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  • #114,441
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:51pm Jun 24, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting pippenn
Really? Based upon the overall Up trend prior to the news today? Please explain or expand on your thoughts if you have time. Thanks
I'd like to add that I mean a longer term trend so not this intraday stuff.

We could see the 1.38 lows again and might even do a tricky false breakout to the south but I think we're heading to 1.45 now before some intervention kicks in. But that's only my opinion and I'm not a technical trader. But to me it looks too obvious when most people want to short the Euro... Can't describe it really, might be more a gut feeling. But just wait and see what happens. Might be too early to jump in a long position. Personally I trade very small so I don't care about +/- 100 pips...
  • #114,442
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:53pm Jun 24, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting samiru
Haaaahaa.... this is beuty at its best.Where are the "BULLS"?
THIS IS JUST THE BEGGINING!
im not bullish but a dont tease them either..bulls are always around.. i got 3 suits a bull one a bear one and a sheep suit.. you could soon be a sheep too... its forex..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,443
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:54pm Jun 24, 2009 1:54pm
Atlast.....thanks....no I did not get in because I was loading some new charts or templates and waiting on FOMC.....I was getting ready to take your last call but Notch came in with the 3862 and I paused....sorry....i am trying to see you both on the same page before I can risk any more.....Your pitchfork was dead on!!!!

Please continue to help if you will.....I have been hurt badly and it will take months to get it back but maybe not that long if i get into some good trades or am able to scalp confidently......

Thanks for your help! Good calls....are you still in the LONG on EU?
  • #114,444
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:55pm Jun 24, 2009 1:55pm
Damn I got lucky there, I had a pending sell order from yesterday at 1.3987 which I thought I had cancelled. I completely forgot about and it triggered just before the news! I was also holding my short from yesterday at 1.403 hoping the bus would turn round soon.

Was a risky move to hold these both until after the news and it took me about 10 attempts to finally close them with price changing so fast. Phew!

Someone posted earlier that they had over leveraged themselves and got out with green pips and was very lucky. This was also a good lesson for me today, too much stress to take, close losses quickly, don't over leverage. Trying to build the account too quickly leads to a lot of stress!
  • #114,445
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:55pm Jun 24, 2009 1:55pm
Quote
Mine kept a 2 pips spread .....no freeze

Could you please let me know what your broker is? Or anyone else whose spread stayed the same. I'm so pissed off. I thought Alpari is good, but thats unacceptable. So much money
  • #114,446
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:56pm Jun 24, 2009 1:56pm
lol @ Oanda. at 7:38 (20min after news) Oanda showing ~3935 when MT4 (from Alpari) showing the real price at ~3895, next second Oanda modifies the chart showing real prices from 7:35 and 7:38 is 3895.
good that I had a different price feed.
  • #114,447
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:56pm Jun 24, 2009 1:56pm
last night I put in a sell order to take at 1.4125 and thought I had put in a small mini lot. Instead I missed typed it in and got very very lucky.

Cashed out a 1.3917. I'm one lucky sucker, may have ended in a margin call and no more Freeweed for you.

http://tbn3.google.com/images?q=tbn:...07/08/omfg.jpg
  • #114,448
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:56pm Jun 24, 2009 1:56pm
So FED statement was:

- the economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time
- interest rates will stay low (0 to 1/4 percent
- they will purchase $300 billion treasury securities by autumn
- they will purchase mortagage-backed securities
- and purchase agency debt by the end of the year

SO: i think that is good for USD so short EUR/USD.
  • #114,449
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:58pm Jun 24, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
but they never mentioned deflation this time.. so that leaves room for hikes in the futur... long down the road..so maybe boost dollar..maybe.. *L*
The only thing worth noting in my opinion is the comments on treasuries.

"Today’s decision was unanimous. The Fed’s $300 billion Treasuries-purchase plan is scheduled to end in mid-September, according to the FOMC statement at the conclusion of the March 17-18 meeting, when it was announced. The Fed also committed to buy up to $1.45 trillion of housing debt this year. At its current rate, the Fed will reach the $300 billion of Treasuries by late August"

The full article is => http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aVkQkByhQ.jo


In other words...it is possible we will consolidate at these levels (like Fx-Petra said earlier this week)...before a true direction is determined. Its good that feds wont buy more treasuries then originally planned...but the fact they are still doing it for now wont help the dollar much either.

My honest opinion....scalping is the only way to go for a while...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #114,450
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:58pm Jun 24, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting antti_autti
Could you please let me know what your broker is? Or anyone else whose spread stayed the same. I'm so pissed off. I thought Alpari is good, but thats unacceptable. So much money
My broker saxobank had a 15 - 20 pips spread during the statement
  • #114,451
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:58pm Jun 24, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting antti_autti
Could you please let me know what your broker is? Or anyone else whose spread stayed the same. I'm so pissed off. I thought Alpari is good, but thats unacceptable. So much money
Mine is alpari-us 2 pips 4 decimal, with 5 decimal 1.8 all the time as far as I know for eurusd.
  • #114,452
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:58pm Jun 24, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting Xaron
I'd like to add that I mean a longer term trend so not this intraday stuff.

