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  • #113,881
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:20pm Jun 23, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting traderathome
Do you believe the market movers pumped the EU to further make the Dollar look bad, and were taking the short side of the resultant long orders?
I don't know. If I had to guess, I would say probably not all of them, if any. Some may have tried to. Be that as it may, whether market movers did or didn't do something, the dollar is becoming more appealing for a long...in my opinion.
  • #113,882
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:20pm Jun 23, 2009 6:20pm
yea there is no reason for them to short the dollar....
  • #113,883
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:24pm Jun 23, 2009 6:24pm
Do you all really thing that the USA will collaps?

I see the rest of the world never prepared for this option of devaluation and out and out kaos.

Even the people that had been standing at the top of the hills screaming that a new world currency may replace the greenback.

After the Bric meeting : "US dollar will remain th world reserve curreny"

So much for the new world currency.

Todays move could have been caused by a number of things, one of which was purchasing EUROs to buy EZ bonds.

The other could have been the Trasury auction. Devalue the Greenback and purchase more notes for you Euro or Yen.

Yet another possibility was the attempt to drive down the pair failled penitrate the monthly PP at 1.3828.

When that happens the SM may run the pair up to get more people onto the ride before another attempt.

OR

The world is on its way to hell in a hand cart.

Time will tell - But the USA will recover make no mistake.

And no I'm not an American.

Time for me to get off my soap box.

Let the attacks begin.
  • #113,884
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:38pm Jun 23, 2009 6:38pm
Quoting bablo
Do you all really thing that the USA will collaps?

I see the rest of the world never prepared for this option of devaluation and out and out kaos.

Even the people that had been standing at the top of the hills screaming that a new world currency may replace the greenback.

After the Bric meeting : "US dollar will remain th world reserve curreny"

So much for the new world currency.

Todays move could have been caused by a number of things, one of which was purchasing EUROs to buy EZ bonds.

The other could have been the Trasury auction....
No attacks, Bablo. It is just when a currency pair makes a sudden and dramatic run, in the direction opposite of the predominate indicators, then naturally we are all going to start talking and looking for "reasons". For me, as I have said many times, the one true consistent force in this market is the manipulative ability of the market movers. Time and again, they are responsible for dramatic PA which may or may not have any reason behind it other than these forces can do what they do, and they do it whenever there is considerable profit in it for them. Next week, or by the end of this week, or maybe even by tomorrow, the price may be right back from whence the run started! ......a 500+ pip round trip and still leaving the market retailers wondering when, and in what direction, this pair is finally going to go!!!!!!! LOL!
  • #113,885
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:42pm Jun 23, 2009 6:42pm
Quoting traderathome
No attacks, Bablo. It is just when a currency pair makes a sudden and dramatic run, in the direction opposite of the predominate indicators, then naturally we are all going to start talking and looking for "reasons". For me, as I have said many times, the one true consistent force in this market is the manipulative ability of the market movers. Time and again, they are responsible for dramatic PA which may or may not have any reason behind it other than these forces can do what they do, and they do it whenever there is considerable profit in it...
I agree 100%. The post was directed to dooms dayers calling for the utter collapse of the USA. Unlikely from my view.
  • #113,886
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:42pm Jun 23, 2009 6:42pm
Quoting traderathome
If I understand you correctly, you are saying that bond buyers from outside the US are already expecting the Dollar to go lower, and so they are "protecting" themselves by participating in that drop, i.e., they are shorting the Dollar too. But it seems "expecting" is more risky than "assuring", which all bond buyers could do by BUYING the dollar instead! ?????
If the EU bond buyers hedge their position by shorting USD, they are assured that any USD movements will not affect their 1.15% profit. They don't expect the USD to go up or down, they just don't want to be bother by it.
  • #113,887
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:49pm Jun 23, 2009 6:49pm
Quoting Beacon
If the EU bond buyers hedge their position by shorting USD, they are assured that any USD movements will not affect their 1.15% profit. They don't expect the USD to go up or down, they just don't want to be bother by it.
That does not compute. If they short USD, yes, they make money if the USD falls, compensating in some way for the lost of value of the bond and its interest. But if the USD gains value, then they lose on the short trade and so are NOT fully hedged. So, if they are shorting USD, they must be doing so with a great deal more assurance it is going down, than up! And that is the issue.....how can they be so sure? Or, are bond buyers not shorting USD at all, and it is erroneous speculation?
  • #113,888
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:57pm Jun 23, 2009 6:57pm
Quoting bablo
Do you all really thing that the USA will collaps?

I see the rest of the world never prepared for this option of devaluation and out and out kaos.

Even the people that had been standing at the top of the hills screaming that a new world currency may replace the greenback.

After the Bric meeting : "US dollar will remain th world reserve curreny"

So much for the new world currency.

Todays move could have been caused by a number of things, one of which was purchasing EUROs to buy EZ bonds.

