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  • #117,061
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:38pm Jul 1, 2009 9:38pm
Quoting cobraforex
Some of you folks know that USDCHF is correlated to E/U.

Let's see where we get to.
USD/CHF M30: Decidedly strong relative volume at the lows, which suggests switching to longs. Also strong relative volume on the bounce up off the Bollinger band basis (roughly equivalent to the Open price, though not shown). Trix signals above basis and crossed up, and BB pinch almost confirmed with PA moving like a breakout to the upside.....

As such, looks at the moment like this could go higher, and if so, then the EU goes lower.
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  • #117,062
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:40pm Jul 1, 2009 9:40pm
Yep, I have a R in 83, that would drive RSI in OB.

Quoting gatorinla
its has to get above 781 and stay.. 781 may force it back down
  • #117,063
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:42pm Jul 1, 2009 9:42pm
Quoting FX-Petra
It really depends on the time of day, and how far you have to go to get the stops. In thin market conditions 2-5 million leveraged 100:1 could probably move the market 20-30 pips to make a run at stops. Much more if volume is normal---at least 10 times that number. That is why when you see a stop run to + 50 pips during London/NY crossover, you just have to sit back and say "Wow", the heavy hitters were out today.
People with enough money to move the market dont use leverage. Fisrt because they are the liquidity providers themselves, second because they don't need it. If you enter a position with lets say 500 million dollars the profits are real, 1:1 ratio and they still make good money.
  • #117,064
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:43pm Jul 1, 2009 9:43pm
Looks like a down day for GBP and EUR today. Most of the news releasing today are almost employment related and I doubt the data are going to be good.
  • #117,065
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:44pm Jul 1, 2009 9:44pm
Quoting cobraforex
Yep, I have a R in 83, that would drive RSI in OB.
its on my radar.. at the same time eu has to get past 4110 4099/4101
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,066
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:46pm Jul 1, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I don't know how else to explain it. Longs are liquidated, if that is what you mean. But when it is over the manipulators are neither long nor short...they just have the money.
They have the money if they were short and covered their shorts by stealing the long positions by manipulating the PA down to reach stops on long trades......getting the longs (buys) enabled covering the shorts.

On the other hand, if they were not short to begin with, then the taking of the longs now puts them in the long position themselves.

Either way, what you are suggesting is a climate not in favor of being short.
  • #117,067
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:50pm Jul 1, 2009 9:50pm
Nice analysis T@H

Anyhow it can be seen as a bear flag if 783 doesn't get solid broken.

Quoting traderathome
USD/CHF M30: Decidedly strong relative volume at the lows, which suggests switching to longs. Also strong relative volume on the bounce up off the Bollinger band basis (roughly equivalent to the Open price, though not shown). Trix signals above basis and crossed up, and BB pinch almost confirmed with PA moving like a breakout to the upside.....

As such, looks at the moment like this could go higher, and if so, then the EU goes lower.
  • #117,068
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:51pm Jul 1, 2009 9:51pm
Shorted at 1.4026 and again at 1.4036, and closed at 1.4115. Waiting now to see in which direction the next momentum impulse goes.
  • #117,069
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:57pm Jul 1, 2009 9:57pm
I'm still short from 1.4170, added another lot @ 1.4160... i think that we still haven't seen the end of it. I'm gonna add another @ 1.4090
  • #117,070
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:58pm Jul 1, 2009 9:58pm
am still short €/$ @ 4156 and long in Oil @ 68.38...waiting for another move and then close the positions
  • #117,071
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:05pm Jul 1, 2009 10:05pm
I am thinking price may pull back up to the 1.4130 area before next leg down. I am looking to short again at 1.4126+ area.
  • #117,072
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:13pm Jul 1, 2009 10:13pm
I'm short since the break of the inside bar (240 min time frame) and in a normal situation I will not move my SL from 1.42...but... since we have non farm tomorrow and liquidity is thin I'm moving my SL to +1 pip and lets see what will happens.
  • #117,073
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:15pm Jul 1, 2009 10:15pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aIm_39F.XrQ8

china appears to be slowing down coal imports also.



they also said some possitive dollar crap.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aRJIHDspaTzE
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,074
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:18pm Jul 1, 2009 10:18pm
Quoting Platypus
I'm short since the break of the inside bar (240 min time frame) and in a normal situation I will not move my SL from 1.42...but... since we have non farm tomorrow and liquidity is thin I'm moving my SL to +1 pip and lets see what will happens.
if it gets hit during nfp the spread could be very wide.. +1 will have little meaning
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,075
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:21pm Jul 1, 2009 10:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
if it gets hit during nfp the spread could be very wide.. +1 will have little meaning
Agreed....but drawdowns for me are a NO NO or it goes my way or I'm out. Does not bother me to have a small loss but I moved my SL because the jerks will may use thin liquidity to screw people around and in this situation +1 is better than -60.
  • #117,076
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:28pm Jul 1, 2009 10:28pm
Quoting Platypus
Agreed....but drawdowns for me are a NO NO or it goes my way or I'm out. Does not bother me to have a small loss but I moved my SL because the jerks will may use thin liquidity to screw people around and in this situation +1 is better than -60.
*L* you sound like a old timer. i thought you were newer.. 8 post screwed me.. my broker dont mind letting spread getting 30/40 pips at times.. its rare but it does happen..this is should be a volitile report.. if were over 10% look out below is my thought.. we got a possibilty of a see saw till then..with the other news..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,077
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:29pm Jul 1, 2009 10:29pm
ya ur rite ,today ve have good moves expected but what u think in which drections its take az ibit rate iz same ..... so what u say
  • #117,078
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:33pm Jul 1, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
*L* you sound like a old timer. i thought you were newer.. 8 post screwed me.. my broker dont mind letting spread getting 30/40 pips at times.. its rare but it does happen..this is should be a volitile report.. if were over 10% look out below is my thought.. we got a possibilty of a see saw till then..with the other news..
I'm shutting for the 500 pips minimum from here. And that is off course not for tomorrow but for the next 2 to 3 weeks
I will probably get out before the annoncement for what ever I can get and re enter later my +1 SL is just because of market manipulation due to low liquidity.
  • #117,079
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:33pm Jul 1, 2009 10:33pm
I've had a pretty good day, so I'm going to get a good nights sleep for a change. See you all for the ECB announcement. All positions closed except for 2 shorts running from 4190...S/L above 4250. Things should start tightening up a little after London open as all will be waiting for the big news day.
  • #117,080
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:39pm Jul 1, 2009 10:39pm
Quoting lucky ahmed
ya ur rite ,today ve have good moves expected but what u think in which drections its take az ibit rate iz same ..... so what u say
what i think dont matter..i have a short bias but i try not let it influence me much. but it does..i sold too early last night.. luckly i bought some insurance.. i shorted eu.. and after it passed where i thought it should not go i shorted uc.. many times .. enough to get 4.5% in my account..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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