EURUSD

A gent named Skunny did on this site mate. It is the "correct" way to fib where it isn't psychological voodoo. Fib are predictive etc..you precisely measure price moves but I suggest reading his thread and wading through the irrational exuberance, bitter denial and random talk.

He was spot on. I believe also Scotty B was posting there towards the end from what I read. Basically boils down to some concepts that appear to have gotten him flamed off of the board. Which is shame. Since it is the most valuable trading method here. In my opinion. None of the pulls were random or lucky. I think it is worth anyones time to study to not have to guess at the market. To each his own and best to all. Watch my charts and see, better yet read the thread.

Cheers!

GLGT

TK

heres what happend yesterday to help weaken dollar later in evening

ECB council member Axel Weber said yesterday policy makers have already used up their room to lower borrowing costs. Fellow member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said the central bank’s benchmark interest rate of 1 percent is “appropriate” and “correct,” indicating the euro-area’s rate will stay higher than the U.S. benchmark.

e-z better not get confident they are next.


Japan Export Slump Deepens, Casting Doubt on Recovery (Update3)


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By Jason Clenfield
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?p...d=it4M8f5r_X_0

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s export slump deepened in May, casting doubt on the nation’s growth prospects as the economy struggles to emerge from its worst postwar recession.
Shipments abroad dropped 40.9 percent from a year earlier, more than April’s 39.1 percent decline, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of economists surveyed was for a 39.3 percent decrease. From a month earlier, exports fell 0.3 percent, the first deterioration since February.
Declines in shipments to Asia accelerated for the first time since January, damping hopes that demand from the region will spur a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. A worldwide stock market rally stalled this month on concern that the global recession will deepen.
“Final demand just isn’t picking up and it’s still hard to expect a very strong economic recovery,” said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. Kato said the economy will “barely expand” in 2010 once the effect of Japan’s own economic stimulus measures fades.
The yen traded at 95.38 per dollar at 12:05 p.m. from 95.25 before the report and a three-week high yesterday. The Topix stock index fell 0.2 percent, extending its decline to 5.4 percent since reaching a seven-month peak on June 12. The MSCI World Index has lost 3.1 percent this month.
Cars, Chips
Steel, autos and semiconductors led the slump. Shipments to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, fell 29.7 percent, more than April’s 25.9 percent. Exports to Asia slid 35.5 percent from 33.4 percent a month earlier.
China’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) in stimulus measures haven’t been enough to offset sales declines in the U.S. and Europe.
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. said this month that sales in China haven’t improved as much as the company had anticipated. The world market for digging equipment will contract by more than a third in the first half of the business year and rebound only 6 percent in the second half, according to company President Michijiro Kikawa.
Shipments to the U.S. fell 45.4 percent in May after dropping 46.3 percent in April, the ministry said. Exports to Europe slid 45.4 percent from 45.3 percent.
The World Bank this week downgraded its forecast for global growth, saying the world economy will shrink 2.9 percent this year, worse than the 1.7 contraction predicted in March.
Toyota’s U.S. Sales
Toyota Motor Corp. said yesterday the outlook for car sales in the U.S. remains uncertain. The U.S. economy is forecast to shrink at an annual 2 percent pace in the current quarter and grow 0.5 percent in the next three months.
The Bank of Japan and the government both said last week that the recession is moderating because companies are increasing production to replenish stockpiles. That rebound in output may wane in the absence of a pickup in exports.
“It’s been widely considered that falling inventories overseas have been supporting Japan’s exports,” said Kato at BNP Paribas. “Even if exports improve in June, they would be around 80 percent of their peak, making it difficult for the economy to expand.”
Central bank Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said this month he’s “cautious” about the prospects for a sustained recovery. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict Japan will resume growing in the three months to June 30 after last quarter’s record annualized 14.2 percent contraction. They said growth will peak at 2 percent next quarter and grind to a halt in 2010.
Imports slid 42.4 percent from a year earlier, and the trade surplus narrowed 12.1 percent to 299.8 billion yen ($3.1 billion), the Finance Ministry said.
“With the world economy in recession it’s a tough story for Japan,” said Jan Lambregts, head of financial markets research at Rabobank International in Hong Kong. “The U.S., the euro zone, the rest of Asia have to recover, and then Japan can benefit.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at [email protected]

Any run back to 1.406xx I think I am going to bail on my shorts. This thing is not retracing and there is no news scheduled today (before NY) that could turn this sentiment around. If no 1.4060's then I will be stopped out at 1.4125.

ez reports about a week after japan.. they will have simuliar news as japan... hey what part of n shore?

gatorinla can you guide me on this...

Ponchy

I was short but I eliminated it at break even 1.41. The shallow pull back is a good indication this thing wants to go up. Looking to long it, but I am a bit concerned about the overbought level-upside will probably be limited to 100-150 pips. I like to long it here and then short at 1.42.50-1.43.

he said wait n see what happens...above 1400 he gave a target 1 and some others 2 or 3 below i believe.. might want to wait till after fed says what they have to say..

me 2 p center

???

i meant Tickershuffl .. he said ecb offering loans.. i wish to know normally when such loans are offered, the euro raises in value or drop...

Im in short mode - no breakout this session, any attempt will probably be false and unlikely to make it higher than 1.4130. Euro is overbought and running into heavy resistance. Retrace down is more likely

man i dont know what to tell ya.. i got a short at 4105 now...im gonna ride it out for a while and add more if we go higher..i think that japan post from bloomberg of 40% decline will be 20% for ez...

Central Bank acutions:

1. Demand at auction is good-- higher intrest rates on bonds, generally good for the country's currency.

2. Demand at auction low--- lower intrest rates for bonds, generally bad for the currency.

However, this market is whacked out right now. Oil is going down again and Euro is sprinting upward. Equities flat or down, Euro sprints upward. All the usual correlations are, at this point, tenious (at best).

ok ok ..


thanks though buddy

if people are pulling money out of stocks or commodities they may have a good sale..

here we go!!

I'm only convinced its a short if it stays below 1.4057.

I expected a retest at 1.4111 and it missed by a few pips so hopefully that retest is over

Well, it looks like no new high for Asia....unusual, and encouraging for shorts. I have the daily pivot and the 38.2 fib of the most recent move in the same area, around 1.4005. Maybe we can take a breather and test that area.

IMHO today is not a day to trade E/U as we are in a very unpredictable environment, i dont think big money said their last word. Fed is today so i think its best to refrain from trading today unless you picked up E/U few days ago

yeah, your right..