
  • #571
  • Jul 20, 2009 1:21pm Jul 20, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting IrishPips
Some good reading here. I do want to mention a couple things though to consider for your analysis:

Cable has reached 61 retracement on daily charts from previous swing low- where there wasn't a higher hish--PA broke through it, but didn't close above it.

Right now, we are seeing a test on very low volume back up to today's high. Big Money's doing a little sneaky work here to get the best prices to go short. Notice the very low volume on the 4HR

A more convincing move North would be a retrace to the 1.6350-ish area with a firm rejection of...
Hey man. Sorry for not responding to your mail soonest possible. I have looked back at the charts and clearly saw your point. That was a good observation since cable did indeed dip as you had suggested.

Earlier on I was talking about the general bull mkt minus the corrections. I had pushed my luck north with even larger lot rounds ... closed out now half the lots and still letting others run further ...

Attached were my projections on the RTF doc.

Hey DOVO ... wher on earth did AMS and Tracom go? If occupied much, we should brain storm range trading at least to determine the trends ...

Ams and Tracom ... if you're around kindly holla ....

some charts:

Fiber H4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber_h4.gif Size: 30 KB


Cable H4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_h4.gif Size: 27 KB


Gold H4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau_gold_h4.gif Size: 25 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Cable_Fiber_XAU.zip   569 KB | 385 downloads
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #572
  • Jul 20, 2009 5:47pm Jul 20, 2009 5:47pm
Quoting Popee83
Hey man. Sorry for not responding to your mail soonest possible. I have looked back at the charts and clearly saw your point. That was a good observation since cable did indeed dip as you had suggested.

Earlier on I was talking about the general bull mkt minus the corrections. I had pushed my luck north with even larger lot rounds ... closed out now half the lots and still letting others run further ...

Attached were my projections on the RTF doc.

Hey DOVO ... wher on earth did AMS and Tracom go? If occupied much, we should brain storm range...

It's OK-I enjoy reading your thread and about your system. I may not use your system to trade, but I like reading your analysis and how you come up with it [one of few people who can convey their thoughts conciesely through their charts making it easy to understand your views/analysis]

Good Trading to you
--- Gone --- RIP 11/27/09
  • #573
  • Jul 20, 2009 9:47pm Jul 20, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting IrishPips
It's OK-I enjoy reading your thread and about your system. I may not use your system to trade, but I like reading your analysis and how you come up with it [one of few people who can convey their thoughts conciesely through their charts making it easy to understand your views/analysis]

Good Trading to you

Really appreciate it man. Thanks. Am still sitting in tight on 0.2 lots on Cable and Fiber each ... not shaken by less than 0.382 Fibo-S PA reactions on H4 - and incase I loose, I re-enter at 0.618 downwards with larger lots to cover the reaction loses.

Eg.Fiber now at 1.4206, on H4 looking for breach of 1.4149 by 20 pips. ...next I have a 1 lot PO waiting to activate for 0.382 south to TP at 1.4072 to break even ... then wait for a more clearly defined direction .. If south towards fibo-S 0.618 node .. then I plunge in for a kill. By then, we will be looking at X-fibo 23.6 major node at 1.3878 for TP and stretch some luck towards 1.3232 low with smaller lots.

Meanwhile sitting tight to exhaust the bullish PA ... aiming for 100 levels on X-fib but carefully guarding against extreme PA reactions as explained.

My X-fibo settings at:
Automate=false
My Period=43200

chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber-ii_h4.gif Size: 31 KB


Template attached for new guys below for my H4 swings ....
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl fib_thv_fibo_x_bestfit.tpl   21 KB | 294 downloads
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #574
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:52pm Jul 22, 2009 9:52pm
"In the technical analysis of stocks Fibonacci numbers are commonly used to determine potential support, resistance, and price objectives.
A 38.2% retracement usually imply that the prior trend will continue, and are considered natural retracements in a healthy trend.
A 61.8% retracement imply a new trend is establishing itself.
A 50% retracement implies indecision."


http://www.trade-4x.com/fibonacci-analysis-overview.htm


So far a lot of sideway trading .. fiber holding on to gains pretty well, cable fluctuating here and there .... gold taken a pause ...

Still bullish ... I like the way the equities market is absorbing the not so good earning reports of some big companies in the US. But any slight good news, the mkt reacts positively.

Morgan Stanley disappointed. Anyways ... most other companies showing unexpected gains .. stabilization signs ... :nerd:

All the best to folks scalping the small reactions ....
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #575
  • Aug 2, 2009 1:37pm Aug 2, 2009 1:37pm
Cable_daily

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_daily.gif Size: 12 KB


Fiber_daily

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber_daily.gif Size: 12 KB


Gold_daily

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau_daily.gif Size: 12 KB


Green line are main fib levels and maroon are the retracements. All three going for the main fib resistance levels.

