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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #18,321
  • Jul 11, 2009 1:19am Jul 11, 2009 1:19am
Thanks for the analysis EO should be an interesting week, hopefully we will get a strong move either way next week although I have to agree it looks to be bearish right now.


Quoting eohater
Here's my naked day chart without ma's on it, I don't believe I posted it last week, but I have not made any adjustments to it since last weekend....
  • #18,322
  • Jul 11, 2009 2:58am Jul 11, 2009 2:58am
Quoting eohater
Here's my monthly view.
thanks bro, interesting when you have time to go a little deeper like this
  • #18,323
  • Jul 11, 2009 3:36am Jul 11, 2009 3:36am
Thanks to Infinity , Turtle , EO, and djambazov84, and all the others that share their views.

It is always great whenever people take the time and enegry to help each other and share there views. It is what makes this thread one of the best going..

Now everyone take a deep breath and relax for the rest of the weekend
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #18,324
  • Jul 11, 2009 7:28am Jul 11, 2009 7:28am
Lovely analysis, I'll post mine in a bit...but you know I can't go totally naked. lol
  • #18,325
  • Edited 9:05am Jul 11, 2009 8:18am | Edited 9:05am
I agree with EO on the monthly chart, I was just thinking the same thing , the prior month's bar was a piercing line candlestick, which doesn't commit one way or the other without a confirming candlestick.

On the weekly, we see that the 38.2 fib is offering solid resistance and the candlestick pattern looking "toppish". Usually in strong trends price retreats to the 38.2 fib and then is off on its way again. Both the stochastics and RSX are also overbought and pointed down.

A word about stochs. I prefer to use the RSX, to stochastics, because it behaves like a smoothed, yet non lagging stochastics. But, most importantly it doesn't stay overbought or oversold, and run along the bottom or top, it always respects it's levels.

What it will do is create a divergence if price keeps moving strongly in the direction.

Note however that the weekly 50 ma has flattened out and on the day chart price is currently sandwiched between the 35ma and 50 ma.

The day charts stochs /rsx are however rising from an oversold position, now I believe if we are to plummet, we will not do it from an oversold stochastic, we need to go up to get more steam , and then plummet.

Given the flatline of the weekly 50 ema, we could also be in a range highlighted on the day chart. Remember that an overbought stoch does not necessarily imply a fall, price can range its way out of the overbought condition. However a convincing break of the day 50 ma and the close of next weeks candle should bring more clarity. But now to the smaller timeframes...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_day.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #18,326
  • Jul 11, 2009 8:26am Jul 11, 2009 8:26am
Quoting GodfreyH
I agree with EO on the monthly chart, I was just thinking the same thing , the prior month's bar was a piercing line candlestick, which doesn't commit one way or the other without a confirming candlestick.

On the weekly, we see that the 38.2 fib is offering solid resistance and the candlestick pattern looking "toppish". Usually in strong trends price retreats to the 38.2 fib and then is off on its way again. Both the stochastics and RSX are also oversold and pointed down.

A word about stochs. I prefer to use the RSX, to stochastics, because...
can you share the RSX indi,i would like to try it.....
which time frame do you use it for ?

thanks

baz
  • #18,327
  • Jul 11, 2009 8:40am Jul 11, 2009 8:40am
On the 4hr chart, we see that price was rejected at the 50 fib and also it bounced off the bollinger band middle line. If you check, you'll notice that the middle line of the bollinger band offers good support or resistance. The RSX is currently pointed down, but it is right at the 0 line , where it usually bounces from, unless in a stong trend.

On the hour chart, we have a rounded bottom at the 50 fib and the price resistance at 1.6205. The doubleRSX shows nice divergence as well. I plan to be looking for longs, unless I see convincing price action otherwise.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_1hr.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #18,328
  • Jul 11, 2009 8:50am Jul 11, 2009 8:50am
Quoting baz
can you share the RSX indi,i would like to try it.....
which time frame do you use it for ?

thanks

baz
Sure, you can download it from this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=175863

Some people seem to have problems installing the jurik series, so if you have any problems let me know.

Oh ...Its valid in any time frame.
  • #18,329
  • Jul 11, 2009 8:52am Jul 11, 2009 8:52am
Woodstock, sunrise, August 1969.

The one... the only...Jimi Hendrix

Inserted Video


Let your freak flag fly!
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #18,330
  • Jul 11, 2009 8:53am Jul 11, 2009 8:53am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
Here is a well written PDF showing where our best performers pick there S/R target and place stops and profit areas. Very basic stuff but overlooked by many people.

