USD/JPY Discussion | Page 650 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #12,981
  • Jul 11, 2009 8:52am Jul 11, 2009 8:52am
I think that usdjpy needed to correction in the next week before we should think of longer trends.

Oil too, it needs to consolidate after losing from 74 to 59. ok.
  • #12,982
  • Jul 11, 2009 9:01am Jul 11, 2009 9:01am
Quoting 5abi
Guys, that Cheap could be now, here. It all really depends on how the earning reports get received this week. Add to it the economic reports like housing and employment.

I have a feeling that these numbers are going to show improvement, and the earnings would not disappoint this month either. If I were to take a bet I would say this pair goes up. This quarter was not all that bad-better than Q1. The Pair dropped so that the big guys could have made a killing buy it back now. If that was not the case we would have not seen the kind of resistance...
I completely agree! I can imagine that a lot of traders now expect another short move. IMHO that won't happen (nor in the USD/JPY neither in the Aussie pairs). I mean you're right, the worst case is priced in, the expectations for the earnings are really really low...
  • #12,983
  • Jul 11, 2009 10:50am Jul 11, 2009 10:50am
You guys are all talking fundamentals analysis which is so good but doesn't help those who play this pair tick by tick..

technically talking, there's a double bottom on the hourly with a very nice pinbar!! price got to play this and go up.. till then.. we will see what will happen next

good pippin
Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #12,984
  • Jul 11, 2009 10:54am Jul 11, 2009 10:54am
Quoting fayz0r
You guys are all talking fundamentals analysis which is so good but doesn't help those who play this pair tick by tick..
I tried this but lost money year after year. The day I stopped "trading" that intraday noise I became better and better.
  • #12,985
  • Jul 11, 2009 11:09am Jul 11, 2009 11:09am
Being aware of fundamentals is just like being aware of your surroundings/environments. You can be all technical and profitable, but being aware of what is going around is something that is important too.

A case in point, people have been screaming short Euro USD and Australian pairs from more than 2 months now. Why did it not go down to 3200? You are a 1 Hour techie and during these 8 weeks or so I have seen many times on the H4 and Daily frame that it is time to go down, but they did not!! There is obviously some one who does not think Dollar should get stronger.

Yes i see the double bottom on H1 and may be H4 too. But even if I did not know about the pattern I would be careful to take a short here. Bank of America and other big cos have results out on Friday. Any decent profit, better than expectations will see this thing fly up. Many people have bought homes here in the US this past month as concersn about rate hike loomed, so a hosuing number improvement could be another thing to watch out for.

PS- All my trades last 2 days or longer, this one definitely come to ripe in a week or so



Quoting fayz0r
You guys are all talking fundamentals analysis which is so good but doesn't help those who play this pair tick by tick..

technically talking, there's a double bottom on the hourly with a very nice pinbar!! price got to play this and go up.. till then.. we will see what will happen next

good pippin
Its all in the mind.
  • #12,986
  • Jul 11, 2009 1:34pm Jul 11, 2009 1:34pm
You mean technical?

The USD/JPY pair had displayed a double bottom on its daily chart on March 19 and May 20. If the chart alone is to be followed, it should have held when the pair went down on July 7. But where is the pair now?

Don't be too dependent on the trend alone. Because this is only influenced by the developments that is happening on the fundamental side.

Besides, there wouldn't have been a school for technicals if the first traders were not using the fundamental rules for their goods.

Quoting fayz0r
You guys are all talking fundamentals analysis which is so good but doesn't help those who play this pair tick by tick..

technically talking, there's a double bottom on the hourly with a very nice pinbar!! price got to play this and go up.. till then.. we will see what will happen next

good pippin
"No trade is still a trade." - Peter Borish
  • #12,987
  • Jul 11, 2009 4:01pm Jul 11, 2009 4:01pm
Quoting 5abi
There is obviously some one who does not think Dollar should get stronger.
And i guess this someone is the very Fed itself. I totally relate to Xaron, da evil German Kraut, that extending your trade duration increases your success rate in geometrical progression. And looking 2 months into the future, guys, i see a limited downward potential and an unlimited upward potential for usd/jpy. Current sentiment comes and goes. Reminds me of last summer when eur/usd was pushing up 1.60 and was hitting some invisible glass ceiling foreshadowing the things to come.

I like how LFB describes the five waves moves, esp. the first one: "Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force, and the move from channeling to trending is seen as impossible."

Luvly, isn't it? Your guts or abit below gotta be made of steel to go against the market at those first signs. What are the first signs now? I think the upgrades in economic forecasts by US and Japan.

Any thoughts?
  • #12,988
  • Jul 11, 2009 4:30pm Jul 11, 2009 4:30pm
I totally agree with your thinking regarding the emergence of bull markets. And I see limited downward potential too.

However FED is in a very envious position right now- paradox is that if world economy is to improve then the dollar has to weaken. There is no other way around- you cannot have a very strong dollar and good growth at the same time. FED is on any given day more comfortable with INFLATION than DEFLATION IMHO, especially in this recession. I mean a good level of inflation helps us all-pays increase, growth occurs and investors make money. But as of now, FED sees if dollar goes strong deflation may occur. So they might actually want their currency to get weaker. However everyone with the exception of Japan and Commodity nations want their currency to be weaker too. Lol. I mean EURO does not want a strong euro either because then it is costlier for their corporates to do business. So what does this mean for us retail traders? Just be aware that a strong EURO at this moment in un-natural. EURO has to be about 34-35 against the dollar. It also means that we need to be aware that Yen being so strong against the dollar is un-natural. 92 is not a reasonable price at this moment. We are better than we were a year, even 6 months ago.