Cable: R at 1.7179

Fiber: R at 1.4562

Gold: R at 105.80

So, good luck and take care ....
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #576
  • Aug 2, 2009 2:29pm Aug 2, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting Popee83
Cable_daily

Attachment

Fiber_daily

Attachment

Gold_daily

Attachment

Green line are main fib levels and maroon are the retracements. All three going for the main fib resistance levels.

Cable: R at 1.7179

Fiber: R at 1.4562

Gold: R at 105.80

So, good luck and take care ....

Really deep retracements expected after we hit these levels:

Kindly take note that all the bourses around the world are over-ripe for a bumper harvest. Keep a close eye on the US futures Indices when the turn red for two consecutive days before the NY session open for tale-tale signs to close shop.

We expect really, and I mean really deep corrections of about 50%-61% should we hit these highs. The market possibly will accelerate at lightning speed to hit the new highs as soon as possible as most players will be pushing for greater profits and then a really serious pull-back will ensue.


Hence, caution is paramount. If still bullish as I am, dont forget the Futures indices for exit signals and then dive in south as far as possible...
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #577
  • Aug 3, 2009 1:12pm Aug 3, 2009 1:12pm
Good day to all folks who did a swing trade today. Just returned home to close some open trades. Closing shop soon. The sprint was faster than I had even anticipated.

My h4 charts:

Cable:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_h4.gif Size: 24 KB


Fiber:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber_h4.gif Size: 25 KB


Xau:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau_h4.gif Size: 23 KB



Gold still lagging behind.Looking for it to hit 979. Once we hit all the +38.2 R zones, it is good to fold then and just watch. A retracement here is healthy for a longer term bull mkt. If we pull through to the +61.8 R zones, then the W-shape recovery being talked about could easily occur. But +38.2 R deep corrections should discard that bearish long-term outlook. :nerd:

so, good trading. Opened new trades but to close as shown in charts.Good luck as we enjoy the 'Cash for Clunkers' euphoria.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #578
  • Aug 6, 2009 12:38pm Aug 6, 2009 12:38pm
Fiber: h4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber_h4_retracements.gif Size: 27 KB


Cable: h4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_h4_retracements.gif Size: 25 KB


Xau: h4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau_h4_retracements.gif Size: 25 KB



Careful now. The 38.2 S is crucial, but a retracement around the 61.8 will ring bells of deep retracements to the 138.2 S levels. I believe is it is a reversal, we should see a bullish injection at the 138.2 S levels. If a correction, the 38.2/50.0 S should suffice.

Good trading if swinging as I am, and all the best in tomorrow's NFP report. :nerd:
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #579
  • Aug 8, 2009 1:36pm Aug 8, 2009 1:36pm
Quote
I believe it is a reversal, we should see a bullish injection at the 138.2 S levels. If a correction, the 38.2/50.0 S should suffice.

The Impressive numbers from US NFP has actually smoked out traders from the safe havens and are now motivated to venture into the riskier stocks and dollar futures.

Hence: cable, fiber and gold are set for a major correction as indicated. I still believe the 138.2 S retracement levels indicated in earlier charts will be the ultimate turning points. :nerd:Of course there will be minor pullbacks but the short term trend on these pairs is bearish until the reversal is complete and the major global Indices correct. Great resistance expected at the 100.0 S however on cable (1.6341), fiber (1.4007) - (my short swing exits) and gold (925.41).

Cable:h4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_h4.gif Size: 27 KB


Fiber:h4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber_h4.gif Size: 29 KB


Xau: h4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau_h4.gif Size: 27 KB



I believe that one of the best analysis in the speculation industry is anticipating supply vs. demand and marrying this with "risk appetite".
The later, points further south for these pairs the coming week.

Remember: the mkts may go up, but due to the Dollar Index being strengthened by risk appetite at the same time ... cable and fiber will just have to drop.

I know I disagree with lots of folks in these forum but I just follow the tape ... and now it says go south .. the dollar index will rally next week ..



So, good trading y'all. I bet we'll learn the hard way.
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #580
  • Aug 9, 2009 2:45am Aug 9, 2009 2:45am
Quoting Popee83
The Impressive numbers from US NFP has actually smoked out traders from the safe havens and are now motivated to venture into the riskier stocks and dollar futures.

Hence: cable, fiber and gold are set for a major correction as indicated. I still believe the 138.2 S retracement levels indicated in earlier charts will be the ultimate turning points. :nerd:Of course there will be minor pullbacks but the...
Hi man. I have been reading your thread as aguest but i guess I just had to register. I admire your tech. analysis and fundamental thinking.

Now about cable n' fiber ( I dont do gold), looking at your swing charts ... 'am using ur template by the way' ... Why dont you think that we might get a soft landing at 61.8 X-fibo (green) line for fiber and 76.4 for cable?

Kindly advise on these. Still eager to learn to trade like a pro.from your swings analysis. Read 'Reminiscence of Stock Operator' - good pdf man, really appreciate it man.

Trade well next week.
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