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  • #113,941
  • Jun 24, 2009 12:57am Jun 24, 2009 12:57am
Quoting FX-Petra
Well, it looks like no new high for Asia....unusual, and encouraging for shorts. I have the daily pivot and the 38.2 fib of the most recent move in the same area, around 1.4005. Maybe we can take a breather and test that area.
do you have charter for your ip .. and if so did it cut out about 45 m ago?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,942
  • Jun 24, 2009 12:59am Jun 24, 2009 12:59am
Quoting FX-Petra
Central Bank acutions:
2. Demand at auction low--- lower intrest rates for bonds, generally bad for the currency.

However, this market is whacked out right now. Oil is going down again and Euro is sprinting upward. Equities flat or down, Euro sprints upward. All the usual correlations are, at this point, tenious (at best).
Correlations I find tend to pan out on longer term trades, not so much daily, and there's often some daily lags, that's why I gave up a couple years ago paying too much attention on the day when trading otherwise it can play havoc with your position, but I like to keep an eye on the general correlation trend. Gator is quite good at following the correlations.
I believe there's 5 year US treasury note sale today (haven't double checked), not expected to go well. That would have a positive effect on Euro. Hmmm
  • #113,943
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:01am Jun 24, 2009 1:01am
Quoting gatorinla
do you have charter for your ip .. and if so did it cut out about 45 m ago?
No problem charter---At&t laptop connect for back up.
  • #113,944
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:05am Jun 24, 2009 1:05am
Quoting trading801
???

i meant Tickershuffl .. he said ecb offering loans.. i wish to know normally when such loans are offered, the euro raises in value or drop...
It's late for me and I'm getting a little punchy and having trouble formulating what it all means bt I'll give it a shot and let others on the forum correct my thought process if needed.

Trichet has led the world to believe that the EZ was thru th worst of the crisis but this move tells me that the banks are far from solid ground.

From what I understand the EZ can't simply print money to purchase gouvernment paper like the has done. Tha said they (The EZ) has but one crd left to play. Raise the cash by selling government paper. ie Bonds.

If I'm not mistaken Spain also raised 30 Billion recently by selling bonds.

If EZ banks start to faulter the currency is then in deep doggy doodoo.

Trichet needs the cash to shore up the Euro banks.

To me this spells out weakness for the Euro. But hey, Trichet and company seem to think that all is peachy or may they have adopted the stiff upper lip from the other side of the channel. ou be the judge.

I can see a final push up to 1.4179 but evetully this puppy is gonna fall.

Holding shorts and will add on a move up.

Option 2: I'm in left field and about to take a bath all alone.
  • #113,945
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:14am Jun 24, 2009 1:14am
i talked to my copper contact yesterday he said china is still not buying.. he also said he was holding his copper because price had gone down $.14 but had gone back up $.04 he and others hold it to drive price up some.. if your familiar with casting metals.. they usaully want a constant supply.. this shows they have stockpiled enough.. either to drop price due to lack of demand or their shelfs are full cause u.s. sales are stagnet. we got the same situation with oil..storage tanks are full... also baltic shipping rates are going down..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,946
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:16am Jun 24, 2009 1:16am
Quoting FX-Petra
No problem charter---At&t laptop connect for back up.
charter cuts mine late at night often.. they also did phone/tv tonight
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,947
  • Edited 1:29am Jun 24, 2009 1:18am | Edited 1:29am
Here is an idea for a NO risk trade.

Long euro/usd Long Usd/Cad


While Us equities correct dollar is week---good for eur/usd
While US equities correct oil is weak------good for usd/cad

When oil corrects cad is weak-----good for usd/cad

RESULT.

Dollar weakness short term will drive euro up. but it won't drive down usd/cad since oil is overbought and will most likely correct. Leaving usd/cad to trend higher or range.

Long Eur/usd and long Usd/cad is also a hedge trade

So you can't loose!!

