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  • #116,121
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:08pm Jun 29, 2009 11:08pm
Is it going up...maybe
is it going down...maybe
could it go up...yes
could it go down ....yes
could it go sideways..yes
could it breakout...yes
Is forex a bitch...yes
will you make a million trading forex...no
will you go broke..twice..yes
  • #116,122
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:09pm Jun 29, 2009 11:09pm
Dear fellow EU follower...

Visit my thread as per link below:-
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=177174

Maybe this is the system that fits your trading style...

C ya all there...
  • #116,123
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:12pm Jun 29, 2009 11:12pm
Quoting psiholog
wasnt looking at the weekly but since you mentioned...note that 1.43 is the last major support/resistance level before 1.6....unless i am terribly wrong we should not go higher..from a technical and fundamental point of view. It would mark the end of the dollar as we know it....and contribute to the crash we saw in 08 all over again. Who wants to do that
If you are looking at support/resistance for trading opportunity, look at the weekly chart for AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY, especially GBP/JPY. The next major resistance is so far away.
  • #116,124
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:19pm Jun 29, 2009 11:19pm
Quoting psiholog
wasnt looking at the weekly but since you mentioned...note that 1.43 is the last major support/resistance level before 1.6....unless i am terribly wrong we should not go higher..from a technical and fundamental point of view. It would mark the end of the dollar as we know it....and contribute to the crash we saw in 08 all over again. Who wants to do that
"Who wants to do that?" ....... Maybe the "money changers", at the behest of the US Government/Treasury, as one way to ease the burden of mounting debt, i.e., pay off in devalued dollars.
  • #116,125
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:26pm Jun 29, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting Beacon
If you are looking at support/resistance for trading opportunity, look at the weekly chart for AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY, especially GBP/JPY. The next major resistance is so far away.
I see those and the potential for continuation of dollar weakness. However when looking at other pairs another factor comes in...which is the leading pair. Is it the Eur/Usd that dictates price action...is it the Eur/Jpy or one of the two you mentioned? In any case...when making a technical analysis on Eur/Usd by comparing it to other pairs its flawed from the start in my opinion. Note that those two pairs you mentioned went from all time highs to all time lows..or at least as far as my charts allow me to see. What im trying to get to is..while the eur/usd may move up 200pips more..those pairs you mentioned may move 1000....it is hard to assess correlations between these pairs when some are far more volatile then the Eur/usd. Just my 2 cents
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #116,126
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:28pm Jun 29, 2009 11:28pm
Quoting traderathome
"Who wants to do that?" ....... Maybe the "money changers", at the behest of the US Government/Treasury, as one way to ease the burden of mounting debt, i.e., pay off in devalued dollars.
You forget about the people we owe money to...specifically the chinese...do you think they want a worthless piece of paper aka the dollar..or do you think they want some REAL money in return for all the "borrowing" they gave us.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #116,127
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:31pm Jun 29, 2009 11:31pm
Quoting psiholog
I see those and the potential for continuation of dollar weakness. However when looking at other pairs another factor comes in...which is the leading pair. Is it the Eur/Usd that dictates price action...is it the Eur/Jpy or one of the two you mentioned? In any case...when making a technical analysis on Eur/Usd by comparing it to other pairs its flawed from the start in my opinion. Note that those two pairs you mentioned went from all time highs to all time lows..or at least as far as my charts allow me to see. What im trying to get to is..while...
If the effort is to discern which way the EU will start treking, it could be relevant to entertain the thought that it won't. It could do a lot of 100+ pip moves, up and down, for the rest of the summer and not really go anywhere.
  • #116,128
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:31pm Jun 29, 2009 11:31pm
Quoting psiholog
I see those and the potential for continuation of dollar weakness. However when looking at other pairs another factor comes in...which is the leading pair. Is it the Eur/Usd that dictates price action...is it the Eur/Jpy or one of the two you mentioned? In any case...when making a technical analysis on Eur/Usd by comparing it to other pairs its flawed from the start in my opinion. Note that those two pairs you mentioned went from all time highs to all time lows..or at least as far as my charts allow me to see. What im trying to get to is..while...
I am not correlating those pairs with EUR/USD.
  • #116,129
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:34pm Jun 29, 2009 11:34pm
Quoting psiholog
You forget about the people we owe money to...specifically the chinese...do you think they want a worthless piece of paper aka the dollar..or do you think they want some REAL money in return for all the "borrowing" they gave us.
Well, they have been highly manipulative regarding their own currency, and we tolerated it. Now maybe the shoe is on the other foot.
  • #116,130
  • Edited 11:51pm Jun 29, 2009 11:36pm | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting Beacon
Okay thats one of the reason but I there are alot of reasons for the strength of a currency.

You can compare alot of things:
1. Interest Rate: Eur higher than USD.
2. Trade Balance: Eur better than US.
3. Unemployment: US (9.4) has a higher unemployment than Europe (9.2).

Also with signs that the economy has bottomed, it is here where people are forward trading EUR back.

