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  • #117,361
  • Jul 2, 2009 10:55am Jul 2, 2009 10:55am
Quoting Domas4
Long from .4011. Don't know whether to TP @ 30 or leave for tonight
Me too & not think it will not reach as high as 1.4046 to 1.4064 though still it is pointing much lower levels this weekend.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #117,362
  • Jul 2, 2009 11:13am Jul 2, 2009 11:13am
I see only 3 main supply areas to break through on the way up to 1.4100:
1.4043, 1.4062, 1.4083.
The first is the most difficult.
The bottom today was at a rising trendline in 4 hr chart, and the market has tested this trendline 6 times. The next time we may not be so fortunate.
P.S. I lightened my load at 1.4028 as it's getting late in the session.
  • #117,363
  • Jul 2, 2009 11:14am Jul 2, 2009 11:14am
Exit @ 24. Nevermind, I will take a rest for today
Good luck with your long Fontu
cut losses short, let profits run.
  • #117,364
  • Edited 11:52am Jul 2, 2009 11:23am | Edited 11:52am
PA is creating an upside channel seen on this M5 chart. It could turn out to be a Bear Channel forcasting a subsequent downside move, which the Asian Session traders may cause, especially if they once again resent being handed the tail of the dog. They could knock price back down so as to be able to trade at the lows also. Meanwhile, as we run the session clock down, there is still a chance of new highs in this channel giving nervous longs a better exit before the close....just a chance.

Edit: This is pure speculation just for fun - Another reason to suspect the PA goes a bit higher before the close is that it would be like a "Party Gift" to the Asian traders as they are handed the tail of the dog when they come in. It would be like saying, "Gee, sorry you missed out on the dump. But here, we moved it up a bit at the end so you could make more when you short it back to the lows and start buying......" LOL! (Well, Psiholog might get a laugh out of that.)
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  • #117,365
  • Jul 2, 2009 11:47am Jul 2, 2009 11:47am
Guys, what number do u use for Stochastics? I hold 14,3,3 reliable for me. Sometimes 8,3,3. I wonder what number you guys use?

EDIT: Yep traderathome, it should depend on Asian traders.
cut losses short, let profits run.
  • #117,366
  • Jul 2, 2009 11:54am Jul 2, 2009 11:54am
Quoting Domas4
Exit @ 24. Nevermind, I will take a rest for today
Good luck with your long Fontu
Me too closing now .Market is virtually dead now. No time see trades now ,better sleep today well.
thanks ,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #117,367
  • Jul 2, 2009 12:05pm Jul 2, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting Atlast
Price has to get above S1 at 1.4125 and stay above, to show strength in longs. At this point every move up is met with resistance. However, the selling pressure is reduced. I am still long although taking some heat.
Right there with you buddy. Nursing a position in the red from a stupid trade taken out of over-confidence. Let's see me get out of this.
  • #117,368
  • Jul 2, 2009 12:21pm Jul 2, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting reload.ir
First Target for Short : 4040.

Still No Long.

Be Happy.
Perfect test 4015 after rejection.

Be Happy.
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  • #117,369
  • Jul 2, 2009 12:32pm Jul 2, 2009 12:32pm
I have a feeling the slaughter will go on over the night on the DOW so I've set myself up a safety and going to bed. Night all.
  • #117,370
  • Jul 2, 2009 12:34pm Jul 2, 2009 12:34pm
That little push down was trapped longs giving up before market closes. Now to see if that dropped it far enough for a stop hunt below 3985!
  • #117,371
  • Jul 2, 2009 12:38pm Jul 2, 2009 12:38pm
Nice turnaround (again). Well done to all the shorters! USDX daily attached. The 79.50/60 area is really significant. See how many times it has bounced from that area.

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #117,372
  • Jul 2, 2009 12:39pm Jul 2, 2009 12:39pm
Quoting FX-Petra
That little push down was trapped longs giving up before market closes. Now to see if that dropped it far enough for a stop hunt below 3985!
Nope, the push down is a reaction to the DOW futures dump.

Actually it's quite curious since during the trading hours the DOW did just a tight range after correlating the the futures but only the futures took it down even more. Smells like protection + speculation.
  • #117,373
  • Jul 2, 2009 12:54pm Jul 2, 2009 12:54pm
support tested again
  • #117,374
  • Jul 2, 2009 12:57pm Jul 2, 2009 12:57pm
My view Best place to long 1.40 , Now we should go up or at least not down 1.3985
  • #117,375
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:11pm Jul 2, 2009 1:11pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Nope, the push down is a reaction to the DOW futures dump.

Actually it's quite curious since during the trading hours the DOW did just a tight range after correlating the the futures but only the futures took it down even more. Smells like protection + speculation.
Recognizing that late session trading is light volume trading, this last move down was followed up with a lot more volume in the lower regions of PA, than the volume that moved PA down to begin with! So, to me it comes out looking like no more than a manipulated dump to a lower price for heavier trading.....(buy low, sell high)
  • #117,376
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:14pm Jul 2, 2009 1:14pm
I'm in long at 1.40.
  • #117,377
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:18pm Jul 2, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting traderathome
PA is creating an upside channel seen on this M5 chart. It could turn out to be a Bear Channel forcasting a subsequent downside move, which the Asian Session traders may cause, especially if they once again resent being handed the tail of the dog. They could knock price back down so as to be able to trade at the lows also. Meanwhile, as we run the session clock down, there is still a chance of new highs in this channel giving nervous longs a better exit before the close....just a chance.

Edit: This is pure speculation just for fun - Another reason...
Ouch! US traders are being merciless towards the Asian traders....no "Party Favor" for them at all! Just hand them the tail of the dog and walk away smiling........
  • #117,378
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:36pm Jul 2, 2009 1:36pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Right there with you buddy. Nursing a position in the red from a stupid trade taken out of over-confidence. Let's see me get out of this.
Looks like we could take a lot more heat on this one. Glad I lightened my load earlier.
A move down to around 1.3960 before any major retrace takes place could happen. Since that's quite a few pips away my SL is today's low.
This would be my worse trade of the week if stopped out. Rest of the week was just great as market made some nice swings up and down. Today all down.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=546
  • #117,379
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:48pm Jul 2, 2009 1:48pm
I think if it goes through 1.3980 to 1.3960 it will keep going till 1.3900. There isnt much to stop it between .3960 and .3900 in regards to resistance / support during the last few key moves (hourly chart). That would also make me looking for an establishing downtrend...
  • #117,380
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:53pm Jul 2, 2009 1:53pm
Still in boxed range with PA hanging out in the lows.....I keep adjusting the point of origin for the lower fork tong as PA drifts down. It will be a new, untested Andrew's Fork, which I hope I do not have to adjust downward any more......
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