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  • #114,461
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:09pm Jun 24, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Not really. Let's take the stop run below 1.4000. Hedgefund traders target these areas, wait for a moment of low volume, and then pounce.

How do the Hedgefunds recognise that a stop-run is underway?
  • #114,462
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:09pm Jun 24, 2009 2:09pm
the thought is spend less/print less..boost dollar
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,463
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:09pm Jun 24, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting The Fool
The question begging is: how to use this knowledge? Is it possible to anticipate these market moves to one's advantage? Is it as simple as trying to fade the retail traders, with entries located at their probable stop loss zones? If you have any insight of course I would be interested...
Stop levels are (IMHO!) the best levels to get into trade but that's just me. It's the real edge because usually these levels will drive price to the direction of stops (remember that stop becomes market order when touched).
  • #114,464
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:11pm Jun 24, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
the thought is spend less/print less..boost dollar
so, was the news related to your thought or no?
  • #114,465
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:12pm Jun 24, 2009 2:12pm
Quoting TrooperCoope
Gonna try to get long around 1.3895 with SL 1.3883. TP A: 1.3950 and TP B: 1.4010.

chart
Triggers hit and I am in long. Now lets see.
  • #114,466
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:16pm Jun 24, 2009 2:16pm
Quoting The Fool
I always find what you, traderathome, psiholog, and others keep talking about re: stop-hunting, price manipulation, etc. I don't doubt that these actions are a big part of market movements. But not the whole story.

The question begging is: how to use this knowledge? Is it possible to anticipate these market moves to one's advantage? Is it as simple as trying to fade the retail traders, with entries located at their probable stop loss zones? If you have any insight of course I would be interested...
Retail traders do make money riding the backs of hedgefunds when they go on a stop hunt. Agian, I refer you to Darkstar's stop hunting thread, if it is still availble. The first thing you have to know is where the stops are. Thomson financial is a news service that gives some information on stop locations. Stop hunting is a very indepth topic that cannot be fully discussed in the confines of this thread.
  • #114,467
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:16pm Jun 24, 2009 2:16pm
Notch

Have a look at your email.

Let me know.
  • #114,468
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:17pm Jun 24, 2009 2:17pm
Turtle4x. So yes this is what I think. I think FED is less concerned about inflation right now. They just want to get the economy going up and people to get jobs. Which is double edged sword cause we cant for too long keep inflation concerns in the back burner. However, the reason inflation is not a concern is that most of the money that is being printed is held in the reserves and not spent yet. Banks are holding these dollars in the reserve pot. If they can bring the mortgage rates down then people will buy house and that will put a cap on the housing pain. Next would be employment this is where in my opinion is going to be issue govt will need to throw in another stimulus pckg for the unemployed to survive. How are we going to get the jobs? well thats the million dollar question one idea would be infras projects which will put a couple of million back to work and the realted admin job will put more ppl to work but definitly need ppl to find work or else there would be trouble. Maybe we shuld tell eveyone to do FOREX trading lol
  • #114,469
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:17pm Jun 24, 2009 2:17pm
Quoting Turtle4x
so, was the news related to your thought or no?
my interpertation. did not say buying more treas/not printing money to buy treas
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,470
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:17pm Jun 24, 2009 2:17pm
Quoting The Fool
I always find what you, traderathome, psiholog, and others keep talking about re: stop-hunting, price manipulation, etc. I don't doubt that these actions are a big part of market movements. But not the whole story.

The question begging is: how to use this knowledge? Is it possible to anticipate these market moves to one's advantage? Is it as simple as trying to fade the retail traders, with entries located at their probable stop loss zones? If you have any insight of course I would be interested...

Speaking for myself only...I do use this knowledge to my advantage. Here is a very simple example. Lets say pa is in a range between a strong resistance level and a strong support level. Based on whatever analysis I make...I think pa should be going down. That means I would probably sell at the high of that range. Right after I sell though...pa continues higher...actually breaks the range. At that point though...we dont know if it is a real break up..or just a false one. How does knowing about "key levels" help? If the break up is a false one...my stop loss would be higher then a "false" break up would go....and only a real break up would stop me out.

Another example is if I was flat to begin with...same scenario...I see that break up but consider it is "false"..aka manipulation or stop loss hunting for those short with stops too tight...I may opt to go short there on the false spike up.

