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  • #115,181
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:49pm Jun 25, 2009 7:49pm
Another bull flag on the way?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #115,182
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:54pm Jun 25, 2009 7:54pm
Quoting IMARICH1
What direction Gatorinla?...Are you saying a Short is not good here at 4032?
4175/79 is the center of universe in the zone we are in now.. lets see how long we stay.. we just may be vistiting..in the past we never stayed in this zone much.. not to say we cant now..we are at the 50% mark of move that topped out june 3.. that moves says either way.. zone pulls it to 4175/79.. bigger zone says 1.2... 4110 is 61.8%.... 4110 is a critical number... i have a bearish bias so what i think dont matter..had 4110 been rejected last time id give extra points to the bears.. but it wasnt..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #115,183
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:56pm Jun 25, 2009 7:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
i guess your right .. i could say "have a little patience" but i will not.
I was talking about this to another trader. Here's what I am looking at (very basic) because you are the No. 1 numbers man and you probably have all this anyway but I calculated the yearly ranges from 2000-2008 (so 9 years) and it averaged out at a 2099 pip yearly range.

The low for this year has been 1.2456. The trend to me is up so add 2,099 pips to the low and it brings us to 145.55. That's why I don't think Goldman's recommendation of 145.00 was an "out of the ballpark" call. Fairly safe if you ask me.

So I'm just assuming that we are going to do at least the yearly average range. It could overshoot or it could undershoot. I said in a post to AK4X a few weeks back that I thought we could Summertime slop/chop between the 38% and 50% monthly fibs (and we have been so far) and then do the usual Christmas ram. This ranging is always good for wiping a few accounts and confusing the $hit out of traders.

Now we could have market meltdown again and it could totally reverse at this point so going from the 143.00 high and subtracting the yearly average range it would take us back to 122.00 but if it was indeed market meltdown, it could overshoot and do a range of 3709 like it did in 2008.

And I'm fundamentally bearish on the US$ as well as technically at this point.

Anyway, here's my simple spreadsheet if you want to have a gander

Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Euro Yearly Ranges.xls   17 KB | 276 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #115,184
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:57pm Jun 25, 2009 7:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
4175/79 is the center of universe in the zone we are in now.. lets see how long we stay.. we just may be vistiting..in the past we never stayed in this zone much.. not to say we cant now..we are at the 50% mark of move that topped out june 3.. that moves says either way.. zone pulls it to 4175/79.. bigger zone says 1.2... 4110 is 61.8%.... 4110 is a critical number... i have a bearish bias so what i think dont matter..had 4110 been rejected last time id give extra points to the bears.. but it wasnt..
if you take out last year we always range in the summer.. if it makes you feel better look at the weekly and monthly candle.. they look better for bears to me.. and month/week is almost over
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #115,185
  • Jun 25, 2009 8:02pm Jun 25, 2009 8:02pm
I love range trading.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #115,186
  • Jun 25, 2009 8:10pm Jun 25, 2009 8:10pm
I would love it a little more if we would range south for a while.
  • #115,187
  • Jun 25, 2009 8:13pm Jun 25, 2009 8:13pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I would love it a little more if we would range south for a while.
Did you try to catch a break south on that flag?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #115,188
  • Jun 25, 2009 8:26pm Jun 25, 2009 8:26pm
It is looking pretty obvios that we are not going down anytime soon. My stops are at 4055, an I am not going to move them again (already moved from 4025). It looks like I am just going to have to take this one on the chin, lick my wounds, and move on.
  • #115,189
  • Jun 25, 2009 8:34pm Jun 25, 2009 8:34pm
Quoting FX-Petra
It is looking pretty obvios that we are not going down anytime soon. My stops are at 4055, an I am not going to move them again (already moved from 4025). It looks like I am just going to have to take this one on the chin, lick my wounds, and move on.
I know how hard that is to do. I hope it works out for the best for you.

If it were me though, undoubtedly, as soon as I pulled the trigger to kill the trade PA would dive south...

...anyway thats the inevitable trap of logic.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #115,190
  • Jun 25, 2009 8:43pm Jun 25, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting Patience
I was talking about this to another trader. Here's what I am looking at (very basic) because you are the No. 1 numbers man and you probably have all this anyway but I calculated the yearly ranges from 2000-2008 (so 9 years) and it averaged out at a 2099 pip yearly range.

The low for this year has been 1.2456. The trend to me is up so add 2,099 pips to the low and it brings us to 145.55. That's why I don't think Goldman's recommendation of 145.00 was an "out of the ballpark" call. Fairly safe if you ask me.

