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Simple Trading Method with trader101

  • #2,141
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:38am Jun 30, 2009 9:38am
Quoting Jey
Hi friends,

I am a newbie trader and I would like to learn this Basket method. I tried downloading your tpl. and indicators but doesn't seem to get it working. Dont know why though. I am using a mini IBFX account had been demoing for abt. 4 weeks. Can someone help?

I need to know which is the proper templates / indicators that will let me have the IA 14 ccys - mine is having something like 30 over ccys!! Not sure where I went wrong.... Thanks.

If someone could help email me, much appreciated!

[email protected]...


Jey,

You don't need the EA.
Just enter all 14 pair into a dedicated demo account per instructions in post #1. Let is run. Start another at market open on Sunday, but let the original IA run as well. Be sure the 14 group is for IBFX.
That 14 pair demo is the IA and all you'll need.
That's the whole system.

Good luck
  • #2,142
  • Jun 30, 2009 10:00am Jun 30, 2009 10:00am
Quoting petero
Limstylz response is right-on.
Cheers! Your reply is spot on too.

Quote
But, as I see it, one can trade one or 2 or more pairs as you see fit according to the demo indicator, comprised of the 14 pairs.

Yes, however I would suggest that trading that way be limited to a scalping type of method... quick ins and outs due to the fact that news reports, unseen market participants, etc, MAY cause intermittent price fluctuations which are effectively smoothed out by using the other pairs. Your risk is spread out more evenly and the return on your risk over the entire basket, rather than a few pairs is much better.

Your explanation of hedging is exemplary. My only addition to what you wrote is that when you trade the entire basket in one direction, this negates the hedge and instead trades market sentiment as a whole.

Quote
Just need to read & learn & demo & keep it up. The whole method is your own reaction to what the demo IA is telling you.

Couldn't agree more.
  • #2,143
  • Jun 30, 2009 1:39pm Jun 30, 2009 1:39pm
  •  Jey
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Market Slave-Overworked/Underpipped | 283 Posts
Quoting petero
Jey,

You don't need the EA.
Just enter all 14 pair into a dedicated demo account per instructions in post #1. Let is run. Start another at market open on Sunday, but let the original IA run as well. Be sure the 14 group is for IBFX.
That 14 pair demo is the IA and all you'll need.
That's the whole system.

Good luck
Thanks Peter, appreciate your response.
I have seen the enemy, and it is me.
  • #2,144
  • Jun 30, 2009 1:43pm Jun 30, 2009 1:43pm
Hello,

There is no need to apologize to t101 as I am not sure if you will see very many more posts from him in FF as I believe FF does not allow people who have gone commercial or charge for services to post on FF. T101 is charging people $299 for his mentoring services now and has a website for it. I believe it was posted before.

Regards,
Jeff

Quoting Limstylz
Apologies for butting in, T101. Many thanks for sharing your system, and although I am not live using this particular strategy just yet, I have been very profitable on demo.

Please allow me to respond here and correct me if necessary.


1. The Orest indicator is not strictly necessary, provided you run the script to open the relevant trades on your demo platform and let it run for a couple of days to get into the correct order. This is important because if the trades look in order immediately, there may be a change in direction coming shortly....
  • #2,145
  • Jun 30, 2009 3:28pm Jun 30, 2009 3:28pm
Quoting Limstylz
Cheers! Your reply is spot on too.



Yes, however I would suggest that trading that way be limited to a scalping type of method... quick ins and outs due to the fact that news reports, unseen market participants, etc, MAY cause intermittent price fluctuations which are effectively smoothed out by using the other pairs. Your risk is spread out more evenly and the return on your risk over the entire basket, rather than a few pairs is much better.

Your explanation of hedging is exemplary. My only addition to what you wrote is that when you trade...



I agree with you on the 1, 2, 3, & 4 pair idea. Julius explained that as the first method of trading this, then presented the 14 pair one way concept. He did state clearly that the success rate of that manner of trading didn't equal that of the all 14 pair success. The scalping is probably the safest way to trade it. I don't pay too much attention because I only look at this a couple of times a day.

What I do look at, and this method makes it really easy, is individual currency strengths.

ex: today (or any day), GBP looks the strongest and JPY looks the weakest, so I might think about piling on the pairs which, either long or short, put me in a long GBP and a short JPY orientation, no matter which currency is on the other side, and forget about the rest of the pairs.

Long: GBPJPY, GBPUSD, GBPCHF, AUDJPY, EURJPY, USDJPY, NZDJPY, CHFJPY

And short: EURGBP

9 pairs to take advantage of that set-up. But to easily obtain the information, one needs all 14 pair positioned as in the IA demo.