Or can you

Edit. this is not a scalp trade. this is more like a 2-5 day trade. you will need to give either pair a chance to bounce back after a strong move by the other.
  • #113,948
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:21am Jun 24, 2009 1:21am
Quoting bablo
It's late for me and I'm getting a little punchy and having trouble formulating what it all means bt I'll give it a shot and let others on the forum correct my thought process if needed.

Trichet has led the world to believe that the EZ was thru th worst of the crisis but this move tells me that the banks are far from solid ground.

From what I understand the EZ can't simply print money to purchase gouvernment paper like the has done. Tha said they (The EZ) has but one crd left to play. Raise the cash by selling government paper. ie Bonds.

If...
im with ya,, usd may suck.. but it sucks less then euro.. but what i think dont mean crap..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,949
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:30am Jun 24, 2009 1:30am
oh price is trying to errupt again
  • #113,950
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:33am Jun 24, 2009 1:33am
Quoting pipmac
Here is an idea for a NO risk trade.
That's where I stopped reading.

No risk trade is just as common as no risk bareback intercourse with $2 hookers.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #113,951
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:36am Jun 24, 2009 1:36am
Quoting Jay Walker
That's where I stopped reading.

No risk trade is just as common as no risk bareback intercourse with $2 hookers.

JW r u long on the eur or like most of us stuck with shorts LOL for a SUPER HIGH RISK trade
  • #113,952
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:39am Jun 24, 2009 1:39am
i stealed 10 pips from eur usd now
i see it will not go up further now
maust make a retracement
THE CREATOR AND OWNER OF S.N.M "Serve no Master" Trading Stystem
  • #113,953
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:39am Jun 24, 2009 1:39am
Resistance levels up 1.4139 and 1.4181. The final push up before the correction.
  • #113,954
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:39am Jun 24, 2009 1:39am
Well, that's just great. Now I'm going to have to redraw all of my fibs!
  • #113,955
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:42am Jun 24, 2009 1:42am
L
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,956
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:42am Jun 24, 2009 1:42am
Quoting Atlast
Resistance levels up 1.4139 and 1.4181. The final push up before the correction.
i hope of a correction. i still hold my short position
  • #113,957
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:43am Jun 24, 2009 1:43am
Quoting Jay Walker
That's where I stopped reading.

No risk trade is just as common as no risk bareback intercourse with $2 hookers.
either way you can't loose much since your hedged. Whatever you loose from one you gain back from the other.

Lets pretend that Euro is strong and shoots up but it also drives down usd/cad which leaves you at Breakeven. Then, euro starts to range trade and usd/cad bounces as the pressure is released. IT bounces because oil is weak and CAD has no strength.
  • #113,958
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:44am Jun 24, 2009 1:44am
Quoting trading801
JW r u long on the eur or like most of us stuck with shorts LOL for a SUPER HIGH RISK trade
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=255
Not all sins are created equal
  • #113,959
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:46am Jun 24, 2009 1:46am
Hi all...

I myself only focusing my study on this pair. Visit my thread and give your comments/opinions, or you can even try my system @ link as below:-

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=177174

For those who having trouble trading using higher TF, my system might help you out...

All the best and c you guys there.....
  • #113,960
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:47am Jun 24, 2009 1:47am
Quoting pipmac
either way you can't loose much since your hedged. Whatever you loose from one you gain back from the other.

Lets pretend that Euro is strong and shoots up but it also drives down usd/cad which leaves you at Breakeven. Then, euro starts to range trade and usd/cad bounces as the pressure is released. IT bounces because oil is weak and CAD has no strength.
Maybe I'm being dense.

One trade is up, one is down. It's like juggling.

So unless there's a magical exit strategy where you can exit both positions in the black, then you're doomed to either constantly replace one exited trade by another or to take a bath on one of them.

Again, maybe I'm being incredibly dense and if I am, I apologize in advance.
Not all sins are created equal
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