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EURUSD

  • #116,101
  • Jun 29, 2009 9:19pm Jun 29, 2009 9:19pm
Retrace or bounce?
  • #116,102
  • Jun 29, 2009 9:25pm Jun 29, 2009 9:25pm
Perhaps it wants to go south soon......
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  • #116,103
  • Jun 29, 2009 9:49pm Jun 29, 2009 9:49pm
Quoting Patience
Hey Gator - question for you if you don't mind. If oil stocks are full and India now has oil etc, do you think there is a chance that oil could go down while the US$ is depreciating?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aor5IykIMTdc read this. also india is able to get oil from deeper offshore wells then ever thought. the earth is covered mostly with water.. so more oil will soon be availible. china is buying all the oil it can get filling pits ect.
lets see what happens this week.. lots of things could change long term this week.. nfp possibly over 10%, wallmart buying less from china. e-zone exports down possibly down 20%.
oil would be down now. but free booze and guns keep the crazies on the warpath.. do you honestly think Shell cares if rebels attack rigs and shell makes more money..oil goes up.. follow the money..it doesnt take billions of dollars to manipulate currencies (fx). just some cheap booze guns and a handfull of crazies. then the media amplifies it. watch the commercials and you will see who pays the bills. then oil goes up and dollar weakens..all for a few thousand dollars to make billions/trillians..
find out whos bankrolling the crazies and follow the trail to the castle in the sand..follow the money. the same people who were short the stock markets on 911
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,104
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:06pm Jun 29, 2009 10:06pm
With the daily stoch still below 80. I could see one more push long before a change in trend. Two levels above here to watch for are .4150 and .4220, both rising trendlines. After that there's the psychological levels of .4250 and the high from June 3rd at .4337. All of those seem in range for a spike up before the daily stoch has exhausted itself.

The turn could happen at any moment, though. Such is the market.
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  • #116,105
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:08pm Jun 29, 2009 10:08pm
Is GBPUSD breaking out?
  • #116,106
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:12pm Jun 29, 2009 10:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
find out whos bankrolling the crazies and follow the trail to the castle in the sand..follow the money. the same people who were short the stock markets on 911
Mmmm, okay, that's about as clear as mud to me. I think you are saying that even though oil stocks are full, it's still going to go up because of all these tensions and the greed of some people? Am I on the right track?

Do you remember last year when oil was hitting the $140's that the Fed or some US body investigated the claims of speculation and it was found that there wasn't any. From memory, I think they said it was "supply and demand". Ha, ha. Yeah right. Was this another example of those secret handshake circles?
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #116,107
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:17pm Jun 29, 2009 10:17pm
Quoting Patience
Mmmm, okay, that's about as clear as mud to me. I think you are saying that even though oil stocks are full, it's still going to go up because of all these tensions and the greed of some people? Am I on the right track?

Do you remember last year when oil was hitting the $140's that the Fed or some US body investigated the claims of speculation and it was found that there wasn't any. From memory, I think they said it was "supply and demand". Ha, ha. Yeah right. Was this another example of those secret handshake circles?
well when the bottom dropped out who needed a bailout? the same ones screaming 200 pb. the same ones who owned the oil in storage on the east coast when tanks were full. guess what happend just about 1 year ago?? will it happen again? dono..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,108
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:20pm Jun 29, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
well when the bottom dropped out who needed a bailout? the same ones screaming 200 pb. the same ones who owned the oil in storage on the east coast when tanks were full. guess what happend just about 1 year ago?? will it happen again? dono..
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #116,109
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:26pm Jun 29, 2009 10:26pm
Quoting FX-Petra
It is puzzeling. As the Euro continues to rise it is seriously hurting any recovery in the Euroland economy. There has to be a level past which they cannot go in the current economic evironment.
hey man..my dream scenario...It has a good chance of happening now since we broke the triangle to the upside. If we go below 1.4100 soon again though...we will consolidate around 1.4100-1.3900 for a day longer at least. As to which value we cannot go above...consider that the 1.43xx high...IF we reach that high again i will do something i have never done in my 2 year forex career....set a sell with a 1000 pip target...LOL
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #116,110
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:37pm Jun 29, 2009 10:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
..but free booze and guns keep the crazies on the warpath..
booze, guns & crazies - hey, sounds like my neighborhood! We's good peoples tho.

Meanwhile, I still see tha H&S coming at me on the M30. At least he don't look like Mr. T this time...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #116,111
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:39pm Jun 29, 2009 10:39pm
Quoting Patience
Yes, I can see good scalping opportunities at this level (I wouldn't be aiming for 100 pips or anything), but if you get in at the wrong spot it might be dangerous. Gold is up, crude is up ... Do you usually trade Asian session?
I occasionally trade the NY close and Asia when price is offering the opportunity to trade at significant levels, like today
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #116,112
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:39pm Jun 29, 2009 10:39pm
Sometime the market don't move the way we think it should move... there are a lot of reasons why EUR is strengthen just like there are lot of reasons why it shouldn't.