I don't feel right posting the thread where this comes from but if you would like I would PM you the link. It is very basic information though that might just help some understand what and why we are looking at certain areas.

if anyone has issue with me posting this here let me know and I will remove it.
Picked up some nuggets from the PDF, thanks Ken for sharing.

HOLLA
  • #18,331
  • Jul 11, 2009 9:10am Jul 11, 2009 9:10am
Quoting GodfreyH
Sure, you can download it from this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=175863

Some people seem to have problems installing the jurik series, so if you have any problems let me know.

Oh ...Its valid in any time frame.
thanks Godfrey...i will try it

baz
  • #18,332
  • Jul 11, 2009 11:32pm Jul 11, 2009 11:32pm
Can't sleep ... so I'll post this: I'll consider a short if price breaks this trendline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,333
  • Jul 12, 2009 9:01am Jul 12, 2009 9:01am
Many thanks for the higher TF analysis EO (yours too Godfrey). Very much appreciated.

While stepping back on my daily view I see the down move (starting Aug 2008) where price respected the underside of the 50 EMA (obviously I guess) before starting to round out a bottom and then crossing back above the 50 MA in April of this year (the 50 MA crossed above the 100 MA too). After an initial retest in April, July 8th was the first time price has been back to the 50 MA and she did kick off quite hard.

Friday produced a bearish Harami so I agree with the bearish view and a possible return to the daily 50 MA (16000/16100) this coming week. I have no idea what she'll do when/if she gets there but hopefully PA will give me a clue or three.

Not really insightful analysis and no conclusions drawn as such. Just my thoughts aloud.

Thanks for your continued willingness to share.

Macc
  • #18,334
  • Jul 12, 2009 9:55am Jul 12, 2009 9:55am
GBP_USD Spot.png 12 hr Tf

1) the Rising Red line is the Intresting one,tested from below and failed to close above it
2) Bearish Engulfin Pattern seen
3) a 50 % retrace of last swing seen....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP_USD Spot.png Size: 13 KB
  • #18,335
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:02am Jul 12, 2009 11:02am
Let me add my view....you guys have the technicals covered!

For last several weeks cable has been as flat as i have ever seen it. She broke above 6600 and below 6200 but only for a short time and is back in her comfort zone now.

Stock market earnings reports coming out this week!

Positive equals dollar weakness

Negative equals dollar strength

I am hoping for flat cause i am digging this 400 pip range. Previous price action is really starting to repeat. What more could u ask for!
  • #18,336
  • Jul 12, 2009 12:37pm Jul 12, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting GodfreyH
Can't sleep ... so I'll post this: I'll consider a short if price breaks this trendline.
I perfectly agrre with your analisys.
I usually play only EURUSD, but I would love to short GPBUSD, when it comes to 1.63, not first, and then wait until it reaches 1.53 (his natural goal).
I understand the reason why you cannot sleep....it's a big business.
  • #18,337
  • Edited 1:41pm Jul 12, 2009 1:28pm | Edited 1:41pm
equity negative means dollor weakness coz foreign money escape by exchange usd valued property back to non usd currency.

see how much U/J send off last week.... it's like mouse running away from an earth quake.

is it true that usd gained a little from dow retrace start of june, but is 1.075+-0.015 called a strength?

equity weak -> a weak econ -> hold usd cash -> wait for fed to print more stimuli money and devalue it??? >_<

no formula works forever btw...

also, banks are extreme careful in Q1 and they profit, will banks be less profitable in Q2 w/ government questioning their exec every day?

I guess they'd rather manip their books than announce an operating loss and have bonus taken away by congress.

Quoting Shilva
Let me add my view....you guys have the technicals covered!

For last several weeks cable has been as flat as i have ever seen it. She broke above 6600 and below 6200 but only for a short time and is back in her comfort zone now.

Stock market earnings reports coming out this week!

Positive equals dollar weakness

Negative equals dollar strength

I am hoping for flat cause i am digging this 400 pip range. Previous price action is really starting to repeat. What more could u ask for!
  • #18,338
  • Jul 12, 2009 1:51pm Jul 12, 2009 1:51pm
Here's something I've been working on for everyone. Let me know what you think.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Intraday Trading Worksheet.doc   31 KB | 463 downloads
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #18,339
  • Jul 12, 2009 2:27pm Jul 12, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting eohater
Here's something I've been working on for everyone. Let me know what you think.
Thanks for this and the extent you go to help others. It's good to have a structured battle plan approach to trading. Plan your trade and then trade your plan
  • #18,340
  • Jul 12, 2009 2:32pm Jul 12, 2009 2:32pm
... financial report due in 3 weeks

Lloyd’s May Report Further $21 Billion Loss, Sunday Times:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a4gLlJjyH8bg
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