So I'm just assuming that...
im impressed... im using the conseption chart.. 50% puts us at 1.2 (excluding 1.6) one day...now what day??? what year?.. goldmen can create its own reality this is true... they say oil is going up and tadda..they say eu is going up same effect.. thats the reality.. one thing lots of u.s. lost most of 401k ect.. so we are saving more. throw in 10% unemployment. parents raising adult children.. and i buy less beamers, shamwows, tickle me elmos, ect. goldmen cant controll this. paulsons gone.
remember goldmen was broke before paulson saved his old company..its still kept hush hush but they were over leveraged on oil also as most of the others..and as the ship sank the rats screamed 200 per barrel..basic supply and demand if we dont buy china or the others exporters crap it all shuts down..no matter what they say about chinindia.. without jobs in the U.S. chinindia commoditys ect are top heavy.. if u.s. is not working neither will the rest.. it just takes time for the train wreck.. the higher we go the further we fall..check out japans exports down 40% on bloomberg.. e-z reports end of month along with wallmart..im selling all the pivots on the way up.. europes economy is worse off this time then it was last time..id bet the left one e-z exports are down 20% or more. not counting tourism.. stronger euro is killing e-z will it take 4$pg gas? i dont think so..we are close and all the goldmen used car salesmen better learn to plow..its all perception and the sheep continue to follow..without a job it all shuts down..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #115,191
  • Jun 25, 2009 8:58pm Jun 25, 2009 8:58pm
omg there's 1/2 a H&S on the M15.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #115,192
  • Jun 25, 2009 9:00pm Jun 25, 2009 9:00pm
I've seen this move all week... move up, consolidate....move up, consolidate.... and so on. For someone with a short bias, it has been frustrating. For example: Any short taken since about 12pm est today has had its fanny kicked. There has just not been any chance to take even modest profits.
  • #115,193
  • Jun 25, 2009 9:02pm Jun 25, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I've seen this move all week... move up, consolidate....move up, consolidate.... and so on. For someone with a short bias, it has been frustrating. For example: Any short taken since about 12pm est today has had its fanny kicked. There has just not been any chance to take even modest profits.

I am short with you my friend.. I have a feeling I will be stopped out soon. The price will push hard in one direction pretty soon. Best of luck to us both
  • #115,194
  • Jun 25, 2009 9:05pm Jun 25, 2009 9:05pm
i got a question.. your the logical one to ask this with the name.. (no insult intended).. they say we all lost a gazillion dollars in the stock market..where is the money since money is never lost it just changes hands? if so wheres the money?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #115,195
  • Jun 25, 2009 9:07pm Jun 25, 2009 9:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
i got a question.. your the logical one to ask this with the name.. (no insult intended).. they say we all lost a gazillion dollars in the stock market..where is the money since money is never lost it just changes hands? if so wheres the money?

Not sure if your asking me. But I believe the stock market is a zero sum game. Now this i just my personal views, so for ever dollar that one man/woman loses there is a winner on the opposite side of that trade.

Now when it comes to (BK) I am not exactly sure who win in that case!
  • #115,196
  • Jun 25, 2009 9:08pm Jun 25, 2009 9:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
i got a question.. your the logical one to ask this with the name.. (no insult intended).. they say we all lost a gazillion dollars in the stock market..where is the money since money is never lost it just changes hands? if so wheres the money?
It was never real in the first place. Just ink&paper froth that got worked up & then fizzled away.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #115,197
  • Jun 25, 2009 9:09pm Jun 25, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting The Fool
It was never real in the first place. Just ink&paper froth that got worked up & then fizzled away.

Great thought.. All paper profits, guess it isn't really lost until it's realized?
  • #115,198
  • Jun 25, 2009 9:10pm Jun 25, 2009 9:10pm
Quoting IMARICH1
What direction Gatorinla?...Are you saying a Short is not good here at 4032?
I think its definitely going to try and complete the W pattern on the hourly and challenge 4110. But the strongest longer term indication that I'm looking at shows up on the weekly where its begging to break south. I'm bullish til 4110-4160 zone, then fail, sell off to 3450.
  • #115,199
  • Jun 25, 2009 9:19pm Jun 25, 2009 9:19pm
Quoting stevefx
I think its definitely going to try and complete the W pattern on the hourly and challenge 4110. But the strongest longer term indication that I'm looking at shows up on the weekly where its begging to break south. I'm bullish til 4110-4160 zone, then fail, sell off to 3450.
I'm not quite a true believer in "Technical Analysis" - but, even if I were, I'd still feel like throwing that big ol pump and dump Mon-Wed hump out altogether
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #115,200
  • Jun 25, 2009 9:22pm Jun 25, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
im impressed...
Why thank you kind Sir. I hope it's not because I'm a girlie. I think it's tragic that this has happened (and how it has negatively impacted people) and I could bounce back and forth about this stuff with you all day. I don't think the world will ever be the same again although I'm sure we will pull out of this, it is just going to take a long, long time.

One of my favourite quotes is "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" by John Maynard Keynes but I'm sure you've heard that 10,000 times.

I hear what you're saying about EU. I am a little concerned about the EU/Latvia/Eastern Europe banking crisis/stress tests and that could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. I've been trading AUD mostly the last few weeks anyway but I gauge the sentiment in here as the AUD thread is not very active.

I think it makes sense to devalue the US$. I'm not claiming to be an economist but why not inflate the US out of debt, rebuild their economy and come back stronger. The rest of the world will just have to bite the bullet for a while. Another quote that still makes me giggle when I see it is "It may be our currency, but it's your problem'' - Treasury Secretary John Connally's taunt when the U.S. unhooked the dollar from the gold standard in 1971.

The world has slowed down - everyone is affected and people/countries will just have to adapt to that new level.

Oh, and I don't think it will go straight to 1.45. There's going to be more chop and slop and I am thinking they'll drop it down to 1.35 or so to suck everyone in and then ram it up 1,000 pips for the Xmas rally.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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