Again I am not that "wow" over EUR. I am actually more on long term long position on AUD rather than EUR. For EUR, I am just trading on short term trend.
interest rates change and then in a few days are priced in.. its been a while since a change.. it does not continue forever.. you got me on trade balance.. but wait till next release. e-z usaully doubles japans and japan is down 40%. thats how i come up with e-z down 20%.. yes unemploment is high in u.s. and if we go above 10% thursday thats bad news, but worse for e-z because it will export even less with less u.s. consumers.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,131
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:37pm Jun 29, 2009 11:37pm
Quoting Jay Walker
http://i42.tinypic.com/o9im39.jpg
yep.. bad economys are rabid dogs looking for a war. to keep peoples mind off how bad things are.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,132
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:43pm Jun 29, 2009 11:43pm
Quoting traderathome
If the effort is to discern which way the EU will start treking, it could be relevant to entertain the thought that it won't. It could do a lot of 100+ pip moves, up and down, for the rest of the summer and not really go anywhere.
True..that is a good possibility. Considering bond auction for us treasuries wont end until august/september as dictated by the last fed meeting last week...we could hang around these highs until the end of the year. Then again....alot rests upon the equities markets these days and if they take a turn for the lows sometime soon....well dollar strength will have no choice but to follow. This is all speculation on our parts with the present point of decision making resting around 1.4100
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #116,133
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:51pm Jun 29, 2009 11:51pm
STOCKS: Japan shares surge ahead 1.96% after U.S. VIX (fear gauge) closes at lowest level since before Lehman collapse

Source: DailyFX Forex Stream

We all know that the stock markets can turn on a dime though.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #116,134
  • Edited 12:14am Jun 30, 2009 12:00am | Edited 12:14am
Quoting Patience
STOCKS: Japan shares surge ahead 1.96% after U.S. VIX (fear gauge) closes at lowest level since before Lehman collapse

Source: DailyFX Forex Stream
they can close at 13000 again.. lipstick on a pig is lipstick on a pig. i want to be wrong.. tex and louisiana are supposed to be doing better then the rest of country. if this is true the rest of you must really suck..i see hundreds of new mt strip malls..this bank crises is not over. next wave is local banks.. the mom and pop companys..these are the real employers, not wall street. for stock market to sustain higher levels, they have to sell something. without a job we buy less.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,135
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:00am Jun 30, 2009 12:00am
Quoting pipmac
Is it going up...maybe
is it going down...maybe
could it go up...yes
could it go down ....yes
could it go sideways..yes
could it breakout...yes
Is forex a bitch...yes
will you make a million trading forex...no
will you go broke..twice..yes
my predict for tiday 1.4115-1.4105-1.4126
  • #116,136
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:02am Jun 30, 2009 12:02am
EU M15: Divergence suggests PA downside (which has started). The 1.4100 level is currently pivot zone. Trix signals are now below basis, so we may get a break down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #116,137
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:05am Jun 30, 2009 12:05am
Quoting gatorinla
they can close at 1300 again.. lipstick on a pig is lipstick on a pig. i want to be wrong.. tex and louisiana are supposed to be doing better then the rest of country. if this is true the rest of you must really suck..i see hundreds of new mt strip malls..this bank crises is not over. next wave is local banks.. the mom and pop companys..these are the real employers, not wall street. for stock market to sustain higher levels, they have to sell something. without a job we buy less.
That well sums it up, gatorinla!
  • #116,138
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:07am Jun 30, 2009 12:07am
Quoting gatorinla
they can close at 1300 again.. lipstick on a pig is lipstick on a pig. i want to be wrong.. tex and louisiana are supposed to be doing better then the rest of country. if this is true the rest of you must really suck...
I want you to be wrong as well. It's not like I'm not expecting another market meltdown either. I think it's only a matter of time. Hasn't average Joe Bloggs suffered enough though? Not that it matters. I don't have a pension but I feel sick for the people that do - especially the retirees that have worked hard all their lives.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #116,139
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:08am Jun 30, 2009 12:08am
Quoting avi
my predict for tiday 1.4115-1.4105-1.4126



1.43
  • #116,140
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:19am Jun 30, 2009 12:19am
Quoting gatorinla
... lipstick on a pig is lipstick on a pig. i want to be wrong..
Gator: don't worry be happy!


Gray skies are gonna clear up,
Put on a happy face!
Brush off the clouds and cheer up,
Put on a happy face!

Take off that gloomy mask of tragedy,
It's not your style.
You'll look so good that you'll be glad ya decided to smile!

Pick out a pleasant outlook,
Stick out that noble chin,
Wipe off that full-of-doubt look,
Slap on a happy grin!

And spread sunshine all over the place, just
Put on a happy face!

Put on a happy face!

Put on a happy face!

And if you're feeling cross and bickerish
Don't sit and whine.
Think of banana splits and licorice,
And you'll feel fine!

I knew a girl so gloomy,
She'd never laugh or sing,
SHe wouldn't listen to me,
Now she's a mean old thing!

So spread sunshine all over the place, just
Put on a happy face!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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