Quoting Groovy
And i guess this someone is the very Fed itself. I totally relate to Xaron, da evil German Kraut, that extending your trade duration increases your success rate in geometrical progression. And looking 2 months into the future, guys, i see a limited downward potential and an unlimited upward potential for usd/jpy. Current sentiment comes and goes. Reminds me of last summer when eur/usd was pushing up 1.60 and was hitting some invisible glass ceiling foreshadowing the things to come.

I like how LFB describes the five waves moves, esp. the first one:...
Its all in the mind.
  • #12,989
  • Jul 11, 2009 5:02pm Jul 11, 2009 5:02pm
See how 93 area nicely aligns as a major weekly s/r area with the 61.8 FIBO.

Now if it holds here on Monday US open, why should I not take a long here with stop at 91.50 and target 95?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 17 KB
Its all in the mind.
  • #12,990
  • Jul 11, 2009 5:11pm Jul 11, 2009 5:11pm
[quote=5abi;2867653]... EURO has to be about 34-35 against the dollar.quote]

In my long-term fair value search i do sometimes resort to PPP (purchasing power parity) btw countries and yep, i also see eur/usd at similar levels. Weak dollar = world economic growth is assumed, no other way for now. However, i just thought that BoJ doesn't really have to intervene at all. FED can do it all for them. It only takes them to push up eurusd or gbpusd, aka devalue usd in any way they deem fit to immediately cause a major sell-off in yen. If (or rather when) we see GBPUSD trading at 1.65 i would be highly surprised if usd/jpy were trading at below 90 at the same time. Instead i would see hovering around 96-97 levels.
  • #12,991
  • Jul 11, 2009 5:25pm Jul 11, 2009 5:25pm
Ohh yes, I see Pound Dollar at 64+ this week too. Spills over to GBP-YEN too. We will see, I am right now preparing my charts for the majors for this coming week. I am also see a very good long opportunity for AUD-USD at 7700.

[quote=Groovy;2867677]
Quoting 5abi
... EURO has to be about 34-35 against the dollar.quote]

In my long-term fair value search i do sometimes resort to PPP (purchasing power parity) btw countries and yep, i also see eur/usd at similar levels. Weak dollar = world economic growth is assumed, no other way for now. However, i just thought that BoJ doesn't really have to intervene at all. FED can do it all for them. It only takes them to push up eurusd or gbpusd, aka devalue usd in any way they deem fit to immediately cause a major sell-off in yen. If (or rather when)...
Its all in the mind.
  • #12,992
  • Jul 11, 2009 5:37pm Jul 11, 2009 5:37pm
This here is the aussie dollar one. I cannot devote much time analyzing during the week, as I have a FT job, so I get all my charts ready over the weekend for pairs I trade. These levels hold unless there is a real wild move like last YEN move. These levels provide me with my stop and limit info.

I have pending orders at 7750 and 7700 areas. If we can see a decent bounce here guys, USD-JPY will also see 95-96 this week. The picture does not show another strong resistance at 7500 for AU. That is where my stop would be.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie dollar.gif Size: 26 KB
Its all in the mind.
  • #12,993
  • Jul 11, 2009 6:47pm Jul 11, 2009 6:47pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj1.gif Size: 27 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj2.gif Size: 40 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj3.gif Size: 21 KB


Good pippin!
Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #12,994
  • Jul 12, 2009 6:37am Jul 12, 2009 6:37am
Quoting Xaron
I tried this but lost money year after year. The day I stopped "trading" that intraday noise I became better and better.
Xaron,

Just saw your MT statement from the link. What grabbed my attention is the line:
352072009.07.06 15:38buy0.20audusd0.79120.00000.80002009.07.07 13:010.80000.000.00-1.76125.58
with the swap being -1.76. I didn't drink my glass of wine for today but wonder just why? Interest rate in AU is 3% whereas in the States <0.25. If i had a similar transaction on interactive brokers at least i'd expect some dough given, not taken. What say you to such a rip-off?
  • #12,995
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:02am Jul 12, 2009 11:02am
Just stumbled on this article -- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aXQT1NGik0a0
Its all in the mind.
  • #12,996
  • Jul 13, 2009 7:39am Jul 13, 2009 7:39am
In my humble opinion, I dont see price going higher than 92.95. Maybe it will go up to 92.75 before heading back down, but I dont see it going to 95-96 UNLESS there is some sort of intervention. But based on my technical analysis, I dont see it going much higher. But I could be wrong, remember Im just a noob.
On a journey to consistency.
  • #12,997
  • Jul 13, 2009 8:22am Jul 13, 2009 8:22am
Quoting Tataocb
In my humble opinion, I dont see price going higher than 92.95. Maybe it will go up to 92.75 before heading back down, but I dont see it going to 95-96 UNLESS there is some sort of intervention. But based on my technical analysis, I dont see it going much higher. But I could be wrong, remember Im just a noob.

Lets see H1 and wait until US session.
  • #12,998
  • Jul 13, 2009 9:39am Jul 13, 2009 9:39am
Triple Bottom, Daily Tweazers.. will add a chart later on!!

Added to my long at 91.85

let's see how it goes.. still first tp at 94.xx
Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #12,999
  • Jul 13, 2009 9:58am Jul 13, 2009 9:58am
long 92.60 no mercy full speed hurry
  • #13,000
  • Jul 13, 2009 10:01am Jul 13, 2009 10:01am
Quoting ben10
long 92.60 no mercy full speed hurry

Did you put a Long with UJ ? Maybe it will come up by tomorrow as stock gains.
40 traders viewing now