Also, you made a very important point: That upon execution of the 14 pair - one direction, that you effectively break the hedge. Very true. Important point. Also, you've essentially doubled-down beacause you've reversed the hedge protection, turned it around, and turned it loose. That accounts for the dramatic profits this thing can generate.

There has to be something to the market sentiment indication from the IA because I've yet to get really really killed on a 14 pair play that went in the wrong direction (as opposed to a 1, 2, 3, 4 pair play). Yes some have just not panned out, and others went to the moon only to return for a luke-warm profit, but I haven't really lost considerable pips, YET. I wonder if signals properly read insulate (or minimize the likeyhood) from such a thing happening.

Well, another item onto my getting-larger "find out about...." list.
I'm dying to go live with this, but I see too much more to learn about the method to go live just yet. Patience.

Finally: Your words in a prior post couldn't carry more wisdom than "... don't look at just your profits, look at your losses as well..."

Good Luck
  • #2,146
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:26pm Jun 30, 2009 5:26pm
Petero,

Very good post. It is very informative about the system and my improvement on it!

I want to contribute again for this discussion with a thoght that I had a few hours ago when I tried to entewr deep on it.

One can have in both side of the IA account the weekest and strongest pairs. The difference between them are in each moment a given number.
Imagine the example below:

top pair: Sold AUDUSD +100
Below pair: Buy AUDJPY -150

This means the difference between these pairs is 250! Because they are in the extreme position it should be expected they came closer to each other. If I buy top pair and sell the below one when they become closer we can expect to be in the positive side of our trade. If they continue to extend the gap we have a looser trade (I am assuming trading only these pairs).

The big issue is when to enter this king of trade, meaning what is the difference between extremes which trigger the trade?

Can we reflect on this? Am I thinking well?

thx
  • #2,147
  • Jun 30, 2009 7:34pm Jun 30, 2009 7:34pm
Quoting umine
Petero,

Very good post. It is very informative about the system and my improvement on it!

I want to contribute again for this discussion with a thoght that I had a few hours ago when I tried to entewr deep on it.

One can have in both side of the IA account the weekest and strongest pairs. The difference between them are in each moment a given number.
Imagine the example below:

top pair: Sold AUDUSD +100
Below pair: Buy AUDJPY -150





This means the difference between these pairs is 250! Because they are in the extreme position it...


Well, Umine....I think that you are on the right track.


In my humble opinion....for what it's worth...

with the ex. pairs you presented above, I'd say AUD is the weak CURRENCY, not the pair.

In your IA demo, you'll trade all 14 pair the same way, either long or short, BUT NOT BOTH WAYS, depending on your signal....sells on bottom & moving up.....SELL Buys on bottom & moving up...BUY.

What you've got is your buy pairs are gaining and your sell pairs are loosing. (or vice versa) So, you BUY the Buys moving up & SELL the sells moving up.
You're buying into the buy's gain & buying into the sell's loss...by buying a short.

It's not gospel that buys are buys and sells are sells....that's merely how they are loaded into the IA. The actual trade, you execute as you choose.

Upon a trend change, the whole picture will reverse itself. So we want to be on the right side of what's moving up or down. When it goes up...BUY, when it goes down...SELL, no matter what the L/S is in your IA demo.

For trading individual pairs, you need to look at the position 7-8 jump, and look for a continuation...to position 6 or 9 and better. More risky trade than the 14 one way per signal from IA demo, though. Once the Sell (if they're below) reaches the Anchor (Pos. #1), there's your signal...even better if a Buy reaches the #14 position (also an Anchor). You're going to be looking to SELL all 14 pairs.

The example you mentioned places the subject pairs in the respective anchor positions. One is weakest and the other is strongest pair. So you're going to look to go with the strongest and against the weakest, by trading in the same direction, and trading all pairs because you'd have a trend change signal.

I hope I've explained to you to your benefit.
This is good because it makes me think.
Keep in touch. We'll get through this!

Good Luck.
  • #2,148
  • Jun 30, 2009 7:47pm Jun 30, 2009 7:47pm
Sorry.

So, in your example, and not having benefit of the other 12 pairs and their respective positions.....I'd say you are looking to Sell all 14 pairs, not just the 2. Assuming these pairs have just taken over the Anchor due to strength & haven't been sitting there and aren't. about to be displaced because of weakness.

That's the interesting thing about this method. Nothing is cast in stone. You have your tools to generate data, which sometimes can be considered signals....or not.
It's all about you the trader & how well you can read the information presented to you.

