Trade what you see NOT what you expect

Hi to every one and to my american friends a Happy 4th of July this week...

Davids,i could not post charts ,BUT here it is..

GBP_USD Spot.png

Thanks Bros....
I thought a hangman/hammer/shooting star had to have little or no wick on 1 side

Thanks Baz

Well I did and the response she gave me was "Thank you sir may I have another".

pp.gif

ok Guys i have neglected this thread......sorry EoH
GbpLite Fx

but DejaVue ????

baz

hello my friend EO

How are you? how is trading with you ???

Debooo! Nice to see you bro! I'm well and trading is good as well. I'm still on the short bus on cable, might be changing teams later, but for now, I'm marching south.

How is trading with you? I'm sure you're nailing the pips as usual.

Good to see you baz! I agree with what your chart is showing. I feel we're going to be in this 62xx to 67xx range til mid July. Ironically, I'm looking for one hell of a good short on the 15th of July. If you go back and revisit last year this time, you will see we were doing the same thing, stuck in a range, up and down, up and down, then on the 15th, she made a decision to move down and never looked back.

h1 is supporting another move down. We had a bullish candle, followed by a hanging man, and now the current h1 is going to give us da pin! Baz, I believe our dear bro peaches likes this setup.

Hi Eoh
remember the good old days.....when cable only averaged 80-100 pips a Day !!!
so i am hoping this increased Volatility stays forever, i mean +200 pips a Day Range.....
ahhha the Young pups dont how it was in the good old days...
i will watch out for that Date..

take Care

baz

GBP_USD Spot.png

this is aQUATERLY Chart,notice its stopped at 38% fibo,and also a new Quater has started begining July....so signs are there for a SHORT,BUT it has also room to go to 50% fibo as well...
trade safe

baz

Without a doubt bro! I can see the 50% fib as well.

GBP_USD Spot.png

sorry Guys ,i know you trade LTF,but heres a last one 2 pin bars on 6 hr TF,suggesting an UP move...but let your pA guide you...
i think thats it for me today.....My boys tell me i "STINK ", and need to have a shower....
we have had a HEATWAVE in the UK for the past few days...and long may it continue

baz

as we all KNOW,markets ZIG and ZAG.....so be prepared for anything...we dont like getting married !!!

baz

Thanks for the charts bro! As we might intraday trade her on lower TF, we still keep the higher TF in our head for our direction and risk management. I can see this going back up to 6700 for sure, not sure when and I might have missed it this morning.

I hear what you say about the 15th of July but this was when all the countries around the world decided that we were in a recession and economic doom was upon us, people fled to the dollar and the pound plummeted

I think things have improved a lot since then so I am not sure we will see the like again very soon, I will send you a report I got today which may cause the pound to crash due to our government overspending

I remember saying years ago.... if she just moves 120 in one direction i can at least get 60 or 80 of it..... and was perfectly happy!

Had a nice run up earlier and closed and reversed at 6400.....stopped that one out with a small loss!

Looks to me like holiday is starting early. Think I will join them.

You guys are the best....thanks for letting me hang out!

1. The dollar had a mixed day across the board yesterday, pushing lower against the euro after another threat to its reserve currency status and after a general move higher in equities. Strong stocks generally encourage "risk appetite" and send speculators out of lower-yielding currencies into assets with higher potential returns. The euro advanced to its highest level in nearly a month to $1.4202 after an article from Reuters news agency reported that China was requesting a debate on a new global reserve currency at next week's Group of Eight meeting.
2. However, the move may have been exaggerated by thin trading conditions ahead of the July 4th celebrations in the U.S. China's request follows the release of its 2009 financial stability report last week, which included the intention to break free of an over-reliance on a single currency. The report essentially reiterated a March essay by People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, which called for expanded use of Special Drawing Rights, a basket of currencies used between the International Monetary Fund and its member countries.
3. Essentially, a substantial "rival currency" would reduce dollar holdings by major central banks that could lead to a broad decline in the dollar's exchange rate, although, such a change in policy would take years to apply. Yesterday afternoon in New York, the euro was at $1.4147 from $1.4025 late Tuesday whilst sterling/dollar was at $1.6475 from $1.6461.
4. On the UK front - sterling's strength is looking increasingly untenable. The UK's economic recovery is proving a lot more feeble than the market is anticipating and, as Standard & Poor's, the Bank for International Settlements and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have warned, the country's public finances are only going from bad to worse. The general sentiment toward sterling is gradually becoming negative and for the moment, the fact that the UK is the only triple-A rated country with a 'negative outlook' is largely being ignored. The currency strategy team at Citigroup comments "Either plans for massive fiscal restraint or a rating downgrade are likely to refocus the market's attention on the dire fiscal situation."
5. At the moment, the investment community is focusing on the green shoots of recovery - a rise in UK house prices here and an increase in manufacturing production there. However, these green shoots are looking increasingly weak and although the latest purchasing managers' survey for the manufacturing industry may have shown output rising over the key 50 point level that suggests economic expansion, the overall survey remains under 50 and its increase and the pace of improvement have slowed steadily in recent months.
6. "While it looks likely that we have stopped contracting, it is unlikely that we are heading for a boom," said Alan Clarke, UK economist with BNP Paribas in London. Similarly, the 0.9% rise in house prices that Nationwide reported for June is unlikely to last given the low level of transactions and the likelihood that prices are still nudging lower. The downward revision of first-quarter gross domestic product to a 2.4% contraction from -1.9% earlier has also helped to shake market confidence that all is not quite as it seems with the economy.
7. It is public finance, though, that could prove the final straw. As government spending mounts, so too do estimates of public debt relative to GDP. This is expected to rise rapidly from an already damaging level of over 50% now. As Gordon Brown struggles to boost the popularity of his discredited government ahead of elections next year, this state of affairs will only get worse as he launches another wild spending spree. Simon Derrick, a senior currency strategist with Bank of New York Mellon in London, said fiscal concerns have yet to show up in the price action of UK government bonds. But, like others, he suggests that support for the pound might finally be starting todisappear, given the currency's failure to make a sustained break over $1.66 earlier this week.

UK News

 

1. FT. Pressure grows on Bank to step up quantitative easing. There are no signs yet that the policy has fed through to UK economy, writes FT. Worries grow in the UK that policy-makers may end up being too cautious, leading to an extremely slow and protracted recovery.
2. Independent. Brown finally admits that there will be cuts in public spending. Brown changed his tone on public spending last night, admitting Labour would have to cut govt. programmes, as he tired to refocus his attack on the conservatives.
3. Telegraph. Recovery may not be sustainable, CBI warns. Richard Lambert, the director general of the CBI, said on Wednesday that the British economy was “undergoing a massive course of steroids” but it was not clear yet where sustainable growth would come from once the medication has worn off.