If EUR can drop from 1.60 to 1.25, why can't it goes from 1.25 back to 1.60? Its better not to be too bias on one direction.
  • #116,113
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:42pm Jun 29, 2009 10:42pm
Quoting psiholog
I have been short biased all year long...yet most of the year has been bullish. So I try to not let my bias affect my trading too much. As much as the triangle suggests continued consolidation....I think the best scenario would be to retest the highs at 1.43xx first...BEFORE thursday. Why?...that would set up a massive double top on the daily charts and if that high holds it would set up a massive move down that the technicals agree with..not only bias.

Heres a chart of that dream outcome of mine. It involves a double top on the dailys followed...
If it hits 1.43, would it be a double top or a double bottom on the weekly chart? Careful.
  • #116,114
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:45pm Jun 29, 2009 10:45pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I occasionally trade the NY close and Asia when price is offering the opportunity to trade at significant levels, like today
It sometimes gets confusing on the forum, I'm saying my charts look bullish and you're saying you are shorting heavily - lol. I know you are only scalping though. Looked at your stats - nice one.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #116,115
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:47pm Jun 29, 2009 10:47pm
Quoting Beacon
Sometime the market don't move the way we think it should move... there are a lot of reasons why EUR is strengthen just like there are lot of reasons why it shouldn't.

If EUR can drop from 1.60 to 1.25, why can't it goes from 1.25 back to 1.60? Its better not to be too bias on one direction.
heres a reason.. europes economy sucks as does the u.s. economy.. unlike last year when the bottom fell out. europes economy was stronger as u.s. had began to weaken..check out japans employment.. they are just a few months ahead of what will happen in europe. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a90dAL94wEos

its not a bad number unless you compare it to their past.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,116
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:51pm Jun 29, 2009 10:51pm
Quoting Patience
It sometimes gets confusing on the forum, I'm saying my charts look bullish and you're saying you are shorting heavily - lol. I know you are only scalping though. Looked at your stats - nice one.
past history if you take out last year is we range in the summer months. if that trend continues then we are near high.. but anything can happen.. im not married to short position.. but a long has to prove self..in this pairs entire history it has few weekly closes above 4100.. it seems not to like this level.. but yes anything can change..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,117
  • Jun 29, 2009 10:53pm Jun 29, 2009 10:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
check out japans employment.. they are just a few months ahead of what will happen in europe. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a90dAL94wEos
http://i42.tinypic.com/o9im39.jpg
Not all sins are created equal
  • #116,118
  • Edited 11:25pm Jun 29, 2009 11:00pm | Edited 11:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
past history if you take out last year is we range in the summer months. if that trend continues then we are near high.. but anything can happen.. im not married to short position.. but a long has to prove self..in this pairs entire history it has few weekly closes above 4100.. it seems not to like this level.. but yes anything can change..
Yeah, I hear where you are coming from. Do I think the EUR should be at this level? No (not based on its fundamentals). But to me, it's not about the EUR, it's about the weakness of the US$. From memory, a few years back they screamed a lot louder.

I didn't explain myself properly the other night. I wasn't talking about $200 loaves of bread. I was thinking more along the lines of EUR at $1.60 or higher for an extended period of time, AUD and CAD at parity etc. That's what I meant about other countries having to bite the bullet with the exchange rate at a high level for longer than a few months. That would, at least, help the US trade deficit. They say that intervention will only work if the Fed, ECB, SNB, BoC, BoE, RBNZ, RBA etc etc all act in a concerted manner. But I don't think the Fed or Capitol Hill really want a strong dollar but that's just my personal opinion.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #116,119
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:02pm Jun 29, 2009 11:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
heres a reason.. europes economy sucks as does the u.s. economy.. unlike last year when the bottom fell out. europes economy was stronger as u.s. had began to weaken..check out japans employment.. they are just a few months ahead of what will happen in europe. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a90dAL94wEos

its not a bad number unless you compare it to their past.
Okay thats one of the reason but I there are alot of reasons for the strength of a currency.

You can compare alot of things:
1. Interest Rate: Eur higher than USD.
2. Trade Balance: Eur better than US.
3. Unemployment: US (9.4) has a higher unemployment than Europe (9.2).

Also with signs that the economy has bottomed, it is here where people are forward trading EUR back.

Again I am not that "wow" over EUR. I am actually more on long term long position on AUD rather than EUR. For EUR, I am just trading on short term trend.
  • #116,120
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:02pm Jun 29, 2009 11:02pm
Quoting Beacon
If it hits 1.43, would it be a double top or a double bottom on the weekly chart? Careful.
wasnt looking at the weekly but since you mentioned...note that 1.43 is the last major support/resistance level before 1.6....unless i am terribly wrong we should not go higher..from a technical and fundamental point of view. It would mark the end of the dollar as we know it....and contribute to the crash we saw in 08 all over again. Who wants to do that
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
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