It represents real trading in my book. I can take or leave this EA stuff & the Moving Averages & the Awesome Oscilators. Smoke & mirrors.
The market is made up of people who buy....and they sell....and that's just about it. Why complicate things more than they need to be.

Good Luck, my friend.
  • #2,149
  • Jul 1, 2009 7:59am Jul 1, 2009 7:59am
Now I am starting to understand the system.

Are there any indicator where we can see the P/L of the IA basket (all the price movements of the IA)?
What I am seing is that there could be an average value for the basket (assume the P&L equals to zero) where the price fluctuations vary in negative and positive movements, but allways come around that central value.

One can enter a trade when we consider extreme values reached (buy if P&L is "highly negative" or vice versa).

Is this interpretation correct? Are there a basket indicator to see this?
  • #2,150
  • Jul 1, 2009 8:21am Jul 1, 2009 8:21am
Quoting umine
Now I am starting to understand the system.

Are there any indicator where we can see the P/L of the IA basket (all the price movements of the IA)?
What I am seing is that there could be an average value for the basket (assume the P&L equals to zero) where the price fluctuations vary in negative and positive movements, but allways come around that central value.

One can enter a trade when we consider extreme values reached (buy if P&L is "highly negative" or vice versa).

Is this interpretation correct? Are there a basket indicator to see...
Attached to the first post is the profitcalc EA by T101. This gives you the strong buy or strong sell signals. If that isn't what you are after, then look at the other basket strategies on FF. Kang Gun and Orest have their own takes on this, as well as a few others. Just do a search on basket trading in the search box.

However, lets not pollute this thread with other indicators or other methods in other well written strategies already out there.
  • #2,151
  • Jul 1, 2009 2:36pm Jul 1, 2009 2:36pm
hello,

can I ask how the profitcalc ea works? I tried and put it into expert and scripts, and tried it on all 14 charts, but nothing happened.

or am I not understanding something?
  • #2,152
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:09pm Jul 1, 2009 4:09pm
Quoting kimchikim
hello,

can I ask how the profitcalc ea works? I tried and put it into expert and scripts, and tried it on all 14 charts, but nothing happened.

or am I not understanding something?
correct, you aren't understanding... it won't work unless you follow the steps on the first post before attaching the EA. do the steps, wait a couple of days for the correct order to emerge, then it will work properly.
  • #2,153
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:29pm Jul 1, 2009 4:29pm
yeah, I started all the trades using the tradehedge script, started it two days ago, but the profit and loss is still randomly distributed. is that maybe because the 4 major pairs are pretty much consolidating right now?

shouldnt the profitcalc ea put the trades in an order? trader101 writes double clicking on it. I have put the ea into scripts and also into ea, and tried both, but nothing changed on my trading terminal.
i could also click on profit in the terminal to make it go from highest to lowest, but is there also another function to the profitcalc ea?

cheers
  • #2,154
  • Jul 1, 2009 8:27pm Jul 1, 2009 8:27pm
Quoting kimchikim
yeah, I started all the trades using the tradehedge script, started it two days ago, but the profit and loss is still randomly distributed. is that maybe because the 4 major pairs are pretty much consolidating right now?
No, that doesn't matter. The EA will show you strength of longs over shorts.

Quote
shouldnt the profitcalc ea put the trades in an order? trader101 writes double clicking on it.

You have this muddled up. Where and when have you ever needed to double click any EA? Aside from which, the EA does not put the trades in order, just tells you what direction it recommends you should be trading the basket on your live account.

Quote
I have put the ea into scripts and also into ea, and tried both, but nothing changed on my trading terminal.

EA's should always go in the root of the EA folder. Take any none scripts out of the scripts folder, as this may cause you confusion down the line.

Quote
i could also click on profit in the terminal to make it go from highest to lowest, but is there also another function to the profitcalc ea?

This has nothing to do with the profitcalc EA. This is to put the trades in order from profit to negative.

Look, start reading the first post carefully from the beginning to make sure you have a grasp of the theory. The EA isn't even necessary, its function is to make life easier for you, but you don't need it.

If you can't even see the smiley face in the top right hand corner of the chart where you placed the profitcalc EA, then you haven't enabled something in your options and you should check your metatrader options. More can be found on this in the newbie articles on FF.