We could see the 1.38 lows again and might even do a tricky false breakout to the south but I think we're heading to 1.45 now before some intervention kicks in. But that's only my opinion and I'm not a technical trader. But to me it looks too obvious when most people want to short the Euro... Can't describe it really, might be more a gut feeling. But just wait and see what happens. Might be too early to jump in a long position. Personally I trade very small so I don't...

Xaron, i agree...i believe we are heading towards 1.45+ I am not trusting the big players with these pump and dump moves like what we have witnessed in the last 24hrs up up and then big down.

When you say you trade very small do you mean in terms of frequency or lot size?
  • #114,453
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:59pm Jun 24, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting antti_autti
Could you please let me know what your broker is? Or anyone else whose spread stayed the same. I'm so pissed off. I thought Alpari is good, but thats unacceptable. So much money
mbcfx
Better safe than sorry
  • #114,454
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:01pm Jun 24, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting Xaron
I'd like to add that I mean a longer term trend so not this intraday stuff.

Might be too early to jump in a long position. Personally I trade very small so I don't care about +/- 100 pips...


Xaron, long term I think you're spot on.



Posted in early May...
Quoting notch
The market really doesn't like these levels. Historically, it has spent a very short amount of time here. Historically, both both parties have agreed that these levels do not represent value but since the auction process caused an upward distribution from the following levels 1.35503 to 1.36013 on numerous occassions we favour demand being cut once price has been bid up to 1.46209.

Once 1.46209 has been achieved it is likely that there will be period of consolidation between 1.36905 - 1.46209. However, the auction process is likely to continue...
  • #114,455
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:01pm Jun 24, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting Turtle4x
So FED statement was:

- the economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time
- interest rates will stay low (0 to 1/4 percent
- they will purchase $300 billion treasury securities by autumn
- they will purchase mortagage-backed securities
- and purchase agency debt by the end of the year

SO: i think that is good for USD so short EUR/USD.
Where do you read that this is good for the Dollar?

economy remains weak: BAD
interest rates low for some time: BAD
printing money: VERY BAD
purchasing stuff (with printed money): UH
purchasing debts (which creates new debts): AH

How shall that debts get paid? To attract enough foreign capital there are two ways: (1) Raise the rate to double digit values or (2) let the Dollar devalue to give a discount. So what is likely to happen next? Mhh?
  • #114,456
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:02pm Jun 24, 2009 2:02pm
Quoting pippenn
When you say you trade very small do you mean in terms of frequency or lot size?
Lot size. My entries have usually a leverage of 0.5:1 or 1:1.
  • #114,457
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:03pm Jun 24, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
im not bullish but a dont tease them either..bulls are always around.. i got 3 suits a bull one a bear one and a sheep suit.. you could soon be a sheep too... its forex..
Yeah i agry with you completely,but when you find yourself in the right place at the right time you should be happy especially knowing that one day you would certainly be the sheep.
  • #114,458
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:05pm Jun 24, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting psiholog
The only thing worth noting in my opinion is the comments on treasuries.

"Today’s decision was unanimous. The Fed’s $300 billion Treasuries-purchase plan is scheduled to end in mid-September, according to the FOMC statement at the conclusion of the March 17-18 meeting, when it was announced. The Fed also committed to buy up to $1.45 trillion of housing debt this year. At its current rate, the Fed will reach the $300 billion of Treasuries...
usaully pryer to last year summer trades were just range trades.. we could still go that way too..last summer was a fluke..but who knows..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,459
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:06pm Jun 24, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Not really. Let's take the stop run below 1.4000. Hedgefund traders target these areas, wait for a moment of low volume, and then pounce. Once the stops are triggerd, price cascades downward and gives them a chance to close out those shorts that they used to push the market over edge in their favorable direction. This is why we usually see pull back shortly after a stop hunt. When you and I look to make money in the market, we do not think about liquidity. A trader with 50 million has to think about areas of liquidity and how to create them. Now,...
I always find what you, traderathome, psiholog, and others keep talking about re: stop-hunting, price manipulation, etc. I don't doubt that these actions are a big part of market movements. But not the whole story.

The question begging is: how to use this knowledge? Is it possible to anticipate these market moves to one's advantage? Is it as simple as trying to fade the retail traders, with entries located at their probable stop loss zones? If you have any insight of course I would be interested...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #114,460
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:08pm Jun 24, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting Xaron
Where do you read that this is good for the Dollar?

economy remains weak: BAD
interest rates low for some time: BAD
printing money: VERY BAD
purchasing stuff (with printed money): UH
purchasing debts (which creates new debts): AH
Economy 1.0

(but i could be wrong thou)

I wonder what do "seniors" in here think
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