EURUSD

I guess Godzilla is gettin one of those full body soapy massage breaks. Slacker. 12 pips off a Rodan move but I'll take it.

sure thing!... i`m gonna try microsoft`s sidewinder for order management

1.4 is getting very boring... Let`s try 1.2 or 1.1...

anyone think we're going to break support here?

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=180902

COT Report says Large Specs are short the dollar bigtime. Do you follow?

Maybe on second try, I assume you are refering to 1.3953 daily pp...

yep, that one...

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never read that report before, thanks, guess it doesn't bode well for this short position.

http://veritefx.com/veritefx_blog/20...july-2009.html

The fallacy of an established trend part II:

In yesterday's update I wrote a commentary about how it was a completely false premise to claim there are any established trends in the markets, specifically in the currency market. I know my opinions on this issue made a few eyes roll, but about 6-hours after I wrote and published that commentary I got an email from one of our community members with a link to an interesting story posted on Bloomberg last night. The title of Bloomberg's article:

'Currency Funds Crushed on Dearth of Market Trends'

Hmm... so maybe I'm not crazy after all... according to this Bloomberg article, the world's largest currency hedge fund has lost over 5% because there is no clear market trend. And what really put a smile on my face was after I did a little research on this fund, called FX Concepts, and found out that it has been traded almost on a purely technical basis using computer generated technical indicators to find momentum.

The fund's trading is based on a technical model and I think it's fairly obvious why the fund has been hammered -- lagging indicators cannot perform in a market environment where fundamentals, geo-politics, and central bank monetary policy directly affect the emotions of market participants and dictate where they send their money-flows.

From the Bloomberg article:

"I am not trying to make any excuse, but certainly it has been difficult," said John Taylor, chairman of New York-based FX Concepts, which manages about $12 billion. "Unfortunately, there's lack of consistence of what's happening. I am wondering how stupid the market can be for how long."

There's a good lesson here for Mr. Taylor and all traders -- the market is never stupid and the market is never wrong, it is us traders who are the stupid ones when we fight against the market correlations, the fundamentals, and central bankers. What is stupid is using a system that consistently fails, needs to be tweaked out all the time, or signals trades that are in direct contrast to the underlying fundamental and geo-political factors which move markets.

Nobody likes to lose, I hate losing, but there's got to be a point where a trader takes a step back to evaluate their own trading to figure out what they are doing wrong. Blaming the market is the first sign the market is holding a trader hostage. Thinking the market is just being stupid is another good sign a trader has lost the psychological battle and is wandering aimlessly.

In the month of June my win ratio was 90.30% and guess what happened the 9.70% of the time I lost? It was my fault, not the market or my trading system. Every single loss I took in the month of June and those I've taken in the month of July were because I was either impatient, emotional, or I tried to trade against the fundamentals, geo-politics and correlated markets. It's that simple.

Right now this is purely a traders market. There is zero trend and a lack of clear direction and nobody can predict if or when things will get back to how they were in 2006 and 2007 when all you had to do was buy the euro every time it dipped. The lack of an established trend is exactly what the central bankers want and they always get what they want because they hold all the power. It doesn't matter to me how a trader picks and chooses their entries but whatever process is used should consistently perform or else the trader ends up like Mr. Taylor who probably can't sleep at night knowing his multi-billion dollar hedge fund has been steamrolled by the market.

hey man where are you from?

Very true Good post thank you

OMG gator crude futures are green the rally starts today get in now don't be late to the frenzy!

yeah.. its never a straight line.. but it you build it i will come.. till then im selling

gator... the supports prove hard man.


i am still holding my shorts spread from 1.3980 to 1.3900


FOOL= COT report shorting dollar? arrgghh this is the big folks right

OK watch the Nikkei turn green & ride this back to .3990. Damn I can't trade the FO/LO tonight, fried the Northbridge chip on the home workstation. I hope ya'll won't miss me. Who am I talkin to anyway?

Hey Fool, et al....I'm listening....

COT shows Large specs short the $, so long the E/U.

Good Luck.

hard? we are trading in the summer.. even warren buffet is unsure about economy.. look at berkshire stock.. banks are barely making money borrowing it at almost 0%. turn off the tv. walk around where you live. take a unbiased look.. talk to real people. then see if you believe the hype..

This sequence of posts is excellent! Points out that chart "indicators", being based upon historical price data, can definately leave the trader in hot water soon as the "powers at large" whipsaw the price in the opposite direction......a point worth remembering. A lot is made of "fundamentals, geo-politics, and related markets" in these writings, as if they honestly are responsible for PA direction. I take some exception to this, as it is hard to believe, day by day, the fundamentals and geo-politics and related markets change so dramatically as to cause the PA whipsawing. No, I still submit the FX market is profit driven. Central banks and huge hedge funds call the shots. These guys want and do make their profits weekly, and they do so by continuously bouncing the PA around and without much regard to whether or not it happens to be moving contrary to fundamentals, geo-politics, or related markets. Oh, they may say the price went "that-a-way" because California is writing IOUs, but that becomes only a vague rememberance when it is moving oppositely the next day....for which they have another "reason". So, in a way, none of this stuff is totally reliable for the trader. We just have to take it all in, size it up, and take our best shots.....and be quick to correct our actions whenever necessary.

http://www.blog.veritefx.com/

is very good to helping my trading