StewartR - I want my trading to be boring.

Trend up
Oscillator hooking
BUllish bar off of 38% fib.

I dont feel confident on this trade. Usually my gut feel is pretty good at keeping me out of poor trades. However the trade is on and now I wait.

There is an enormous spread on this pair (10 pips) which also doesn't make me feel to good.


Edit: Result - loss within 1.5 hours.
A few times I have said I dont feel confident about a trade and its always ended up as a loss.
Advice to self: leave these weaker price action bars alone. Just trade the very very best ones. In other words a Pin Bar with a long nose or an outside bar that is clearly outside. The trigger candle on this trade was technically bullish but not clearly bullish. Patience!

here's a better pin bar
it also bounced of a 38% fib
Exited at 1:1 when my TP was hit - because its time to goto sleep again (I sleep during the london open). Quick 100 pip gain.

The difference between this one and my previous trade was 1. this had a longer tail on the pin bar and 2. time of day (this trade is the start of the london session when things usually heat up)

Full position size.
Daily chart.

Reason for entry:
Downtrend: moving average pointing down
Pull Back gone enough: Oscillator Hooking from Extreme
Price resuming trend: Pin bar
Entry point: pull back to 38% of pin bar.


Price has already moved .5 r (ie 60+ pips) but I am leaving my stop at the pin high. If the low of the pin breaks, the next support is further than 2:1 away.

Time to practice patience. My entry was on a daily chart. The shorter term charts are setting up for a long but I have to ignore them and stay with the daily.

If I lose, I will only lose 1R.
If I win, I will make 2R. 2R is worth waiting for (it makes taking losses much easier).

Attachment Hmmm - nervous now.

I entered this trade 3 minutes before the close of the 4 hour candle. At that time it was an excellent bearish outside bar.

By the time I had set my orders and was filled there was about 30 seconds before the close of the candle - and it was no longer a bearish bar.

There is no doubt I would not be in this trade if I had looked at the charts 3 minutes later than I did.

Entered because - downtrend + pull back + beob.


25 minutes later it closed at a loss. -1R

The daily usdcad is pointing down and my position has been placed.
However the 4 hour just gave an equally valid long signal.

What to do?

There is significant resistance above the 4 hour pin so I'll leave the 4 hour alone and just ride my daily to wherever it goes. This issue will present a good opportunity to practice letting go of the emotions of trading.

Loss on the EurGbp.
If I had come to the charts at 6.03 instead of 5.57pm (Aus time), there is no way I would have taken that trade.
This is one of the risks of entering on a pull back. I never know when the pull back is actually a reversal.

For now, I'll stick with the pull back entries. The chance at 2:1 is so much greater than a breakout entry.

This is a small position. Taken in a small account. Not my full trading account.

I have not taken a blind entry before.

50% retracement
price pivot zone
oscillator at extreme

Small stop relative to take profit.

Exited: just at the end of the friday session after price bounced off the round number (1.3400).
Price went 1.5:1. I exited after the bounce off the round number and took 1.1
I only needed a 30 pip stop loss. But I gave it 61 pips

This trade is the perfect setup.

1. Price Pivot Zone
2. Pull back - oscillator confirming
3. Pull back to 50% fib
4. Downtrend (if you put the m.a. on the chart)
5. Pin bar

I did not take this trade because I was sleeping.

Trade management
Entry on break of pin bar and stop at 62% of pin bar paid 2:1 on the next candle. Or a stop at the top of the pin paid 1:1 on the next candle.

Blind Entry: Place your entry order where you believe support/resistance will reverse the price.

Pros: Gives the best entry price of the 3 types of entry.
If you are right, your risk reward can be awesome.

Cons: I have no idea how you objectively define your risk for such a trade. Perhaps 1 x ATR(5)? Or perhaps just 'somewhere' on the other side of the s/r zone? Trades are taken totally against the current lower-time-frame trend.

Example: on the attached chart, the entry would have been 96.95 (just below the round number and 50% fib and ppz), and the trade went against you by 23 pips and then for you by 90+ pips on the next candle. Looks like a fantastic trade. But since you dont know that price is going to move against you by 20 pips or 40 pips, you have to put your stop somewhere sensible (like on the other side of the 62% fib or other side of s/r) which was 50 pips away.

