Dirk du Toit: Bird watching in lion country
Though not specific to forex, one of my favorites is Den of Theives
- #21
- Jun 26, 2009 3:40pm Jun 26, 2009 3:40pm
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: FXCM Representative | 5,808 Posts
Though not specific to forex, one of my favorites is Den of Theives
- #22
- Jun 26, 2009 4:02pm Jun 26, 2009 4:02pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Blah blah blah | 1,410 Posts
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
- #24
- Jun 26, 2009 6:21pm Jun 26, 2009 6:21pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Blah blah blah | 1,410 Posts
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
- #27
- Jul 4, 2009 7:29am Jul 4, 2009 7:29am
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Price Stalker | 1,197 Posts
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
I would love to discuss this book intelligently if anyone else is so inclined.
(First, it should be mentioned that Taleb doesn't dwell on the forex
markets all that much; in fact, he's greatly interested in bonds,
equities and commodities, but I read both Fooled by Randomness
and The Black Swan with an eye to references to foreign exchange
and got very little in the way of results. He even refers to something
he calls "the gray swans", which are seemingly random patterns
that in truth are repeatable; this almost undermines his arguments
about the predominance of black swans.)
I've read both of his books, and I wondered how one trades
if they value random unanticipated events (black swans,
in Taleb's jargon) more than anything else. He pays little attention
to journalists or economists --
"journalism may be the greatest plague we face today" (p 39)
"the category of entertainers called Wall Street 'economists'
or 'strategists', who make pronouncements on the fate of the
markets but do not engage in any form of risk taking, thus have
their success dependent on rhetoric rather than actually
testable facts" (p 100)
"rule out any commerce with the babbling modern journalist" (p 60)
"(Victor Niederhoffer) also figured out the uselessness of the news,
as he showed that reading the newspaper did not confer
a predictive advantage to its readers" (pg 118)
And if you are a trader, reading the business section,
what else are you doing but looking for a predictive advantage
in the markets?
Taleb's jabs at neo-con dweeb George Will are hilarious:
"I was told that George Will was very famous and extremely
respected (that is, for a journalist). He might even be someone
of the utmost intellectual integrity; his profession, however,
is merely to sound smart and intelligent to the hordes."
The conclusion I derive from these comments is that we should
be leery of bloggers and trading journos because they are
making money in a gold rush by selling shovels to prospectors
and not by looking for gold themselves.
With this in mind, we ought to consider this passage that exemplifies his approach to trading:
I was once asked...to express my views on the stock market. I stated, not without a modicum of pomp, that I believed the market would go slightly up over the next week with a high probability. How high? "About 70%." Clearly, that was a very strong opinion. But then someone interjected, "But Nassim, you just boasted being short a very large quantity of SP500 futures, making a bet that the market would go down. What made you change your mind?" "I did not change my mind! I have a lot of faith in my bet! [Audience laughing.] As a matter of fact I now feel like selling even more!" The other employees in the room seemed utterly confused. "Are you bullish or are you bearish?" I was asked by the strategist. I replied that I could not understand the words bullish or bearish outside of their purely zoological consideration. ...my opinion was that the market was more likely to go up ("I would be bullish"), but that it was preferable to short it ("I would be bearish"), because, in the event of its going down, it could go down a lot. Suddenly, the few traders in the room understood my opinion and started voicing similar opinions. (pg 100-101)
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
- #30
- Jul 16, 2009 12:12pm Jul 16, 2009 12:12pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: I'm a Lemurians | 1,432 Posts
- #36
- Feb 20, 2010 6:48pm Feb 20, 2010 6:48pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,112 Posts
...........You know what makes Tiger Woods so good when he is on his game? He can be in the present moment and nothing else matters. .........
Off topic, sorry, but I couldn't resist.
- #37
- Feb 20, 2010 8:56pm Feb 20, 2010 8:56pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
I suggest to read this book.... this is not a forex book but the philosophy will help your trade...
KG
seriously...
i agree, the story revolves around perseverance, practice, patience, developing your potentials, reaching for your dreams.