The other could have been...
it was a lot of things but this was the last of the day... before that nigeria pipelin/iran... ect.. plus just plain old stretching of the pair range 0-68.2 %...

u.s isnt gone no where any time soon.. one thing we have is natural resouces, enough to live without imports. we can grow oil. we can substitute gasoline.. it may be expencive, but can be done.. then we will see what currency has value.. just an example of what could happen under the right conditions.. oil would be cheap then. the truth is u.s. could survive either way..the exporting goverments are going to kill the golden goose..oil was 3 bucks pb /gold 35 po in the early 70ties.. the greatest transfer of wealth in human history is going on right now..one day we will take our bat and ball and go home..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,889
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:01pm Jun 23, 2009 7:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
u.s isnt gone no where any time soon.. one thing we have is natural resouces, enough to live without imports. we can grow oil. we can substitute gasoline.......
I would be willing to sell you a horse for a good 24 year old women.
  • #113,890
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:06pm Jun 23, 2009 7:06pm
Quoting Mr. Freeweed
I would be willing to sell you a horse for a good 24 year old women.
got a stable full of both now.. dont need more..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,891
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:12pm Jun 23, 2009 7:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
it was a lot of things but this was the last of the day... before that nigeria pipelin/iran... ect.. plus just plain old stretching of the pair range 0-68.2 %...

u.s isnt gone no where any time soon.. one thing we have is natural resouces, enough to live without imports. we can grow oil. we can substitute gasoline.. it may be expencive, but can be done.. then we will see what currency has value.. just an example of what could happen under the right conditions.. oil would be cheap then. the truth is u.s. could survive either way..the exporting...
Exactly,

If you owe the bank a million dollars and time are tough you have a problem. However the same tough times you owe the bank a Billion dollars the bank is in trouble.

This move today is nothing more than a storm in a glass of water.
  • #113,892
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:14pm Jun 23, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting bablo
Do you all really thing that the USA will collaps?

I see the rest of the world never prepared for this option of devaluation and out and out kaos.

Even the people that had been standing at the top of the hills screaming that a new world currency may replace the greenback.

After the Bric meeting : "US dollar will remain th world reserve curreny"

So much for the new world currency.

Todays move could have been caused by a number of things, one of which was purchasing EUROs to buy EZ bonds.

The other could have been the Trasury auction....
baically FED needs to come out strong dollar tomorrow or this summer could be a bad scene for USD economy - in turn bad for the world. China will not be able to continue to make up the 2/3 GDP from exports if worlds fails. US Treasuries are the safest still, right?
  • #113,893
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:21pm Jun 23, 2009 7:21pm
Quoting F.x.
I expect this is just a headfake before resumption of bear trend, so I'm still in my short at 3920.

I took it in hopes of hopping onboard the short-train as we hit the 100 SMA, which is typically a good place to enter along w/ the trend. This is a longer-term trade, so I'm hanging on to the position.
Weekly chart?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #113,894
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:28pm Jun 23, 2009 7:28pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Weekly chart?
The weekly shows price came up and tapped 89 sma several weeks ago, and since has remained just under 89 sma. And this run just brings price back up towards 89 sma. Looking at weekly one can get the feeling the price can turn on a dime and rush down........
  • #113,895
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:31pm Jun 23, 2009 7:31pm
every things is mention here at bloomberg, i think now is the time to count the retracement .


Buy Euro Versus Dollar, Targeting $1.40, Bank of Tokyo Says
Share | Email | Print | A A A


By Matthew Brown
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy the euro against the dollar if the European currency slips in the next 24 hours, Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ said.
The euro may “test” $1.40, Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo in London, wrote in a research report today, without giving a timeframe.
“ We are not convinced that the risk appetite phase is coming to an end,” Halpenny said. “There is certainly a degree of caution that did not exist a few weeks ago, but further positive economic data seems very likely.”
The euro fell 0.5 percent to $1.3866 as of 9:15 a.m. in London.
To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Brown in London at [email protected]
Last Updated: June 22, 2009 04:22 EDT
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  • #113,896
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:44pm Jun 23, 2009 7:44pm
Quoting traderathome
The weekly shows price came up and tapped 89 sma several weeks ago, and since has remained just under 89 sma. And this run just brings price back up towards 89 sma. Looking at weekly one can get the feeling the price can turn on a dime and rush down........
That's it really.

If that's what he sees, I don't blame him. Even if he turns out to be wrong, at least he's going to the beat of his own drum as opposed to too many p(shee?)eople here.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #113,897
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:50pm Jun 23, 2009 7:50pm
Gents,

This is where the Euro is going next. Pretty clear to these old eyes mate. Now a tad bit of a sell off to 1.397 is not out of bounds, but it is in the cards. Short the Yank.

GLGT All

TK
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  • #113,898
  • Jun 23, 2009 8:00pm Jun 23, 2009 8:00pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
baically FED needs to come out strong dollar tomorrow or this summer could be a bad scene for USD economy - in turn bad for the world. China will not be able to continue to make up the 2/3 GDP from exports if worlds fails. US Treasuries are the safest still, right?
Sorry for the delay: I would say yes simply because China can't get away from them. If they stop buying then the value of their reserves drops.

Hence no choice. That said the US has a couple of years to get the house work done.

Failing to do so may change the whole picture and Gators "Grown their Oil" might come true.

However for the time being my money is on the US.
  • #113,899
  • Jun 23, 2009 8:09pm Jun 23, 2009 8:09pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Gents,

This is where the Euro is going next. Pretty clear to these old eyes mate. Now a tad bit of a sell off to 1.397 is not out of bounds, but it is in the cards. Short the Yank.

GLGT All

TK
I cannot fathom your placement of the fib studies. Care to elaborate?
  • #113,900
  • Jun 23, 2009 8:16pm Jun 23, 2009 8:16pm
Finally shorts come into play?
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