In the chart attached, it looks like a perfect trade for a quick 2:1 winner.

Entry on retrace of 4 hour trigger candle: You have a pin bar or outside bar and you put your entry at a 38% retracement of that candle.

Pros: Gives you some confidence that the s/r held (pin bar). Gives you a better entry than the breakout entry. Gives better risk:reward. Gives you an objective place to put your stop (extreme of pin). Usually gets you into profit quickly and takes advantage of the phenomenom where almost every candle retraces to about 30% before the next candle closes.

Cons: Entry is against the short-term (current) trend. Entry may occur before the pin bar is defined as a pin bar (ie extreme not broken yet). You miss out on the very very very best trades where the market just takes off and doesnt look back.

In the chart attached, you would have missed the trade entirely.

Entry on breakout of trigger candle: enter when the extreme of the candle has been broken.

Pros: enters only when price is moving in the direction of your trade. Gives a high probability entry. You never miss a winning trade. You always miss a losing trade that never triggers a breakout-entry but WILL ALWAYS trigger the 38% retrace entry.

Cons: Gives a lower reward to risk ratio. Price has already moved away from s/r by the full length of the trigger candle, which means that there may not be much further to go before a decent size retracement.

In the chart attached, this would have given 1:1 winner.
____________________________
So what is best. Here's my feelings.
If I see very strong PPZ + an 'extended' run into the s/r area with no pull back along the way (ie a one way market) + a fib confluence, then I see nothing wrong with taking a small position and aiming for 3 to 1 or more. (At present I am not confident in this methodology so only take these in my small 'play' account).

If I see a good setup, place entries for BOTH the retracement trade AND the breakout trade at the same time. When one is triggered, cancel the other. Use a 62% stop on the breakout trade and target 1.5:1.
Use the extreme of the candle for a retracement entry and target 2:1

Pin bar.
From resistance
Near 38% fib
downtrend
oscillator hooking

TP hit. 1:1

4 hour
uptrend
pull back to 61.8% fib
pin bar
oscillator
win 1.5:1

Trend
pull back to fib and ppz
osc
short nose pin
enter on break to new high (green arrow)

win 1.5:1

Long entry
Uptrend
PUll back
Reversal candle (pin bar)
Break to new high (entry)

Stop under the eye of the pin bar

Error: exited for a small profit when I saw the 4 hour setup a short trade. I should have let it ride (note: follow up again later and see what would have happened)

Update. The 4 hour reversal paid 2:1 and worked well. In hindsight, I did the right thing to exit the daily long and go short. I will have to sort out for myself what I'll do in future about conflicting signals on different time frames.

Hmm - my feelings say I acted impulsively and entered too soon.
I was long the daily and saw this setup (short) on the 4 hour and I took it.

downtrend - moving averages
oscillator - pointing down
price action - this is only a neutral bar. BAD MOVE.
Entry - should have waited for a break of the low and set stop at 62% of the bar. But ..... I have taken the trade.

Last time 3 times I've felt bad about a trade when entering, were all losses. Lets see what happens.

The 4 hour short worked out well. Looks like my gut feel was just nervousness from the daily triggering a long trade.

Paid 2:1 (but there was more in it, its just that I have no idea how to let a profit run - I only have an idea of how to win more often than lose, and get 1:1 1.5:1 and the ocassional 2:1

Downtrend
Pull back to 50%
Oscillator
Pin Bar
Short on break to new low
Stop at 62% of pin bar
TP at 1.5:1

doubt that I will place any trades this week
travelling overseas
irregular access to the markets only

I really like the way you evaluate your trades. Nice job! I'll be following along.

Was overseas last week. No trades taken.
Been watching every 4 hours this week and found my first trade today (Thursday usa time).

I've been watching the markets and waiting for my set up to come. It feels good to know what my setup is and let other opportunities go by.

Short Eur USD.

Ive been watching this for about 12 hours and finally got my pin bar.

Reason for trade:
1. Down trend definition has been met (Move averages pointing down)
2. Pulled back far enough (61.8% fib and oscillator hooking)
3. Trigger to enter (Pin bar)

My stop is at the extreme of the pin bar. But a closer look (now that I'm updating my records here) indicates that I could have moved the initial stop closer. Ideally just above the eye of the pin bar (where the grey horizontal line is). This would have allowed me to double my position size with the same risk.