However, if the smiley face is there, then check the number of active trades you have open. Check that you have the 14 pairs as listed on the first post as it may have something to do with that, if you have an incorrect number of trades open on the IA.
  • #2,155
  • Jul 1, 2009 8:43pm Jul 1, 2009 8:43pm
My current profit order is as follows:

gbpchf : sell : profit
gbpusd : sell : profit
cadjpy : buy : profit
usdjpy : buy : profit
usdchf : sell : profit
eurusd : buy : profit
gbpjpy : buy : profit
audpy : sell : negative
usdcad : buy : negative
eurchf : buy : negative
audusd : buy : negative
chfjpy : sell : negative
eurgbp : sell : negative
eurjpy : sell : negative

Just want to check mine against someone else's as I had a few system problems earlier and had to open another demo account.

TIA
  • #2,156
  • Jul 2, 2009 2:07am Jul 2, 2009 2:07am
  •  Jey
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Market Slave-Overworked/Underpipped | 283 Posts
Quoting petero
Jey,

You don't need the EA.
Just enter all 14 pair into a dedicated demo account per instructions in post #1. Let is run. Start another at market open on Sunday, but let the original IA run as well. Be sure the 14 group is for IBFX.
That 14 pair demo is the IA and all you'll need.
That's the whole system.

Good luck
Hi Peter,

I am using the 14 pair IA method but I am having a doubt as to which chart I should be using - is it the daily chart or weekly or is it 1H, 4H etc? Also, after about 10 minutes all the buys have grouped on top and all the sells have grouped below. Refer the attached screenshot. Is this correct?
Thanks
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc t101a.doc   197 KB | 1,425 downloads
I have seen the enemy, and it is me.
  • #2,157
  • Jul 2, 2009 2:42am Jul 2, 2009 2:42am
Quoting Jey
Hi Peter,

I am using the 14 pair IA method but I am having a doubt as to which chart I should be using - is it the daily chart or weekly or is it 1H, 4H etc? Also, after about 10 minutes all the buys have grouped on top and all the sells have grouped below. Refer the attached screenshot. Is this correct?
Thanks
TF's do not matter. This is not time frame specific! Be wary of immediate sorting and wait for a couple of days as you could be at the end of a trend.
  • #2,158
  • Jul 2, 2009 3:32am Jul 2, 2009 3:32am
  •  Jey
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Market Slave-Overworked/Underpipped | 283 Posts
Thanks Limstylz. I am slowly getting the hang of this.
I closed the MT4 and re-opened after lunch and noted that the groupings were still intact, i.e. buys on top and sells below and I also noticed that the Profit Calc. gave a SHORT (STRONG) signal. Is this signal valid since I only opened the IA a short while ago and should I wait for 1 or 2 days before taking the signal SHORT (STRONG) as accurate?
I have seen the enemy, and it is me.
  • #2,159
  • Jul 2, 2009 6:22am Jul 2, 2009 6:22am
Quoting Jey
Thanks Limstylz. I am slowly getting the hang of this.
I closed the MT4 and re-opened after lunch and noted that the groupings were still intact, i.e. buys on top and sells below and I also noticed that the Profit Calc. gave a SHORT (STRONG) signal. Is this signal valid since I only opened the IA a short while ago and should I wait for 1 or 2 days before taking the signal SHORT (STRONG) as accurate?
The correct method is to wait until Sunday open, launch the hedge script and wait 2 days to settle down. You wait for Sunday open because all currencies should have been 'reset'. You wait for a couple of days for the trend to set in.

At the start of formation of your next trend is when you initiate a trade with all currencies. If you are only trading a few pairs from the basket, you wait until the currencies shift from their positions.

At the next Sunday open, you leave your original IA intact, but launch the hedge script again to refresh the list. You will now have 28 currencies in the list. Wait another couple of days before opening new trades.

Repeat the process for the following week.

You can attempt to make trades now, however, you will have no idea how long the trend has been going on for and you could be getting in at the end. If you accept the risk, then by all means make the trades.

This strategy, requires a little bit of babysitting the IA.
  • #2,160
  • Jul 2, 2009 7:49am Jul 2, 2009 7:49am
Quoting Limstylz
My current profit order is as follows:

gbpchf : sell : profit
gbpusd : sell : profit
cadjpy : buy : profit
usdjpy : buy : profit
usdchf : sell : profit
eurusd : buy : profit
gbpjpy : buy : profit
audpy : sell : negative
usdcad : buy : negative
eurchf : buy : negative
audusd : buy : negative
chfjpy : sell : negative
eurgbp : sell : negative
eurjpy : sell : negative

Just want to check mine against someone else's as I had a few system problems earlier and had to open another demo account.

TIA

Hi Limstylz,

I use the IBFX group, and I see that you use the original. This should be good enough for your porposes, though.
This data was as of anound 0:00 GMT Today (7/2), or 8:00 PM EST, ( 7/1).

Hope this helps.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc ~$7.doc   < 1 KB | 563 downloads
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