It takes alot of time though to learn to interpret these moves...many thousands of hours watching the charts and even then...its still hard. For people like me and traderathome though..it is one of our specialties.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #114,471
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:18pm Jun 24, 2009 2:18pm
Atlast are you still in LONG?...thanks...Notch any numbers? Do you think 3862 later or now....thanks
  • #114,472
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:20pm Jun 24, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting notch
How do the Hedgefunds recognise that a stop-run is underway?
They are the ones doing it. They target an area with a large number of stops clustered together, drive the price until those stops trigger and the market cascades, and then dump postions with nice profit. This is forex, not equities....there is no such thing as collusion (in a legal sense).
  • #114,473
  • Edited 2:26pm Jun 24, 2009 2:21pm | Edited 2:26pm
I am looking for longs on EU on prices above 1.3850

FED failed to impress anyone imo

Quoting Xaron
Where do you read that this is good for the Dollar?

economy remains weak: BAD
interest rates low for some time: BAD
printing money: VERY BAD
purchasing stuff (with printed money): UH
purchasing debts (which creates new debts): AH

How shall that debts get paid? To attract enough foreign capital there are two ways: (1) Raise the rate to double digit values or (2) let the Dollar devalue to give a discount. So what is likely to happen next? Mhh?
stimmt
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  • #114,474
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:22pm Jun 24, 2009 2:22pm
Quoting bablo
Notch

Have a look at your email.

Let me know.
Nice one!
  • #114,475
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:23pm Jun 24, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting FX-Petra
They are the ones doing it. They target an area with a large number of stops clustered together, drive the price until those stops trigger and the market cascades, and then dump postions with nice profit. This is forex, not equities....there is no such thing as collusion (in a legal sense).
Ahhhh! I understand. Thanks.
  • #114,476
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:26pm Jun 24, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Retail traders do make money riding the backs of hedgefunds when they go on a stop hunt. Agian, I refer you to Darkstar's stop hunting thread, if it is still availble. The first thing you have to know is where the stops are. Thomson financial is a news service that gives some information on stop locations. Stop hunting is a very indepth topic that cannot be fully discussed in the confines of this thread.
Thank you, thanks psiholog. Maybe a thread dedicated to this subject would be something you would be interested in?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #114,477
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:27pm Jun 24, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting The Fool
I always find what you, traderathome, psiholog, and others keep talking about re: stop-hunting, price manipulation, etc. I don't doubt that these actions are a big part of market movements. But not the whole story.

The question begging is: how to use this knowledge? Is it possible to anticipate these market moves to one's advantage? Is it as simple as trying to fade the retail traders, with entries located at their probable stop loss zones? If you have any insight of course I would be interested...
Be aware of it, how it works, then forget it. Just trade your chart and watch the candles and PA. The less in your head while you're trading the better.
P.S. if you want a strategy of how to capatalise on where people place their stops, there are simple ones and profitable. Contact me and I will point you in the right direction.
  • #114,478
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:37pm Jun 24, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting Atlast
Be aware of it, how it works, then forget it. Just trade your chart and watch the candles and PA. The less in your head while you're trading the better.
P.S. if you want a strategy of how to capatalise on where people place their stops, there are simple ones and profitable. Contact me and I will point you in the right direction.

Atlast, I'd be very interested in learning more about those strategies.
Thanks for the help.
Alex
If only I knew then what I know now...
  • #114,479
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:37pm Jun 24, 2009 2:37pm
Update to last chart I posted. For those following and still in a trade. I took both bounces off the low, and partial TP already achieved. Be careful longs as selling pressure still strong.
Attached Image
  • #114,480
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:41pm Jun 24, 2009 2:41pm
3888 was hit i think or real close.. one platform i have shows 89 if we breach this and hold go down the list. 3837.. we bounced back to 3941 missed my 3943 number oh well shoot me..as said earlier i could get closer but not wasting the time just yet..original post has charts #114397

repost below.. chts at #114397

yeah i turned down the bs.. but it did pass my 68.2 (4108) mark but i was more concerned with where it closed.. my chart is based on a bigger time frame then most.. my top was 4099 on my big chart so i allow a bit of a cross. long wicks are part of it. my targets are the green lines but have a bias toward the lower one... and yes im still short. the smaller chart is based between green lines.. all my info is a little dated (pryer to nov. 2000/excluding candles) i dont change the rest..except to add moving (the move) pivots.. green lines are not exact ill have to do that with a caculator..but close enough to trade off. they are shorter term like weeks or a month.. there are other numbers.. but we are back in the same zone..center of this zone is 3888

shorter term numbers that are valid until broken are areas 4130 4100 4066 4044 4019 3990 3945

other groups 4354 4143 4013 3910 3804 3674 3465
4099 3938 3938 3888 3837 3775 3676

give or take a dozen on all the longer term numbers..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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